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Fuel and Refining Trends Presentation at Louisiana State University

Fuel and Refining Trends Presentation at Louisiana State University. Fred Stiers General Manager, Lake Charles Refinery October 22, 2004. World Energy Demand Outlook. Million Tons of Oil Equivalent. Source: International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook”.

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Fuel and Refining Trends Presentation at Louisiana State University

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  1. Fuel and Refining TrendsPresentation at Louisiana State University Fred StiersGeneral Manager, Lake Charles Refinery October 22, 2004

  2. World Energy Demand Outlook Million Tons of Oil Equivalent Source: International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook”

  3. U.S. Price Threshold for ChangeSurvey by CNW Marketing Research Percent Survey measures the percent of new car owners who would buy a new, more fuel-efficient car immediately or eventually based on the price of gasoline. Gasoline Price ($ per Gallon) Survey of 3,981 car owners nationwide, assuming price remains for 6 months

  4. U.S. Consumer Spending on Energy as a Percentage of Disposable Income Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

  5. Auto Trends Hybrid Electric Toyota Prirus M.T. Car of the Year Diesel CarEuropean Automakers Ramping Up Fuel Cell VehiclesMany Challenges to Overcome MSRP: $20,510 Hybrid System Mfg. Cost: $2500-3500 55 mpg avg city/highway 45 mpg actual? • Safety • Inadequate nat gas as H2 source • Cost too high by a factor of 10 VW Passat diesel (return after 8 years) NOX concerns for U.S.

  6. U.S. Refining Capacity Capacity/Demand (million barrels per day) Number of Refineries Number of Refineries Demand Distillation Capacity Source: U.S. DOE, API, P&G

  7. Imports represent approximately 10% of today’s U.S. gasoline demand! 845 520 Source data: U.S. EIA

  8. U.S. Refinery Capacity Utilization 90% Percent Utilization Forecast (DOE) History Gross input to refineries / operable capacity Source: U.S. Department of Energy

  9. U.S. Refining Trends • Capital money for US refining has been spent to meet changing fuel specification rather than build additional capacity (estimated $20 Billion) • LSG and ULSD • the 2% RFG oxygen mandate • Local/regional boutique fuels

  10. U.S. Gasoline Requirements

  11. U.S. RefiningTrends • Capital money for US refining has been spent to meet changing fuel specification rather than build additional capacity (estimated $20 Billion) • LSG and ULSD • the 2% RFG oxygen mandate • Local/regional boutique fuels • Public demand continues to increase; however, so does “not in my backyard” resistance to refinery and infrastructure expansions • Permitting difficulties • Litigation from upsets and environmental issues

  12. Locations of U.S. Refineries 2004

  13. U.S. Refining Concerns • Capital money for US refining has been spent to meet changing fuel specification rather than build additional capacity (estimated $20 Billion) • LSG and ULSD • the 2% RFG oxygen mandate • Local/regional boutique fuels • Public demand continues to increase; however, so does “not in my backyard” resistance to refinery and infrastructure expansions • Permitting difficulties • Litigation from upsets and environmental issues • Investment in refining capacity post Clean Fuels will require a sustained trend of strong return on capital employed.

  14. Thanks for the opportunity !

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