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JIPOE KULLAAW SEMINAR FOXTROT

JIPOE KULLAAW SEMINAR FOXTROT. 1. DEFINING THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT 2. DESCRIBING THE OPNL ENVIRONMENT 3. EVALUATING THE ADVERSARY 4. DETERMINING THE ADVERSARY’S COURSES OF ACTIONS (COAs). JIPOE STEPS. DEFINING THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT. AREA OF INTEREST AREA OF INFLUENCE

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JIPOE KULLAAW SEMINAR FOXTROT

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  1. JIPOE KULLAAWSEMINAR FOXTROT

  2. 1. DEFINING THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT2. DESCRIBING THE OPNL ENVIRONMENT3. EVALUATING THE ADVERSARY4. DETERMINING THE ADVERSARY’S COURSES OF ACTIONS (COAs) JIPOE STEPS

  3. DEFINING THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT • AREA OF INTEREST • AREA OF INFLUENCE • AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY • JOA(based on para 6- CN Guidance dated 04 Jul 14) • SIGNIFICANT CHARACTERISTICS OF OPNL ENVIRONMENT • INITIAL INFORMATION COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

  4. AREA OF INTEREST • CONSISTS OF: • NOLCOM AOR: • ILOCOS REGION • CAGAYAN VALLEY REGION • CORDILLERA REGION • CENTRAL LUZON REGION • LACUHA ISLAND PROVINCE • SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF NUVARIA (SRN) • DEVORA ISLAND Taklubu Reef South Basin

  5. AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY • CONSISTS OF: • AOR OF NOLCOM • ILOCOS REGION • CAGAYAN VALLEY REGION (INCLUDING LACUHA ISLAND PROVINCE) • CORDILLERA REGION • CENTRAL LUZON REGION Taklubu Reef South Basin

  6. Area of Responsibility

  7. AREA OF INFLUENCE • CONSISTS OF: • NE LUZON SPODs & APODs • LACUHA ISLAND PROVINCE • EXTENDS UP TO DEVORA ISLAND AND NW PART OF NUVARIA (RAMEY AIRBASE) Taklubu Reef South Basin

  8. PROPOSED JOA • PROPOSED JOA WILL BE: • NE LUZON SPODs & APODs • LACUHA ISLAND PROVINCE • PHL EEZ (200 NM) EAST, NORTH AND SOUTH OF LACUHA • CONTAGIOUS AND TERRITORIAL WATERS WEST OF LACUHA ISLAND • AIRSPACES IN LACUHA AND NE LUZON Taklubu Reef South Basin

  9. Taklubu Reef PROPOSED JOA 100NM South Basin F-27 X 1

  10. SIGNIFICANT CHARACTERISTICS OF PROPOSED JOA(PMESII)

  11. POLITICAL • GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION: • MAURINII ANTONIO DE LOPEZ INSTALLED AS PRESIDENT OF SRN IN 2003 AFTER A BLOODY COUP DE ETAT • DE LOPEZ INCREASED MILITARY SPENDING IN NAF & RENEWED NATIONALISM FOR THE CLAIM OF LACUHA • THE PHL ASKED ASSISTANCE FROM THE US THROUGH THE MDT PROPOSED JOA

  12. POLITICAL • GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION: • FEB 2014 - NUVARIAN AMBASSADOR TO PHL WAS RECALLED • RECALLED NUVARIANS FROM THE PHL PROPOSED JOA

  13. POLITICAL • Established as a province in 1965 - RA 11175 • Capital: Sta Cruz town • Internationally recognized as an island province of Cagayan, Philippines • Continuously claimed by Nuvaria as part of its territory Lacuha Island Gasan

  14. POLITICAL • 6 Municipalities: • Mogpog, Sta Cruz, Boac, Gasan, Buenavista, and Torrijos • Municipalities headed by Mayor. • Gov. MagtanggolMagtapat– holds office in Tuguegarao • l2 Provl Board members • 2 Congressional Districts

