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Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific No

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest . Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering for Climate and Water Resource Forecasts for the 2007 Water Year

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Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific No

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  1. Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering for Climate and Water Resource Forecasts for the 2007 Water Year UW Climate Impacts Group October 3, 2006, Kelso, WA

  2. Presentation Outline 1. Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2007 Outlook 3. Water Year 2006 Assessment

  3. IntroductionUW Forecast System Developing “focus regions” -- Klamath R. basin -- Yakima R. basin -- Feather R. basin -- WA State 1/16 www.hydro.washington.edu/ forecast/westwide/

  4. Experimental W. US Hydrologic Forecast System Snowpack Initial Condition Soil Moisture Initial Condition

  5. Experimental Western US Hydrologic Forecast System Multiple Seasonal Climate Forecast Data Sources CCA NOAA CAS OCN CPC Official Outlooks SMLR CA NCEP CFS VIC Hydrology Model NASA NSIPP/GMAO dynamical model ESP ENSO UW ENSO/PDO

  6. recently observed meteorological data ensemble of met. data to generate forecast Spin-up ICs Forecast obs hydrologic state Hydrologic Model-based Forecasting

  7. monthly hydrographs targeted statistics e.g., runoff volumes spatial forecast maps

  8. Clicking the stream flow forecast map also accesses current basin-averaged conditions Applications: streamflow Introduction Flow location maps give access to monthly hydrograph plots, and also to raw forecast data.

  9. Presentation Outline 1. Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2007 Outlook 3. Water Year 2006 Assessment

  10. The PNW hydrologic cycle Average annual water cycle • soil moisture near annual low • runoff near low • nearly all water year precipitation yet to come • snow season not really underway • evaporation not a factor PNW Where we are now on average

  11. The PNW hydrologic cycle Note that there is variability in soil moisture now… • water balance current

  12. Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow ESP ESP - El Nino Dalles: 100 / 88

  13. Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow ESP ESP - El Nino Priest Rapids: 101 / 89

  14. Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow ESP ESP - El Nino Snake: 96 / 83

  15. Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Snake: 96 / 83 El Nino flow deficits come in April through July

  16. Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow ESP ESP - El Nino Upper Snake: 95 / 83

  17. Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow ESP ESP - El Nino Waneta: 99 / 84

  18. Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow ESP ESP - El Nino Arrow: 101 / 92

  19. Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow ESP ESP - El Nino Mica Dam: 101 / 93

  20. Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Arrow: 101 / 92 El Nino flow deficits come in June and July

  21. Presentation Outline 1. Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2007 Outlook 3. Water Year 2006 Assessment

  22. Recap WY2006, Dec. 1 hydrologic conditions Soil Moisture SWE

  23. Recap WY2006, Jan. 1 hydrologic conditions

  24. Recap WY2006, Feb. 1 hydrologic conditions

  25. Recap WY2006, Mar. 1 hydrologic conditions

  26. Recap WY2006, Apr. 1 hydrologic conditions

  27. Recap WY2006, May. 1 hydrologic conditions

  28. Recap WY2006, Jul. 1 hydrologic conditions

  29. Oct. 1 Soil Moisture Comparison THIS YEAR LAST YEAR THIS YEAR

  30. Soil moisture change in last month Other views of changing hydrologic conditions www.hydro.washington.edu/ forecast/monitor/

  31. Soil Moisture for last 2 weeks The daily update of surface conditions enables animationed views of recent changes

  32. Recap WY2006, Related Snow Plots Observed SWE Change in last month

  33. Winter 2005-06:seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow OBS Forecasts made on 1st of Month

  34. Winter 2005-06:seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow OBS Forecasts made on 1st of Month

  35. Winter 2005-06:seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow OBS Forecasts made on 1st of Month

  36. Understanding Uncertainty All those whose duty it is to issue regular daily forecasts know that there are times when they feel very confident and other times when they are doubtful as to the coming weather. It seems to me that the condition of confidence or otherwise forms a very important part of the prediction, and ought to find expression. -W.E. Cooke (1906)

  37. Calibrating Model Forecast Uncertainty Models are overconfident Statistical calibration of outputs can add needed uncertainty to forecasts J F M A M J F M A M

  38. Understanding Uncertainty

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