The Pileus Project: Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change on Sour Cherry Production in the Great Lakes Re

1. The Pileus Project: Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change on Sour Cherry Production in the Great Lakes Region J.A. Andresen, C. Zavalloni, J.R. Black, J.A. Winkler, J.M. Bisanz, and J.A. Flore Depts. of Geography, Ag. Economics, and Horticulture Michigan State University East Lansing, MI

2. Components of the Pileus Project Weather/Climate (Downscaling) Dr. Julie Winkler, Galina Guentchev, Krerk Piromsopa Tourism Agriculture Sour cherry industry* Corn & wheat quality *Dr. Jeff Andresen, Dr. Roy Black,Tracy Beedy, Dr. Costanza Zavalloni

3. Objectives • Create and cultivate stakeholder-research partnerships; Stakeholders help establish assessment goals, identify specific information needs, provide expertise, data and information. • Develop quantitative, interactive models that effectively simulate relationships between climate variability and the tart cherry industry. • Integrate stakeholder input and model simulations to develop decision-support tools for effective risk management in the Great Lakes Region.

4. Why Study Climate Variability and Sour Cherries ? • Michigan is the primary producer of sour cherries in the U.S. and most parts of the value chain are in the state. • Sour cherries are extremely vulnerable to temperature extremes. • The impact of climate on the sour cherry industry is not well understood and has not been investigated in an industry-wide context. • Collectively, these factors allow a unique opportunity to link expertise in sour cherry production, economics, and climate science.

5. Approach/Methodology • Sequential approach used (linkage of multiple models) at 15 locations across the Great Lakes Region • Models of tart cherry phenology, yield, and economic value chain were developed • Two time frames considered: historical (1960-2003) and projected future (1990-2100) • Projected future time frame developed from 4 separate GCMs, at least 5 different downscaling methodologies, and 2 separate GHG emission scenarios for more than 60 scenarios per site • Based on stakeholder input, research results used to develop www-based tools for industry • Approach designed to be exportable to other systems

6. Socioeconomic Scenarios Value Chain Economic Model(s) Climate Observations or Scenarios Sour Cherry Simulation Model Risk Management Decision Making Tools, Policy Framework Land use change scenarios

7. Hart

8. Sour Cherry Simulation Model Development • The project requires development of a simple, physically-based simulation of the major horticultural processes. • Major components include: • - phenology • - cold Injury (Dennis and Howell, 1974) • - leaf area development • - water balance and use • - disease risk • - yield • Potential weather/climate impacts were identified by the literature and by the industry, especially growers. • The strategy is to hold all aspects of the system constant except weather/climate to investigate potential impacts in past and projected future time frames.

11. Phenology Simulation Development Detailed observations of reproductive flower bud stages were colleted twice a week on shoots and spurs in 2 years (1994 and 1995) and three location: -Eau Claire (SW) -Clarksville (WC) -Traverse City (NW) Phenological stages were determined empirically as a function of temperature, using ΣGDD4(Eisensmith et al., 1980 and 1982).

12. Reproductive Bud Development Prediction Equation Stage 3-9 Stage = 9.7329/(1+((9.7329-2)/2)exp-0.0236*SGDD ) R2=0.99

13. Simulated vs. Observed Reproductive Phenology

15. Significant Weather-Related Factors Associated with Yield • Freeze/cold injury to flower buds (-) • Number of wet days (-) and length of bloom (pollination) (+) • Total precipitation during latter stages of previous growing season (+) • Leaf spot disease pressure previous growing season (-)

17. Historical Climate Trends in the Great Lakes Region • Mean air temperatures have increased during the last 25 years, but still remain within observed historical ranges of the past century • Climate has become wetter and cloudier, especially during the last 50 years • The amount of ice on the Great Lakes during the winter has decreased and the seasonal onset of spring warmth has come earlier in recent decades. However, the frequency and magnitude of spring freeze events has no changed.

18. Grand Traverse Bay – No. Years Ice Cover per Decade(1851-2000)

22. Projected Climate of the Great Lakes Region • Mean air temperatures are projected to increase approximately 1-4C by the end of this century. • Projected trends in precipitation are unclear, with some climate simulations suggesting a wetter climate and others a drier climate. • Future changes in the frequency and magnitude of weather extremes, a key factor for cherry production, remain unknown.

23. 15 locations • 3 climate parameters • Tmax • Tmin • precipitation • 4 GCMs • CCC CGCM2 • HadCM3 • MPI ECHAM4 • NCAR CSM1.2 • 2 emission scenarios • A2, B2 • 8 Downscaling methodologies NCAR ECHAM 64 scenarios for each climate variable per location Canadian Hadley A2, B2 multipledownscaling methodologies

25. Projected Change in Median Day of the Year of ‘Side green’ Mid-century (2040-2059) vs. late century (2080-2099)Maple City, MI

26. Projected Change in Average Percent of Viable Flower Buds Mid-century (2040-2059) vs. late century (2080-2099)Maple City, MI

27. Projected Average Annual Returns per AcreSouthwest Lower MI (2020-2050) per Acre

28. Projected Change in Average Percent of Viable Flower Buds Maple City * Control period: 1990-2009

29. Current and Future Work • Further refinement of the yield function • Address the impact of microclimate on regional production (e.g. orchard site selection) • Evaluate the future projected scenarios, including precipitation • Investigate the impact of a changing climate on the risk and management of cherry leaf spot. • Include potential impact of CO2 enrichment

31. Simulated Pest Management Parameters, Apple Codling MothEast Jordan, MI 6 6 3 3 1663 1477 1201 2 4

32. Questions?