  15. POLITICAL • Major Political Parties: • Nacionalista Party • Liberal Party • Lakas-NUCD • Kampi • Partidong MasangPil • KilusangBagongLipunan Lacuha Island Gasan

  16. MILITARY – FRIENDLY • No AFP units in Lacuha Island at present • PPSC stationed in Sta Cruz (350 PNP) PNP

  17. NOLCOM MAINLAND FORCES 5thInfDiv, PA 7thInfDiv, PA 702ndInfBde, 7ID, PA 501stInfBde, 5ID, PA 502ndInfBde, 5ID, PA 503rdInfBde, 5ID, PA 703rdInfBde, 7ID, PA Naval Forces Northern Luzon Brgy San Juan Baño, Arayat, Pampanga Brgy San Isidro Norte, Binmaley, Pangasinan BrgyCalanan, Tabuk City, Kalinga BrgyBanguinge, Kiangan, Ifugao Camp MelchorDela Cruz, Upi, Gamu, Isabela BrgySuyong, Echague, Isabela Fort Ramon Magsaysay, Palayan City, Nueva Ecija NBCO, Brgy San Vicente, Sta Ana, Cagayan NSEO, Poro Point, San Fernando, La Union CAR Region I Region II TOGs, 1AD TOG1,Loakan Airport, Baguio City TOG2,School,Cauyan City, Isabela Region III TOG3, Camp Aquino, San Miguel, Tarlac City

  18. MILITARY – FRIENDLY • JTF-NCR (Rapid Reaction Force) • 1 Inf Bn (Airmobile ops capable) • 1 Mech InfBn • 1 Marine Bn (Amphi Ops capable) • 1 Squadron Tactical Helis • 1 Squadron CAS A/cft • 1 Heavy Airlift A/cft • 1 Strategic Sealift Vessel

  19. MILITARY – ADVERSARY • NUVARIAN ARMED FORCES (NAF) • MOD LOCATED IN SAN JUAN • GHQ AND FLEET HQS LOCATED AT SABANA SECA NAVAL BASE • NAVAL INFANTRY HQ & BDES LOCATED AT CAMP SANTIAGO MARINE BASE • AIR FORCE HQ & 5TH & 6TH BOMBER WINGS LOCATED AT RAMEY AIR BASE • 1ST, 2ND, 3RD,& 4TH FIGHTER WINGS LOCATED AT BUCHANAN AIR STATION • ARMY HQ & ALL ARMY BDES LOCATED AT FORT ALLEN • ESTABLISHING CYBERWARFARE CAPABILITIES SabanaSeca Naval Base Ramey Air Base NUVARIA Buchanan Air Station Camp Santiago Marine Base Fort Allen

  20. MILITARY – ADVERSARY NAF FORCES THREATENING TO INVADE LACUHA ISLAND • NAF JTF • West NuvarianFleet • 7thAir Force Group • 2ndNaval InfBde • NuvarianSPF

  21. ECONOMIC • AGRICULTURE - MAIN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (48% EMPLOYED) • 58% OF THE TOTAL LAND AREA (95,925 Has.) ARE CULTIVATED; 66% - COCONUTS; 18% PALAY • FISHING IS THE NEXT SOURCE OF INCOME AFTER FARMING; 75% SHIPPED OUTSIDE THE PROVINCE

  22. ECONOMIC • NO SHOPPING MALLS • NO MULTINATIONAL COMPANIES • NINE COMMERCIAL BANKS • HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 11.8% IN 2005 • POPULATION BELOW POVERTY LEVEL: 44.8% (2008)

  23. SOCIAL • TOTAL POPULATION AS OF 2010 IS 227,828 • COMPOSITION OF TRIBES: • 70% IVATANS • 20% ILONGOTS • 10% IBANAGS • SRN ASSERTS THAT MORE THAN HALF THE POPULATION ARE OF NUVARIAN DESCENT

  24. INFRASTRUCTURE • AIRPORT LOCATED AT GASAN • WATER SYTEM: • LEVEL II SYSTEM (PIPED WATER W/ COMMUNAL WATER POINT IN TOWN AREAS • LEVEL I (STAND ALONE WATER POINTS (HAND PUMPS, WELLS) IN RURAL AREAS • POWER SYSTEM: • 14.35 MW W/ AVE CAPACITY OF 200 KW • DIESEL POWERED. Lacuha Island GasanAirport Gasan

