Knowledge dynamics and domestic capabilities

1. IDENTIFYING HOT BRAZILIAN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: TECH MINING METHODS FOR RELATING SOURCES OF KNOWLEDGE AND EMERGING RESEARCH AREAS EU-SPRI CONFERENCE, 12-13 June 2012Hannes ToivanenVTT Technical Research Centre of FinlandEmail. Hannes.Toivanen@vtt.fi

2. Changing the date: View – Slide Master – change the date on the slide master uppermost Knowledge dynamics and domestic capabilities • What role do domestic capabilities play for countries trying to move towards knowledge economy? • National systems of innovation framework • Are countries focussing on strategic areas of science and technology in research? • Can we distinguish between or measure the geographic location of knowledge creation? • The objective is to clarify methods to identify with enhanced accuracy emerging trends within fields and countries • (1) To identify “hot” research fields within Brazilian research; • (2) Assess to what degree different “hot fields” rely on Brazilian knowledge bases vs. foreign ones.

3. Data • XML data from Thomsom Reuters: Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) papers with at least one Brazilian research address from years 2005-2009, forming SOURCE data set; • Total number of papers: 152,031. For this paper, only articles and proceedings were incluced, totalling 127,826. • In addition: CITING: All papes making citations to SOURCE papers (283,131 records); • Unique identifier linking CITED, SOURCE and CITING papers; • Note: not ISI indexed citation references not included in data; • Data delivery in May 2010 – Cut-off date for accumulating citations • Linking CITING papers, we included whole data that was classified as ”hot”. • To classify research fields, we use ISI Subject categories that are grouped in OECD Minor Fields • Reliability issues with the ISI Subject Categories (Leydesdorff & Rafols 2008; Boyack et al 2005); • Data processed with Vantage Point software

4. Changing the date: View – Slide Master – change the date on the slide master uppermost Measuring “domestic” and “foreign”contributions • Typically papers arecounted as a ”whole”, despite of howmanypeopleorinstitutionsarelisted as authors(Total records) • ->what is the amount of noisein authorships? • WedistuingishbetweenBrazilian and Foreigninstitutionalauthorship (Researchcountry) • Fractionaldomesticcount (FDC) vsFractionalothercount • Relativeshares of instancesof research addresses = institutional share of authorship • Institutionalauthorship: • Eachauthorgives at leastone research address; • Eachcompletelyidentical research address is indexed as one (e.g. differentdepartmentorstreet of sameorganization is indexed as 2 separateaddresses • Issues in estimatinginstitutionalauthorship: • Multipleauthorsfromoneaddressarecounted as onlyone; • One author with multipleaddresses is countedmultipletimes; • Is a proxy – reliability and accuracysubject to validation

5. Changing the date: View – Slide Master – change the date on the slide master uppermost Defining “hot papers” and “hot fields” • ”Hot papers” havequicklyimpact on research – number of citations • Canbeself-citationor ”genuine” citation • Citation as a ”relationship” between papers • Citations received withinnarrowtime-window • Times cited / Share of citations (to select ”hot papers”) • The share of citations received +/- 1 yearfrompublicationdatefrom total citations accumulatedby total national output • E.g. For Brazilian papers for 2005, weidentifyall papers thathave received citations by papers (only ISI indexed) published in 2004, 2005, and 2006. • The most 10% cited papers fromall articles with at leastoneauthorcomingfrom Brazil • ”Hot fields” (to classify ”hot papers”) • Becauseweincludejournal articles and conferenceprodeecings, weuse the ISI SubjectCategories, which total over 249 differentfields (2012) (alternativewouldbejournalfields) • Theseareconsolidated into 39 different OECD MinorFields

6. Defining Brazilian ”Hot papers” 2005, 2007, 2009 • The 10% from all annual articles and conference proceedings receiving most citations +/-1 year from publication date • Account about 40% all citations received in this period • Less than 5% of all papers

7. Top-20 Brazilian OECD Minorfields 05-07-09 (total records) Rank by 2005 totals

8. Top-20 Brazilian ”Hot Paper” fields 05-09 – Total Records Rank by 2005 total record rankings for ”hot paper” total records from here onwards (number of total records 2009) • ”Hot fields” aremoreconcentratedthanoverall research

9. Average share of ”hot papers” 05-07-09. Total records and fractional count shares. • Total records over-estimates ”hotness” • ”Hotness” revealedbyfractionaldomesticcount

10. Average share of ”total record” and ”BR FDC” ”hot papers” 05-07-09 from all citations received by ”hot papers” • Total records over-estimates ”hotness” • ”Hotness” revealedbyfractionaldomesticcount

11. Results and conclusions • Fractional domestic count reveals a lot of ”noise” total in record count of national ”hotness” • With FDC volume and rank of ”hotness” of papers and fields changes substantially • Comparison of total records vs Fractional domestic count ”hotness” • Physical sciences, astronomy declines from 1st to 5th (papers) • Chemical sciences advances from 5th to 1st (papers) and from 5th to 2nd (citations) • Emerging Brazilian ”hot fields” become visible (papers and citations): • Materials engineering, Environmental engineering, Other agricultural science Mathematics, Other engineering and technologies • Total record count is fine when ”hotness” is measured in global science • Regional strategic (systems of innovation) ”hotness” requires assessment of ”localness” in total volume and citations