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When I am 64… Ageing in New Zealand in the 21 st Century

Explore the demographic changes and implications of ageing in New Zealand in the 21st century. Discover the impacts on population, family structures, employment, healthcare, and more. Join Professor Paul Spoonley at U3A Browns Bay on March 5, 2019.

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When I am 64… Ageing in New Zealand in the 21 st Century

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  1. When I am 64… Ageing in New Zealand in the 21st Century PAULSPOONLEY Pro Vice-chancellor CollegeofHumanitiesandSocial Sciences U3A Browns Bay 5 March 2019

  2. Ageing Population (65+) 1980 – 2012 (doubled) 2013 – 2025 (doubled) % of Population 1981 7% 2013 14% 2030s 25% 2013 – 600,000 2020s – 1.1 million “Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything” (Shakespeare)

  3. #1 Demography Structural ageing of population (and workforce?) Sub-replacement fertility(2.1 births per woman, now 1.7) Delayed births (30 years plus) Employment vs children

  4. Twentieth Century Family Nuclear family (parents plus 3 children, male breadwinner) Rate of marriage high (38 marriages per 1000) Median average of marriage: 22 yrs (women) Divorce rate: 3 per 1000 marriages De facto relationships: 11% by age of 30 yrs Sole parents: 5% of all households

  5. Twenty-first Century Family Marriage rates declining: 13.5 (38) marriages per 1000 not married Average age of marriage: 30 yrs Most children born to women aged 30-34 yrs in 2017 De facto relationships: 38% (11%) Divorce rate: 12% (half remarry other divorced people) Sole parents: 28% (5%)

  6. PM, Clark and Neve First birth at age 37 yrs (40 yrs for partner) Working mother, caregiver father One child?

  7. #2 Demography More 65+ than 0-14 year olds Fewer entering workforce – and fewer workers Out-migration from regions of young adults Young-dominant to older-dominant

  8. Demographic Drivers/Changes Longevity Average life expectancy 90+ Living alone (no. of adults without children will double by 2030) Multigenerational households

  9. #3 Demography Two-thirds of regions will experience populations stagnation or decline (56 out of 67 TAs) More 65+ than 0-14 year olds Immigration + fertility + ageing Spill-over effects (Hamilton/Tauranga)

  10. Regional Concentrations (30% of 65+) 2018 Thames-Coromandel Kapiti Coast Central Otago 2020s Nelson Wairarapa Whanganui West Coast 40% Manawatu-Whanganuirate payers on fixed incomes

  11. 65 years… No Longer a Retirement Age (Silver Producers) 23% in paid employment Encore careers Volunteers Utilise knowledge, skills. How? But… more now receive NZ Superannuation (17%) than earn an income from a business or are self-employed

  12. Silver Economy Visible, disposable income Late life economies Cruise ships Bike trails U3A

  13. New Demands, New Costs (Silver Consumers) 40% of government expenditure spent on age-related ($30b by late 2020s) Old age health provision Frailty and eldercare Declining dependence ratios • Arthritis • Heart disease • Stroke • Diabetes • Dementia

  14. What Should We do? Provide appropriate housing Provide appropriate houses Provide appropriate transport Provide appropriate services Reduce poverty

  15. In the Next Decade The growth in 65+ will account for most of population growth in 56 out of 67 territorial authorities 65+ will be larger than 0-14 age group More workers will retire than enter the workforce Immigration will contribute more to population growth – if it continues to remain high

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