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Scenario modelling for land use evolution

Scenario modelling for land use evolution. Hedwig van Delden, RIKS ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050 Workshop at Comittee of the Regions 11 October 2013, Brussels. Questions.

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Scenario modelling for land use evolution

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  1. Scenario modelling for land use evolution Hedwig van Delden, RIKS ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050 Workshop at Comittee of the Regions 11 October 2013,Brussels

  2. Questions • How will the current land use pattern evolve over time, given the current behaviour of spatial actors? • How will spatial policies influence future land use dynamics? • How will assumptions on socioeconomics and changes in behaviour influence future land use dynamics?

  3. The Metronamica model

  4. Zoning Land use Regional demands Land use at time T+1 & Interaction weights & Suitability Potential for change Accessibility & & = Land use change over time Transition Rule Cells change to land-use with highest potential until regional demands are met. Time Loop

  5. Employment 2010-2030 by MASST3 Probability for Urbanization Baseline 2050

  6. Scenario assumptions compared to baseline

  7. Employment 2010-2030 by MASST3 Difference in Urban Surface Scenario A and Baseline (2030)

  8. Employment 2010-2030 by MASST3 Difference in Urban Surface Scenario C and Baseline (2030)

  9. Employment 2010-2030 by MASST3 Agriculture in HNV farmland Scenario C Regions vs Baseline (2030)

  10. Employment 2010-2030 by MASST3 Agriculture in HNV farmland Scenario B Cities vs Baseline (2030)

  11. Key messages • To maximize effects of policies, it is important to consider the context in which they operate and their effects at a detailed spatial level • Urban sprawl is a powerful process. To mitigate uncontrolled sprawl, strong zoning regulations and enforcement are necessary. Areas near existing cities and along the (Mediterranean) coast are most under pressure • Socio-economic demands will drive metropoles to higher density levels than the current ones • Increase of land area for urban use isn’t inherently constrained by administrative boundaries. Policy interventions need to consider spill-over effects on neighbouring regions

  12. Considerations for the Vision 2050 • What is the future of the agricultural areas: will the ongoing decline provide more space for nature or will it be used for food security and/or bio-energy? • Should valuable landscapes be protected through agricultural subsidies? • Should metropoles densify or should spill-overs to neighbouring regions be allowed or even stimulated? • Could the development of green belts be a solution to minimize urban sprawl and increase the quality of life?

  13. Further information: www.et2050.eu (working documents) hvdelden@riks.nl

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