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General Aviation Forecast Overview 2008-2025

A comprehensive overview of the forecasted trends and growth in general aviation, including fleet size, flight hours, operations, and airport activity. This forecast provides valuable insights for facility planning, regulatory analysis, and investment analysis.

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General Aviation Forecast Overview 2008-2025

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  1. General Aviation Forecast Overview2008-2025

  2. Agenda • Background • Historic National Trends • Forecast Overview • DC Area Trends and Forecast

  3. Background • What do we forecast? • Airline traffic and capacity • General Aviation activity • Aircraft operations • Done at both national and individual airport level • What are the forecasts used for? • Facility Planning • ATC Staffing • Regulatory analysis • FAA Budgets • Investment Analysis • Baseline Comparisons for Airport Master Plans

  4. General Aviation Trends 2000-07 • Modest growth in fleet and hours • Total fleet growth of 6.4% (13,500 A/C) • Turbo Jet A/C up 41% to 11,000; Piston A/C flat • Hours up 3.1% • Turbo Jets 66% higher; Pistons (including rotorcraft) down 13.3% • Activity down • Ops at FAA and Contract Towers down 16.9% • Instrument Ops down 19.5% • En Route A/C Handled down 5.1% • Sales and Deliveries growing since 2003 • Jet sales up 83%; piston sales up 62% • Jet deliveries up 112%; piston deliveries up 37%

  5. GA Forecast Overview 2008-25 • Growth in high end of market • Total fleet is 27% higher by 2025 (61,000 increase) • Piston A/C (including rotorcraft) up 15,000 (0.5% per year) • Turbo Jet A/C up 18,500 (5.6% per year) • Biz Jets increase by 10,500 (3.8% per year) • VLJs total 8,145 by 2025 • Hours are 70% higher in 2025 (3% per year) • Turbo Jets grow 7.6% per year • Pistons (including rotorcraft) grow 1.1% per year • Operations growth reflects hours growth • Tower operations increase 26% by 2025 (1.3% per year) • En Route aircraft handled up 68% (3% per year)

  6. General Aviation Fleet Actual Forecast 2007-25 Avg. Annual Growth Piston: 0.5% Turbine: 3.7% Exp, LSA, Oth: 3.0%

  7. General Aviation Flight Hours Actual Forecast 2007-25 Avg. Annual Growth Piston: 1.1% Exp, LSA, Oth: 4.1% Non VLJ Turbine: 2.8% VLJs: 28.4%

  8. Tower Operations Actual Forecast 2008-25 Avg. Annual Growth Commercial: 2.7% Gen Aviation: 1.3% Military: 0.0%

  9. DC Area Trends

  10. DC General Aviation Trends 2000-07 • Activity down overall • GA operations down 12.2%; slightly more than total ops • Largest declines at DCA, HEF, and MTN • Itinerant down 30% while local up 7.7% • Biz Jet Activity up 7.5%; peaked in 2005 • IAD up 112%; DCA down 95% • Share of GA activity increased from 8.6% to 10.5% • DCA had most activity in 2000 (40% of total); IAD in 2007 (65.8% of total)

  11. DC Area Tower Operations

  12. DC Area General Aviation Operations

  13. General Aviation Biz Jet Operations

  14. DC Area Tower Forecast 2008-25 • Activity up 42% by 2025 (2% annual growth) • Slightly higher than national growth • Commercial growth 2.4% per year • GA growth of 1.5% per year • Exceed 2000 peak in 2014

  15. DC Area Tower Operations Actual Forecast 2008-25 Avg. Annual Growth Commercial: 2.4% General Aviation: 1.5% Military: 0.0%

  16. Things to look for • Congestion – will it be as bad as in 2007? • Environmental concerns will continue to be in the forefront of aviation debates. • Strength of demand given high oil prices and a slowing economy. • Success of on-demand air taxi operators and use of VLJs.

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