  25. INFRASTRUCTURE • PORTS LOCATED AT BALANACAN, STA CRUZ, GASAN, AND BOAC: • BERTHING AREA/S: TWO (2) RORO RAMPS – 11.00M X 9.00MR.C. WHARF – 83 LN.M. • DRAFT: TWO (2) RORO RAMPS – 9.00M DEEPR.C. WHARF – 9.00M DEEP Balanacan Port BoacPort Santa Cruz Port Gasan Port

  26. INFRASTRUCTURE – HEALTH • PROVINCIAL HOSPITAL IN BOAC - 100-BED CAPACITY • STA CRUZ DISTRICT HOSPITAL - 25-BED CAPACITY • TORRIJOS MUNICIPAL HOSPITAL - 10-BED CAPACITY Lacuha Island

  27. INFRASTRUCTURE – PRISON Provincial Jail

  28. MSR • 120 -KM CIRCUMFERENTIAL ROAD • 98 PERCENT - ALL-WEATHER ROAD • NEARLY 100 PERCENT ARE WELL-PAVED.

  29. INFORMATION • GLOBE AND SMART • WITH DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES

  30. INITIAL INFORMATION COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS • Adversary • Where will the lodgement forces of NAF JTF land? • What are the targeted military objectives of the NAF JTF in Lacuha and in mainland NLuzon? • What is the current locations of the NAF UAVs and the 2 spy ships spotted in Taklubu reef? • Are all forces of NAF JTF deployed already at Fleet base Kailua Kona in Devora Island?

  31. INITIAL INFORMATION COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS • Operational Environment • What are the expected weather conditions in the next two weeks? • What is the reaction of the majority of local populace in Lacuha for the impending Nuvarian invasion? • What political parties/organisations/entities in Lacuha are supportive of the Nuvarian claim?

  32. DESCRIBING THE IMPACT OF THE OPERATIONAL EVIRONMENT • PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS • HUMAN TERRAIN ANALYSIS • OTHER STAKEHOLDERS • INFORMATIONAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS • METEOROLOGICAL & OCEANAGRAPHIC (METOC) ANALYSIS • OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL DEDUCTIONS • NODE LINK ANALYSIS

  33. PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS GEOGRAPHY • Lakuha is a “heart-shape” island province of PH • Total Land area = 95,258 Ha • NE of the PH approx. 100 miles from mainland Luzon • Highest peak Mount Malindig - 1,157 m (3,796 ft.) ASL, located in the southern tip of the island Lacuha Island Gasan

  34. PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS GEOGRAPHY • Various cave occupies the province (Grand Bathala Cave & San Isidro Cave with complex subterranean river • Very advantageous for defensive operations. Lacuha Island Gasan

  35. PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS LAND DIMENSION • Approx. 83% - hills and mountains area • 17% built-up areas, coastal, swamp, and marshy areas • Terrain is rocky but gentle and undulating • Mountainous interior - home to rare and endangered flora and fauna. Lacuha Island Gasan

  36. PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS LAND DIMENSION • Hills drop steeply - maximum elevation of 1,157 m (3,796 ft) ASL • Ideal for sustained defensive operations Lacuha Island Gasan

  37. PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS LAND DIMENSION LEGEND: • HILLS AND MOUNTAINS • BUILT-UP AREAS • COASTAL, SWAMP, AND MARSHY AREAS • PLAIN/FLAT • MT. MALINDIG/ HIGHEST PEAK Lacuha Island Gasan

  38. PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS LAND DIMENSION Lacuha Island LEGEND: • RESTRICTED TERRAIN • SEVERELY RESTRICTED TERRAIN Gasan

  39. PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS MARITIME DOMAIN • Lacuha is home to myriad of corals and sea creatures • Sea condition is calm especially during summer and SE monsoon. Lacuha Island Gasan

