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Demographic Shifts and Their Impact on Secondary and Grammar Schools by 2020

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This content explores the projected demographic trends affecting secondary and grammar schools through 2020. It highlights a projected decline in the post-primary age population by a fifth and a shift in the ratio of grammar to secondary school admissions. The implications for school viability, such as potential closures and the ability mixes within schools, are examined. Additionally, it discusses the significant differences in admissions and academic performance among students, touching on the impacts of Free School Meals eligibility on GCSE outcomes.

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Demographic Shifts and Their Impact on Secondary and Grammar Schools by 2020

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Wider ContextSome Key Issues • Demography • Differential Performance • ‘The Gap’

  2. Demography – projected trends • Post-Primary Age Population to decline by a fifth by 2020

  3. Secondary:Grammar Ratios • By 2020 grammar and secondary ratio will be 50:50

  4. Impact on Secondary Schools • Viability of some schools – closures, amalgamations, rationalisation • Ability mix within schools • Impact will be greater in particular areas

  5. Impact on Grammar Schools • Ability mix within schools • In 16 Grammar Schools, 95% or more of admissions were As or B1s in September 2002 • 8% of admissions to grammar schools are Cs or Ds at present • 21 grammar schools with 10% admissions with Cs and Ds in Transfer Test • 10 schools with 20% or more Cs and Ds admitted

  6. GCSE Point Scores for All Pupils

  7. GCSE Point Scores for Secondary and Grammar Pupils

  8. Average GCSE Point Scores

  9. % of Pupils entitled to Free School Meals

  10. 5+ GCSEs A*-C for FSM and Non-FSM School Leavers

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