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Tenth Annual Leckey Forum

Tenth Annual Leckey Forum. Housing the Region’s Future Workforce. Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD George Mason University School of Public Policy Center for Regional Analysis November 9, 2012. Sources: ACS 2010 1-yr Estimate, HUD SOCDS, Census. . +74%.

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Tenth Annual Leckey Forum

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  1. Tenth Annual Leckey Forum Housing the Region’s Future Workforce Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD George Mason University School of Public Policy Center for Regional Analysis November 9, 2012

  2. Sources: ACS 2010 1-yr Estimate, HUD SOCDS, Census.

  3. +74% Source: HUD SOCDS, Census, Bureau of Labor & Statistics

  4. Housing Research Questions • How much housing will be required to house the region’s future workforce? • What types of housing, tenure patterns and price ranges will this future workforce demand? • How will these housing requirements vary by jurisdiction within the region?

  5. Net New Jobs by Sub-state Region 2010-2030 Source: IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  6. Job Growth by Selected Sector and Median WagesArlington County / City of Alexandria 2010-2030 Source: IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2010 – 2030 job losses: Government, Retail, Manufacturing, Transportation

  7. Housing Demand (Net New Units)by Sub-Region2010-2030 Note: Demand estimates assume all workers are housed in the jurisdiction in which they work.

  8. Building PermitsWashington Metro Area1992-2011 Metro 1992-2011 annual average = 28,650 2012-2030 needed = 37,700 Source: US Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  9. Building PermitsArlington and Alexandria1992-2011 Alexandria 1992-2011 annual average = 216 2002-2012 annual average = 77 2012-2030 needed each yr. = 1,700 Arlington 1992-2011 annual average = 965 2002-2012 annual average = 1,308 2012-2030 needed each yr. = 1,800 Source: US Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  10. Comparing Current and Forecasted UnitsSingle-Family vs. Multi-Family Units *Source: 2009 American Community Survey

  11. Comparing Prices of Current and Forecasted Units Owner-Occupied Units Washington Region Source: Jan-Aug 2011 Sales, MRIS Note: assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work

  12. Comparing Rents of Current and Forecasted Units Renter-Occupied Units Washington Region Source: 2009 ACS Note: assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work

  13. Housing Policy Issues • Local jurisdictions are planning for an insufficient amount of housing to accommodate future workers over the long-term. • More housing is needed closer to jobs, in existing and growing regional employment centers. • There is a need for more multi-family housing and smaller, more affordable owner and renter homes in the region. • A lack of a sufficient supply of housing contributes to worsening traffic and quality of life and threatens our region’s economic vitality.

  14. George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis cra.gmu.edu

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