Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

1. Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 13 September 2010 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline • Highlights • ENSO Current Status • MJO Current Status • Monsoons Current Status • Southern Hemisphere Circulation • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast • Forecast Verification

3. Highlights Australia: Widespread light to locally moderate rainfall continued across eastern Australia. The GFS forecasts a general drying trend, but locally heavy rainfall is possible across the northern extent of the wheat belt in Queensland. Southern Africa:Dry, warm weather continued across most of southern Africa for another week. The GFS forecasts light to moderate rainfall developing in South Africa’s Cape provinces. South America: Light showers continued across much of eastern and central Argentina through southern Rio Grande do Sul. Below-average rainfall persisted in the remainder of southeastern Brazil. The GFS forecasts drier weather across Argentina, with rainfall limited to southern Rio Grande do Sul.

4. ENSO Current Status • General Summary: • La Niña conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific. • Negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the Pacific Ocean. • La Niña conditions are likely to continue through early 2011. During the last 4-weeks (15 Aug – 11 Sep 2010), SSTs were at least 1.0°C below-average between 165°E and the South American coast and more than 2.0°C below-average across small regions east of the International Date Line. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

5. MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation. • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength • Line colors distinguish different months RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean MJO Current Status Despite some eastward propagation during the previous week, the MJO signal remains weak. The GEFS forecast indicates no coherent MJO signal during the upcoming two weeks. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

6. Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status South America Southern Africa Australia Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR The dry season continued across southern Africa during the previous 90 days. Rainfall deficits greater than 30mm were observed across portions of South Africa and southern Mozambique, including Western Cape province. Below-average precipitation was observed across most ofSouth America during the previous 90 days, particularly across portions of southern Brazil, including Parana. In contrast, above-average rainfall was observed from Buenos Aires, Argentina, through far southern Brazil, and along Brazil’s northeastern tip. Near- to above-average rainfall was observed across much of Australia during the previous 90 days. A small area of below-average rainfall was observed in Western Australia’s primary wheat growing region. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/

7. 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation C C C A A C Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. • During 4 – 10 Sep 2010, a weak upper level cyclonic circulation anomaly was observed near Western Australia. At the lower levels of the atmosphere, above-average temperatures were observed in eastern Argentina.

8. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations. • During 4 – 10 Sep 2010, significant anomalous rising motion (negative omega, red shading) continued in central and northern Australia and was associated with continued rainfall. Another area of anomalous negative omega promoted increased rainfall across east portions of Argentina, but sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading) across southern Brazil promoted continued dryness in Parana.

9. Australia • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, light to moderate rainfall continued across eastern Australia’s wheat belt region.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the previous 15 days, widespread rainfall fell across all of the Australian wheat belt, increasing moisture levels ahead of critical crop development stages that typically occur in September.

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the previous 30 days, generally above-average rainfall was observed across southern and eastern Australia’s croplands, while a pocket of below-average rainfall was observed in far southwestern Australia.

13. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • 30-day rainfall time series across the Australian wheat belt depict the plentiful rainfall observed across most wheat belt locations. A 30 day deficit was observed in portions of Western Australia’s wheat belt (top left panel), but a significant rainfall boost occurred at the end of August.

14. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly • Near-average temperatures were observed across much of Australia during the previous week.

15. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 13 Sep 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 (13 – 19 Sep 2010), the GFS forecasts additional rainfall, possibly heavy locally, for the northern portions of the wheat belt in Queensland. Drier weather is expected elsewhere across Australia’s croplands.

16. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 13 Sep 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 (20 – 26 Sep 2010), widely spread showers are expected across much of eastern Australia’s wheat belt, with heavier rain possibly lingering in Queensland.

17. Southern Africa • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

18. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • During the last 7 days, mostly dry weather continued across southern Africa.

19. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the last 15 days, seasonable dryness prevailed across southern Africa. Below-average rainfall was observed along the South African shoreline.

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average rainfall was observed across eastern South Africa and southern Mozambique.

21. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • 30-day rainfall time series depict the seasonably dry weather across most of southern Africa, though deficits continue to grow across eastern locations.

22. Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Above-average temperatures were observed across most of southern Africa.

23. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 13 Sep 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 (13 – 19 Sep 2010), light to moderate rainfall is forecast for South Africa’s Cape provinces.

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 13 Sep 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 (20 – 26 Sep 2010), light showers are possible across southeastern South Africa.

25. Brazil & Argentina • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • First Freeze in southern Argentina • GFS Forecast

26. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • Near average rainfall continued in far southern Brazil (southern Rio Grande do Sul), while the remainder of southern Brazil received below-average rainfall for another week. • Showery weather continued across eastern Argentina, including much of Buenos Aires. Brazil Argentina

27. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days Total Anomaly • Rainy weather in southeastern Brazil was limited to the southern two thirds of Rio Grande do Sul. Precipitation deficits greater than 30mm were observed in portions of Parana. • In Argentina, wet weather was observed across eastern farmlands, including central Buenos Aires and northeastern La Pampa. Brazil Argentina

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly • Below-average rainfall was observed across central and southern Brazil during the previous 30 days, with the exception of central and southern Rio Grande do Sul. • Above-average rainfall was observed across eastern Argentina, including northeastern La Pampa. Brazil Argentina

29. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • Time series across central and eastern South America depict the increasing rainfall deficits across much of southeastern and southern Brazil, while northern Argentina received a rainfall boost at the end of August.

30. Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Near- to above-average temperatures were observed across Brazil during the previous week.

31. Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Much warmer weather overspread Argentina during the previous week, with maximum temperatures topping 30°C as far south as Cordoba.

32. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 13 Sep 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly • For Days 1-7 (13 – 19 Sep 2010), limited rainfall is forecast to continue across most of central and southern Brazil during the upcoming week, with showers continuing across southern Rio Grande do Sul. Drier weather is forecast to return to eastern Argentina following periods of rainfall.

33. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 13 Sep 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly • For Days 8-14 (20 – 26 Sep 2010), rainy weather is forecast to increase across southern Brazil, with light showers possible across central and northeastern Argentina.

34. Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars USDA Crop Information