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San Francisco Bay Area Activity-Based Models Specification & Training Study

San Francisco Bay Area Activity-Based Models Specification & Training Study. Chuck Purvis Metropolitan Transportation Commission Oakland, California Workshop Presentation at the 86 th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board Sunday, January 21, 2007. Presentation Overview.

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San Francisco Bay Area Activity-Based Models Specification & Training Study

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  1. San Francisco Bay Area Activity-Based Models Specification & Training Study Chuck Purvis Metropolitan Transportation Commission Oakland, California Workshop Presentation at the 86th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board Sunday, January 21, 2007

  2. Presentation Overview • The Six Stages of Model System Development • MTC and Travel Modeling: A Brief History • MTC Approach to Model Development • Chronology of Events • Travel Model Specification Plan • Travel Model Estimation Training • Current & Future Work

  3. Six Stages of Model System Development(Trip-Based or Activity-Based) • Model Specification • Disaggregate Estimation • Disaggregate Validation • Market Segmentation • Software Preparation • Aggregate Validation

  4. A Brief History • 1960s – Diversion Curves & Aggregate Models • 1970s – Disaggregate Choice Models, Logsums • See Ruiter & Ben-Akiva, Shunk & Kollo TRR #673 (1978) • 1980s-1990s – In-House Redevelopment of Trip-Based Model Systems • See Kollo & Purvis, TRR #1220 (1989) • 2000s – Collaborative Development of Next Generation (Activity-Based) Demand Models

  5. MTC Approach to Model Development • In-House Estimation, Validation, Software Development • MTC Staff Strengths: Data Analysis, GIS, Documenting • MTC Staff Weaknesses: Programming, Ongoing Model Estimation Experience • Collaborative Approach with Consultants needed due to retirement of MTC programming staff; Complexity of Activity-Based Models • Numerous Consultant Roles: Educating, Tutoring, Training, Mentoring, Computer Programming, Second-Guessing, Collaborating, Problem-Solving, Debugging, Reasonableness Checking, Hand-Holding, Commiserating, etc.

  6. Chronology • December 2004: TMIP-sponsored Peer Review Panel for MTC • April 2005: MTC Request for Proposal for “Travel Model Specification & Training Study” • June/July 2005: Consultant Selection/Contracting • September 2005: Policy Needs Workshops • January 2006: Introduction to Estimation Software • February/March 2006: MTC Staff Training • December 2006: Completion of Specification Plan • 2007-2009: Complete the Work

  7. Components ofMTC Travel Model Specification & Training Study • Develop a Travel Model Specification Plan • Provide Travel Model Estimation Training • Provide Data Processing Support for Models (e.g., apply trip chaining procedures) • Provide “On-Call” Model Estimation Oversight

  8. Travel Model Specification Plan (I) • Networks, Data, Hardware, Software, Models • @75 model components (discrete choice) • Tour-Based, with 7-8 tour purposes • Synthetic Population, based on ARC work • Inter-Household Interactions (IHI) • Coordinated Daily Activity Pattern (CDAP) Model • Tour Coordination Models • Logsum linkages throughout • Need to Estimate Models from the “Bottom Up”

  9. Travel Model Specification Plan (II) • Long-Term Decisions / Population Synthesis • Household Accessibility to Transit Model • Work-at-Home Choice Model • Work Location Choice Model • School Location Choice Models • Auto Ownership Model • Parking Cost Model • Travel Demand Models • Coordinated Daily Activity Pattern (CDAP) Model • Tour Generation Models • Work-Based Sub-Tour Generation & Destination Choice Models • Mandatory & Non-Mandatory Tour Coordination Models • Tour Destination Choice Models • Intermediate Stop purpose and Destination Choice Models • Tour, and Trip Mode Choice Models

  10. GIS & Data • Bay Area Travel Survey 2000 (BATS2000) • 15,000+ Households • Comprehensive Analysis of Linked Trips • New Database of Tours, Chained Trips, Stops • GIS: ESRI’s Network Analyst Software • Emphasis on Point-to-Point Network LOS • Detailed Proximity to Transit Stops: www.511.org • MTC TOD Research with BATS2000/GIS: • Characteristics of Rail & Ferry Station Area Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area: Evidence from the 2000 Bay Area Travel Survey” (MTC StARS – 9/2006)

  11. Travel Model Estimation Training • 9.5 full days of Classroom Lectures/Labs • Comprehensive Reading List • Team teaching (Koppelman, Garrow, Vovsha, Freedman, Train) • Students = MTC Staff (5) • Estimation using ELM software • Advanced Seminar: Mixed Logit

  12. Training Laboratories • Multinomial Logit (Auto Ownership) • Multinomial Logit (Trip Mode Choice) • Nested Logit (Trip Mode Choice) • Destination Choice • Tour Mode Choice • Daily Activity Pattern for Workers • Coordinated Daily Activity Pattern • Work Tour Time-of-Day Choice

  13. Current & Future Work • Complete Synthetic Population Analysis • Validation Year = 2000 • Forecast / Backcast Years = 1990, 2005, 2030, 2050 • Continue Model Estimation work in 2007 • 2008 Hiatus (Production Work on Regional Transportation Plan); Other Production Work • Complete Model Estimation, Software Development, Validation in 2009

  14. Recommendations? • Starting with a Comprehensive, Recent Household Travel Survey is Fundamental • Importance of Complementary Databases • Networks, Transit Stops, Detailed Land Use • Staff Education & Training • Making the Inexplicable, Explainable • Collaborative Efforts with Academia & Consultants are Essential • It Takes Time to Do It Right! • Have the standby trip-based models until….

  15. References • Chuck Purvis, MTC, cpurvis@mtc.ca.gov • 510-817-5755 • MTC Web Site - - “DataMart” • http://www.mtc.ca.gov/maps_and_data/datamart/historic/ • http://www.mtc.ca.gov/maps_and_data/datamart/abm/ • MTC Travel Model Specification Plan • MTC Travel Model Estimation Training Summary

  16. References • Chuck Purvis, MTC, cpurvis@mtc.ca.gov • 510-817-5755 • MTC Web Site - - “DataMart” • http://www.mtc.ca.gov/maps_and_data/datamart/historic/ • http://www.mtc.ca.gov/maps_and_data/datamart/abm/ • MTC Travel Model Specification Plan • MTC Travel Model Estimation Training Summary

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