  40. PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS MARITIME DIMENSION • SPODS • BALANACAN – LSV • CAWIT – LSV • LAYLAY - PG • BUYABOD - PG • GASAN - PG • STA CRUZ – LSV • TORRIJOS – PG Lacuha Island Gasan

  41. PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS AIR AND SPACE DOMAIN • APODS • MASIGA – C130 CAPABLE • TAPIAN – C130 CAPABLE • GASAN- C130 CAPABLE Lacuha Island Gasan

  42. PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS AIR AND SPACE DIMENSION ADIZ ADIZ ADIZ ADIZ

  43. HUMAN TERRAIN ANALYSIS POPULATION - 227,000 ETHNIC COMPOSITION: 70% IVATANS; 20% ILONGOTS; &10% IBANAGS - PURELY FILIPINO AND WILL RESIST NUV INVASION POPULATION BELOW POVERTY LEVEL :44.8% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE :11.8% HIGH POVERTY INCIDENCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ENEMY ISA

  44. HUMAN TERRAIN ANALYSIS PEACE-LOVING PEOPLE (ONLY 350 PNP PERSONNEL MAINTAIN PEACE AND ORDER) PEOPLE OF LACUHA ARE NOTABLY SERIOUS IN THEIR EXERCISE OF SUFFRAGE INDICATING STRONG PATRIOTIC SENSE

  45. OTHER STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSIS UN: DOES NOT SUPPORT THE NUVARIAN CLAIM OVER LACUHA ISLAND- THIS COULD MAKE THE NUVARIAN LEADERSHIP RESORT TO DESPERATE MEASURES. US: SUPPORTS THE DIPLOMATIC AND PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF THE TERRITORIAL DISPUTE - THIS COULD MEAN NON-INTERVENTION BY THE US IN THE EVENT OF A MILITARY ACTION BY NUV IN LACUHA.

  46. OTHER STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSIS NUVARIAN TOURISTS AND INVESTORS IN THE PH- WILL LIKELY FLEE AND WILL PULL OUT THEIR PORTFOLIOS FILIPINO WORKFORCE AT NUV FACTORIES AND HOUSEHOLDS: PH WILL HAVE TO PLAN FOR CONTINGENCY EVACUATION

  47. OTHER STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSIS OIL EXPLORATION INDUSTRY- SITUATION MAY CAUSE INVESTMENT JITTERY AND MAY PROPEL OIL PRICES TO SHOOT UP INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY (IC)- FIRM COLLECTIVE POSTURE BY THE IC UNDER DURESS OF ECONOMIC OR MILITARY SANCTIONS COULD BE A DETERRENT TO HOSTILE ACTIONS

  48. OTHER STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSIS TOURIST/HOTEL INDUSTRY- WILL SIGNIFICANTLY FEEL THE INDIRECT BRUNT OF THE CONFLICT WITH LOWER REVENUES PNP, COASTGUARD AND PARA-MILITARY FORCES- MAY BE DEPLOYED AND WILL TAKE A SECONDARY SUPPORT ROLE TO THE AFP EFFORTS.

  49. INFORMATION TERRAIN ANALYSIS DOMESTIC & INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES IS PROVIDED BY GLOBE AND SMART INTERNET ALLOWS FOR INTERCONNECTIVITY AND ACCESS TO NON-MILITARY OPEN SOURCE SYSTEMS AND IS THE PRIMARY MODE OF DELIVERY OF DATA INFORMATION CYBERWARFARE CAPABILITIES OF BOTH FORCES COULD INFLUENCE THE INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT NOLCOM CEIS CAPABILITY MAY NOT WORK WELL IN LACUHA ISLAND

  50. METOC ANALYSIS WEATHER / CLIMATE • Type III Climate – rainfall more or less evenly distributed through out the year/no clear boundary between dry and wet • Double during May – October (Monsoon Season) • Temperature bet 27°C to 32°C • Humidity av e= 78% year round • Ave rainfall 2,034.6 mm • Driest period: January – April • Annual precipitation: 910 mm (36in) • Coastal region: 101-381 mm • Higher ground: 508 mm

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