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Evaluating Business Scenario Conclusions: Plausibility Assessment

In this analysis, we present a business scenario with two contrasting conclusions regarding profit margin changes and sales force turnover rate. You will judge the plausibility of each conclusion based on provided data. For the profit margin, assess whether a decrease in percentage indicates a reduction in profit or an increase. For employee turnover, determine if improved rates suggest fewer salespeople left the firm. Your evaluation will help understand the implications of these results on overall business performance.

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Evaluating Business Scenario Conclusions: Plausibility Assessment

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  1. Plausible and Implausible Scenarios Fall 2012 Ted Mitchell

  2. You are about to read a business scenario. • The scenario has two different conclusions. • You are to judge how plausible or implausible each conclusion is for the scenario.

  3. To what degree do the conclusions to the following scenario sound plausible or unlikely? • Your profit margin decreased from last quarter to this quarter. Your firm had a profit margin of 20% last quarter and it decreased to 15% this quarter. Alternative Conclusions:A) The amount of profit you earned decreased.B) The amount of profit you earned increased. • a) Conclusion A sounds very plausible or likely and conclusion B sounds very implausible or unlikely • b) Conclusion B sounds very plausible or likely and conclusion A sounds very implausible or unlikely • c) Both Conclusions A and B sound very plausible or likely • d) Both Conclusions A and B sound very implausible or unlikely

  4. To what degree does the conclusion to the following scenario sound plausible or unlikely? • The turnover rate among your sales force has improved from last year to this year. Your turnover rate was 10% last year, and then it dropped to 8% this year. Alternative Conclusions: • A) Moresales people decided to leave your firm this year than last year.B) Fewer sales people decided to leave your firm this year than last year. • a) Conclusion A sounds very plausible or likely and conclusion B sounds very implausible or unlikely • b) Conclusion B sounds very plausible or likely and conclusion A sounds very implausible or unlikely • c) Both Conclusions A and B sound very plausible or likely • d) Both Conclusions A and B sound very implausible or unlikely

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