Capabilities and Timeline

1. Nagorno-Karabahk War Timeline w/ GraphicsHISTORICAL BACKGROUND & BUILD UP – THE WAR (1992-1994) – PEACE PROCESS (incomplete)*1988 marks the beginning of violence, full fledged war began in 1992. Capabilities and Timeline

2. TIMELINE – Background History and Build Up to 1992 War HISTORICAL BACKGROUND: • 1828 - Russian Tsar created an Armenian province (excluding Karabakh). • 1917 – Bolshevik Revolution - Az and Arm both become independent in 1918, both claim Karabakh*1920 - Russia-Soviet Empire re-established control. • Armenians lobbied the Soviet empire to join Karabakh to Armenia, Stalin disagreed (Soviet economic system and Turkish relations played a part). • 1923 – the region became the NagornoKarabakh Autonomous Oblast, part of Az with a degree of self rule. • 1936 Soviet Constitution continued the designation. BUILD UP – Demise of Russia surfaces tensions, maneuverings begin. • 1985 – Gorbachev’s glasnost “unleashed long-suppressed hostility” btwnAz and Arm. • 1987, again the Armenians petitioned for the transfer of the region to Arm. • Reports of evictions spark protests…. Protests turn violent…. It escalates. There’s political turmoil. Refugees start going to their perspective countries (w/ Azeris also going to Iran or Nakhicheva (Azeri exclave to the west of Armenia). • 1988 - in a bold maneuver, the Karabakh government “succeeds” from Azerbaijan, technically against the Soviet Constitution. Violence and dual-exodus worsens, WAR OFFICIALLY STARTS. • Late 1988 - Moscow sends in Interior Ministry troops to impose martial law in some areas. • Reports of evictions spark protests…. Protests turn violent…. It escalates. There’s political turmoil. Refugees start going to their perspective countries (w/ Azeris also going to Iran or Nakhicheva (Azeri exclave to the west of Armenia). • Army Troops follow in May 1989. • Dec 1989 – Armenian Supreme Soviet declared Karabakh a part of Armenia. • Az Pop Front (PF) began rail blockade of Armenia and Karabakh – restricting fuel and food. • Anit-Armenian violence occurred in Bak and Sumgait. • Soviet Army occupation of Baku begins. Many Azeri’s day. • Sep 1991 – Following the Moscow Coup Attempt – Moscow declared it would no longer support Azerbaijani military action in Karabakh. • Nov 1991 – Azerbaijan nullifies Karabakh’s autonomous status and declares direct rule on the region. • Dec 1991 – DEMISE OF THE SOVIET UNIION, withdrawal of Soviet troops from Karabakh further endowing Karabakh forces with arms. • Jan 1992 – The NagornoKarabakh Republic declares independence. • Note: The independence of NKR has not been recognized by any country, including Armenia.

3. Timeline – Full Fledged War (1992-1994) Red Borders: represent the historical N-K boundaries. FULL FLEDGED WAR PHASE I: Karabakh and Armenian Early Offensive • Jan 1992 – Flush with new arms, Karabakh forces launch an Karabakh-Armenian early offensive, war begins. • Feb 1992, Armenians overanKhojlay, 2nd largest Azeri town. Azeri outrage leads to ouster of the Az president in March. • In the midst of turmoil in Baku, Armenians take Shusha, the last Azeri town in Karabakh, provockiing another political crisis and government ouster in Baku. Which Armenia takes advantage of by launching an offensive in Nakhichevan. • Offensive completes with the Karabakh and Armenian forces securing the Lachin corridor. • May 1992 – With Baku in the poiltical turmoil again, Armenia launches separate offensive against Nakhichevan(Azeri exclave), 30,000 were displaced, International Attention is called to the event. • Turkey and Iran denounce, U.S. issues a strong statement. • NATO, EC, CSCE declare violations of territorial integrity and use of force as unacceptable. Khojlay Stepanakert Lachin Corridor Shusa/Suiza Aremenia Offensive Shaded areas represent area taken over at one point (some still held) in the later years of the 1988-1994 War Autonomous Republic of Nakhchivan– Exclave of Azerbaijan

4. Timeline – Full Fledged War (1992-1994) THE WAR PHASE II: Azerbaijan has trouble recapturing anything, Armenians surge out and capture territory. Armenian army supports with direct fire across border, arms, etc. • Jun 1992 –an Azerbaijan Offensive to reclaim Karabakh begins. Armenians launch a Karabakh (and Armenia) counteroffensive. • AZERBAIJAN OFFENSIVE: LITTLE GAINS • Aug 1992, Azeris capture Artsvachsen (minute little Northern pocket of sovereign Armenia within Azerbaijan) and attempts to recapture Lachin and Susha. • ARMENIAN OFFENSIVE: TERRITORY BTWN NK and ARMENIA TAKEN, FORCES PUSH EAST INTO AZERI PROPER. • By March 1993, Armenians have seized Kelbajar and a swath of the Azeri territory between NK and Armenia • In Kelbajar, Armenian miltiaryasissts across the border with heavy weaponry and barrages. Thousands of Azeri’s are displaced. • Armenians then attacked Fizuli to the SE of NK and areas south of Karabakh, claiming they were responding to an Azeri build up. Artsvachsen Khojlay Stepanakert Kelbajar Aghdam Armenia Military Shusa/Suiza Lachin Fizuli

