Kurdistan

1. Kurdistan Struggle for Autonomy Dr. Maggio GLS-220

2. Kurdish History • The Kurds are a distinct ethnic group descendant from mountain peoples – distinct from Arabs • Conquered by Arabs in 643ce and rebelled repeatedly having periods of self rule before being absorbed into the Ottoman Empire • Iraqi Kurds had an independent state from late 1918 to summer 1919, where then integrated into Iraq by the British • Rebelled against Saddam from 1960 to 1975 • Signed an autonomy agreement in 1970 that never came into affect • Rebellion crushed in 1975

3. Recent history • During the Iran-Iraq war Saddam waged the Anfal campaign against the Kurds, essentially genocide causing many to flee to Turkey and Iran • Saddam began an ‘Arabization’ campaign, especially for Kirkuk • Kurds rose up again in 1991 at American urging, were crushed when we did not support them • No fly zone instituted after Desert Storm, which covered northern half of Kurdistan allowed a degree of autonomy • Currently are the only stable portion of Iraq, with functioning government and relative economic prosperity

4. Major IssuesKirkuk & Oil • Historic capitol as well as cultural capital • One of Kurdistan’s largest cities • Multi-ethnic City -- Kurds make up at least 50% of the population, Arabs at least 30% and Turkmen less than 20% • Referendum scheduled for 2007 was delayed until 2008 in limbo until then • 50% unemployment, infrastructure is crumbling due to lack of governance in region • Kirkuk is a very Oil rich region • Division of Oil revenues is very divisive • Plays a large role in the issue of autonomy, federalism and independence

6. Scenarios • Autonomous region • Independence • Via Collapse of Iraq • Over problems with Turkey • Federalism • Unlikely for Kurds

7. Autonomy • Definitions: • A self-governing state within Iraq • In control of its own security, economy and public works • Rely on Iraqi parliament for foreign policy matters

8. Ruling as an autonomous region now Currently the most peaceful region in Iraq PUK and KDP are currently peacefully sharing government responsibilities since 2006 Autonomy does not upset neighbors (Turkey and Iran), independence does Sunni and Shi’as Iraqis accept the current situation Kurdistan Regional Government representatives are being recognized as ambassadors to foreign countries Tolerance, other ethnic and religious minorities in the region are allowed to participate in government Positives

9. Negatives • Problems over oil distribution • Kurdistan wants to peacefully retake Kirkuk • Internal divisions • Ethnically diverse region- Assyrians, Turkmen, Yazidis, and Chaldeans • Large number of minor political parties- Kurdistan Socialist Democratic Party, Kurdistan Toilers Party, Kurdistan Islamic Union, Kurdistan Communist Party, The Islamic Group, and the Turkmen Brotherhood Party

10. Major Political Parties • KDP (Kurdistan Democratic Party) led by Masoud Barzani • PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) led by Jalal Talabani • From 1994-1998 the KDP and the PUK fought a civil war for control of the autonomous region of Kurdistan • Until the Jan. 21 2006 unification agreement Kurdistan was governed as two separate regions • The PUK controlled the southern region from its capital at Suleimaniyeh • The KDP controlled the northern region from its capital at Erbil

12. Independent Kurdistan • Definition – An internationally recognized nation state with all the inherent rights entailed Reasons for Independence • Parts of Kurdistan has been functioning mostly autonomously since Desert Storm and historically have had periods of self rule • Is the only portion of Iraq that functions well • The Kurds have not had a good history with Iraq; long running rebellion, Anfal Campaign and Arabization • Kurds have a desire to be a nation-state which has become an internationally recognized right for many people

13. Paths to Independence • First Path: Collapse of Iraq • Collapse of Iraq government forces the KRG to begin handling their own foreign affairs • The Kurds already have their own ambassador with many thinking of Iraq as a separate country, smoothing the transition • Independence would be a far more viable option then attempting to rescue a failed state • Second Path: Growth of hostilities with Turkey and Iran • Kurds become fed up with the inability of the Iraqi government to end Turkish and Iranian military action in Kurdistan • Any civilian casualties would make this option extremely likely • Decide to solve issue themselves and declare independence and announce that any military excursion into Kurdistan will be met with force

14. Aftermath • A failed Iraqi state is not that bad for Kurds, de facto independence, eventual recognition by the UN as a stable and democratic country in the middle east, potentially a stabilizing influence • Could however lead to war with Iraq over oil • Growing hostilities with Turkey and/or Iran would be a disaster with war inevitable • Would curtail Kurdish economic development • Could leave Kurdistan devastated, loss of lives and infrastructure • International community unlikely to recognize Kurdistan in this case as it would only worsen conflict • Most likely result in destruction of everything Kurds want • Independence may lead to infighting with KDP and PUK

15. Federalism • Definition - Kurdistan as an integrated unit of Iraq. • The specifics of a clearly defined Iraqi Federalism would require taking consideration many details covered last week that are beyond the scope of this presentation. Reasons for Federalism in Iraq • This is the path that the United States is strongly pushing for. • This would allow Kurdistan to maintain some degree of sovereignty and govern their region as they feel is appropriate for their people and culture. • With a federal system the central government could control the oil resources – reducing the risks of a civil war.

16. Paths to Federalism • Path 1: Iraq stabilizes and all involved parties begin open negotiations for peace in the region. • Path 2: Foreign governments apply pressure through sanctions and/or the removal of international aid. • Path 3: The emergence of a strong Iraqi leader that has the capability to unify Iraq.

17. Aftermath • The regional fear of a federal Iraq being the first step to the break of Iraq may lead to pressure and tension from surrounding countries. • Iran, Turkey, Syria • Arab Sunnis • The attempt to nationalize oil could lead to a civil war for the control of contested areas such as Kurdistan and Basra. • Kurdistan is currently maintaining their own military and due to their distinct history within Iraq, may refuse to give up a standing army. This could lead to the failure of the federal system. • Salaries • Regional sovereignty

18. Autonomy – Best Option • It is the Status Quo option • Benefits all sides, everyone gets some of what they want • Kurdistan is currently functioning well as an autonomous unit within Iraq • Both Kurdish and Iraqi faction leaders have voiced their preference for an autonomous Kurdistan within a federal Iraq • Placates Turkey and Iran with their fear of a greater Kurdistan • Keeps a stable and functioning portion of Iraq within Iraq • One problem – requires Iraq to develop a functioning central government

19. Conclusion • Incredibly complicated issue that must balance internal factions and international factions • Kurds have destiny in their own hands to a point, also very dependent upon America’s actions • Situation can change at any moment, if Iraq’s government collapses or just continues to be paralyzed by indecision • Continuing hostilities involving Turkey, the PKK and Iran could drastically change the situation • Tensions between PKK and KRG could cause an insurgency • PUK and KDP may start fighting again