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Brilliant

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Brilliant

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  1. Brilliant • Congratulations to ELSA’s Team • Think of NIA when it comes to funding analyses of ELSA or ELSA in conjunction with HRS, SHARE, SAGE, etc.

  2. ELSA Wave 2 Richard Suzman ELSA London 2006 Behavioral and Social Research Program, NIA, NIH

  3. Aging is Global and changing the world as we know it • Expectations of life expectancy might be too low and Longer life expectancy needs to be paid for, in part by working longer • Realization of the macroeconomic effects of global aging is attracting attention. How will China's aging impact the USA and UK? • Contrary to expectations disability has declined in he USA, so aging is plastic • Reducing age-related disability should become a global priorities • Research (biomedical, social and behavioral) is essential for reducing disability faster

  4. Origins of ELSA • HRS • Disability Decline –trends in OECD countries • Gruber Wise project on public pensions and labor force participation • Denver Summit Meeting of the G-7/8 • Chance meeting -1997 • Denver Communiqué and NIA’s funding of an NAS panel • NIA and NIH attitudes toward funding research outside the USA

  5. Number of Chronically Disabled Americans Age 65 and Over (In Millions) 10 9.2 If disability rate did not change since 1982 9.9 8.3 8 7.5 7.3 6.4 7.0 7.1 7.0 6 Based on declining disability rate since 1982 4 Projected 2004 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Total Population Age 65+ 26.9 Million Total Population Age 65+ 30.8 Million Total Population Age 65+ 33.1 Million Total Population Age 65+ 36.4 Million March 2004 Source: National Long Term Care Survey 1982-1999 (Kenneth Manton, Ph.D.)

  6. 24.0 22.0 20.2 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 10.4 12.0 10.0 8.6 7.3 8.0 6.0 7.0 1.5% decline per annum 4.0 (1989-1994) 2.0 0.0 1996 2004 2012 2020 2028 2036 2044 2052 Projections of Number of Disabled Americans Age 65 & Over (in millions) Source: National Long Term Care Survey 1982-1994 (Kenneth Manton, Ph.D.) Revised November 1999 22

  7. Retirement Policy Shapes Retirement Behavior Belgium 60 France Italy Holland UK 50 Germany Spain Percent Early Retirement Canada 40 US Sweden 30 20 40 60 80 100 Public Pension Percent Penalty for Continued Work Gruber and Wise (2000), “Social Security and Retirement Around the World.”

  8. NIA Sponsored NRC Report: Preparing for an Aging World Expert recommendations for: • International research agenda • Comparable Data needed to implement that agenda National Research Council (2001), “Preparing for an Aging World: the Case for Cross-National Research.”

  9. Value of an International Research Agenda • Differences in age structure across countries • Countries are adapting with policy changes • Provides natural experiments to analyze some NIA/BSR Areas of Emphasis • Increasing Health Expectancy • Health, Work, and Retirement • Interventions and Behavior Change • Genetics, Behavior, and the Social Environment • The Burden of Illness and the Efficiency of Health Systems.

  10. Why Cross-national Research? • Macroeconomic challenges require microeconomic responses • Demographic and institutional variation make detection of causality easier • Need cross-nationally comparable data • SHARE: Ex ante harmonization… • …within Europe and with HRS • Balancing comparability and experimentation/individuality – NIA funding a network meeting to enhance coordination

  11. NRC Panel Recommendations The NRC Panel Recommendations include: • Creation of measures that are conceptually comparable across societies (harmonization) • Database development that can support critical multidisciplinary research National Research Council (2001), “Preparing for an Aging World: the Case for Cross-National Research.”

  12. BSR Data Development • The Health and Retirement Study served as a template for similar studies in other countries. • English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) • Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) • Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) • In the works: Israel, Ireland, the Czech Republic, Poland, Korea (KLOSA), China, and Japan. • SAGE and INDEPTH

  13. Cross National Studies of Retirement and Health BSR supports several studies that examine work and retirement in a cross-national context: • Wise P01 • Kapteyn P01 • Murray P01

  14. * Korea Japan * * SV Israel SE UK DK IE NL PL DE USA BE CZ FR CH AT IT SP GR A laboratory for cross-national social science & policy analysis

  15. Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) • Six countries from WHS (China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russian Federation & South Africa) • Ten INDEPTH sites (6 with NIA funds, 4 with own funding) • Links to SHARE • Comparisons to data from MHAS, SABE, ELSA, HRS, other

  16. SAGE and INDEPTH • China • India • Russia • Mexico • South Africa • Ghana • Kenya • Tanzania • Bangladesh • Viet Nam • Indonesia

  17. Observations on ELSA-2 • NIA welcomes secondary data analytic grant proposals • Chronic conditions limiting ability to work –potential interventions to permit older workers to stay on the job longer • Ending of compulsory retirement ages • Perceptions of ageing – epiphenomenon or causal -is there more than meets the eye? • Disability trends • Genetics • Concerns re refusal rate • Not only a database, but growing scientific community