5. Timeline – Full Fledged War (1992-1994) • THE WAR PHASE III: Armenian supported Karabakh forces are grabbing land in the face of growing international pressure. • June 1993 – As another Azeri president was deposed, Karabakh forces launch an Eastern Offensive, seizing Mardakert and Aghdam. • Strong condemnation as their was little grounds for “self defense”. • Aug 1993, Armenians took Fizuli and territory to the Southwest of NK, next to the Iranian border. • Moved South to seize Jebrail after Azeris fled in the face of assaults. Armenians threatened Kubatli (abandoned), Zangelan, and Goradiz. • In the face of international condemnation and warnings, Armenians raze Goradiz and attack Zangelan, even reaching the Aras River and taking a 40km stretch of the Iranian-Azeri frontier. • It drove 30K Azeris into Iran. • Oct 1993, Zangelan fell • July 1993 International reactions over Karabakh-Armenian Offensive • Iran denounced and said it could not remain indifferent, Iran reinforced border with Iranian troops and IRG. • Turkey issued warnings and reinforced the border, and placed troops on alert. • Russia demanded that military action cease, noting that the Armenians attacks in Karabakh were unjustified as there was no threat posed. Also moved troops to Azeri border. Artsvachsen Khojlay Stepanakert Kelbajar Arms, supplies Shusa/Suiza Fizuli Arms, supplies Jebrail Zangelan Goradiz

6. Timeline – Full Fledged War (1992-1994) Subway Bombing in Baku, Armenian militants blamed. THE WAR PHASE IV: Armenian defends new territory against the first determined Azerbaijan offensive. Ceasefire stops it at the origninal Eastern border, but swath of Western azeriterritory is now controlled by Armenians and cleansed of many Azeris. • Nov 1993 – new Azeri President HaidarAliyev criticizes army, sacks commanders, and called on veterans to man the army. • Dec 1993 – New Azeri Offensive – Regains territory • -Chased Karabakh forces from mountains around Aghdam. • heights in the Mardakert region. • Unable to reclaim Fizuli. • Early 1994, Azeris regained Goradiz and positions north of Kelbajar, suffering heavy losses. • Baku blames Armenians for subway bombing in March. • -Armenians reported Azeri air raids on Stepanakert and along the border, heated action created 50,000 new Azeri refugees. • May 1994 – CEASE FIRE Khojlay Kelbajar Aghdam Arms, supplies B B B Stepanakert B Lachin Arms, supplies Jebrail Fizuli Zangelan

7. Timeline – Peace Process • Since the beginning, CSCE had been calling for a peace conference in Belarus with “Minsk Group” countries. It was not held. • Apr 1993 - UN SC RES 822 – demanded: • Immediate cessation of hostilities • Withdrawal of occupying forces from Kelbajar and other areas. • Resumption of CSCE negotiations • Apr 1993, another UN SC RES (85): • CondemsArmenian seizure of Aghdam and other areas. • Urges Armenia to influence Karabakh to comply. • May 1993, US, Russia, Turkey proposed an implementation plan, but parties did not agree. • Aug 1993 – UN SC demanded withdrawal of occupying forces from Fizuli, Kelbajar, and Aghdam. Called of Armenia to use it’s “unique influence”. • Oct 1993 – UN SC RES 874 called for perm cease-fire, withdrawal timeline, and removal of communication and transportation obstacles. • Nov 1993 – Minsk Group asserts that a CSCE force would have to be supervised by the CSCE and open to participation by all CSCE members. • The Minks Group did not endorse talks sponsored by Russia or Russia’s offer of troops to separate the combatants. • Called for the withdrawal from territory seized since Oct 21. • Nov 1993 – Azerbaijan rejects the measures for failing to mention Lachin and Shusha and Karabakh Azeri rights • It also rejects Russian troops. • Nov 1993 – Armenia and Karabakh accept a Russian troop offer and CSCE timetable. • Meanwhile another UN SC RES (884) is passed, expressing alarm at continued hostilities, UN tries to tell Armenia to seriously stop. • RESEARCH ENDS HERE

8. RESEARCH ENDS HERE – SUMMARY & THOUGHTS REMAINING RESEARCH: -Exact array of forces (# troops, weapons, technology), -then and now. -Azeribaijan military: Flush with oil-gas profits and with a chip on it’s shoulder, Azerbaijan has since quadrupuled its military spending, and will have more troops, technology, and confidence when the NK hostilities resume. THOUGHTS: -Where we’re wrong: Shutting down the Lachin corridor is really hard for the Azeris. If they can continuously bomb it (need to check Azeri AF capability), it could be an effective blockade. But to get to the corridor and control it, you have to fight through a lot of Armenian-Karabahk cities. -Hard to ascertain the arms of the Karabakh Forces: In the NK War the Armenia and the NK Armenians had arms left by the Soviet military. The Karabakh forces were also supplied by Armenia. One would presume Armenia is sending Karabakh weaponry in the face of Azerbaijan’s growing military might. But Armenia is poor. And cannot keep its own military on par with Azerbaijan’s.