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Introduction to Geoengineering for Ecologists

Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering Workshop Scripps, 31 Jan 2011. Introduction to Geoengineering for Ecologists. Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu. Reuters: David Gray. www.sit.ac.nz. Reuters: David Gray.

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Introduction to Geoengineering for Ecologists

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  1. Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering WorkshopScripps, 31 Jan 2011 Introduction to Geoengineering for Ecologists Ken CaldeiraCarnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecologykcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu

  2. Reuters: David Gray

  3. www.sit.ac.nz Reuters: David Gray

  4. SolarRadiationManagement options CarbonDioxideRemoval options

  5. Desire forimprovedwell-being Conservation Impacts on humans and Demand for goods and services ecosystems Adaptation Efficiency Climate change & ocean Demand for energy acidification CO2 in CO2 emissions Climateengineering Low-carbonenergy atmosphere Carbon dioxide removal

  6. Temperatures continue to increase throughout thiscentury in every plausible emissions scenario There is no practical way for emissions reduction to reduce temperatures this century IPCC TAR

  7. Volcanoes caused global cooling by putting dust in the stratosphere Soden et al., 2002 Mt. Pinatubo

  8. Temperature effects of doubled CO2 Statistical significance ΔTemperature Caldeira and Wood, 2008

  9. Temperature effects of doubled CO2 with a uniform deflection of 1.84% of sunlight Statistical significance ΔTemperature Caldeira and Wood, 2008

  10. Precipitation effects of doubled CO2 Caldeira and Wood, 2008

  11. Temperature effects of doubled CO2 with a uniform deflection of 1.84% of sunlight Caldeira and Wood, 2008

  12. Zonal average precipitation and temperature Caldeira and Wood, 2008

  13. In HadCM3L, a coarse-resolution atmosphere-ocean GCM, perform outer product of (27) simulations starting from -- 3 different initial conditions (1xCO2, 2xCO2, 4xCO2) -- 3 different CO2 levels (1xCO2, 2xCO2, 4xCO2) -- 3 different solar intensity levels (-2CO2eq, normal, +2CO2eq) Perform linear regressions to separate dependencies on -- global mean temperature, -- CO2-concentration, and -- solar intensity. Cao et al, in prep.

  14. C – response per CO2-doubling S – response per equiv. solar increase T – response per C warming Cao et al, in prep.

  15. C – response per CO2-doubling S – response per equiv. solar increase T – response per C warming Cao et al, in prep.

  16. C – response per CO2-doubling S – response per equiv. solar increase T – response per C warming Cao et al, in prep.

  17. Main effects • High CO2 • Lower temperature • Secondary effects • - Changes in PAR • - Changes in precip/evap • Not considered • Changes in UV • Diffuse radiation • - Everything else

  18. Trees Crops C4 Grasses Positive down

  19. Mt. Pinatubo and global ozone Mt. Pinatubo

  20. Concluding suggestions • Consider consequences if people are deploying measures thoughtfully • Compare “geoengineered” state to both “natural” state of the system and the perturbed state in the absence of “geoengineering”

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