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CREDEM & ABN AMRO Winning Together. Presentation to ABN Amro Board of Directors Amsterdam, August 3 rd 2005. Agenda. Cross Border M&A Deals in Europe Regulatory and legal issues Credem – Top Mid-Size Italian Bank Credem Valuation Strategical Fit & Synergies Transaction Structure
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CREDEM & ABN AMROWinning Together Presentation to ABN Amro Board of Directors Amsterdam, August 3rd 2005
Agenda • Cross Border M&A Deals in Europe • Regulatory and legal issues • Credem – Top Mid-Size Italian Bank • Credem Valuation • Strategical Fit & Synergies • Transaction Structure • Final Remarks
Cross Broader Deals • 9.65bn Euro takeover of Abbey by Spain's BSCH • UniCredito, Italy's largest bank, acquired HVB, 16bn Euro. • We have yet to see comparable transactions that involve Italian banks. • Spanish bank Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) recently failed attempt to acquire Italian bank BNL. • Antonio Fazio, Bank of Italy governor, is being threatened with legal action by the EU because of his alleged role in blocking the two foreign approaches.
Agenda • Cross Border M&A Deals in Europe • Regulatory and legal issues • Credem – Top Mid-Size Italian Bank • Credem Valuation • Strategical Fit & Synergies • Transaction Structure • Final Remarks
Legal and Regulatory EnvironmentLisbon Agenda • Lisbon Agenda- Financial Services Action Plan launched by European Commission aims at a single market for financial services • Lisbon Agenda is the driver of all regulatory actions • Regulators can impede a cross border acquisition of an Italian bank by an EU bank only on the basis of: • Competition Law Concerns • Banking Stability Concerns
Legal and Regulatory EnvironmentConsolidated Banking Directive • EU Directive 2000/12/EC • Article 16, Paragraph 1 • Prior notification of the size of intended holding (exceeding 5%) • Prior notification of intended acquisition of voting rights (20%, 33%, 50%) • Regulators may oppose within 3 months on the basis of suitability of the “person” (acquirer) • Refusal of authorization (Article 7, paragraph 2)
Legal and Regulatory EnvironmentLeading EU Cases • Banco Santander/Abbey National (2004) • The Commission held that the retail activities of the two concentrating banks did not overlap. Abbey National is present in the UK and to a limited extent in France and Banco Santander only in Spain. Corporate banking activities are very small in both cases • Merita/Nordbanken (1997) • The two merging entities were solely active in their domestic markets. The merger was allowed as it was held that it does not create a competition impeding effect • Effect: Government authorizations in cross border banking M&A within EU have become weaker
Legal and Regulatory EnvironmentNational Law-Italy • Civil Code: governs mergers, share deals, and asset deals in the form of going concern transfers • Legislative Decree 58 of February 24 1998 (the Consolidated Law on Financial Intermediation: Where a listed company is involved • Tax issues covered by Presidential Decree 917 of December 22 1986 (the Consolidated Law on Revenue Taxes) • Antitrust Law (Law 287 of October 10 1990) • Transactions in regulated sectors - such as telecommunications, media, gas and energy, banking, insurance and financial services - are subject to industry-specific rules and to the control of public supervision authorities
Legal and Regulatory EnvironmentThe 1993 Banking Law • Article 57: 1. The Bank of Italy shall authorize mergers and divisions involving banks where they are not in conflict with the principle of sound and prudent management • Procedures for the entry of a planned merger can not be initiated without prior authorization • Article 19: 1. Prior authorization by the Bank of Italy is required where the acquisition exceeds 5% of the voting capital
Legal and Regulatory EnvironmentBank of Italy-Anti Trust Role • Competition Authority (Law 287/1990) makes the Bank of Italy responsible for the antitrust function in the banking sector • Product market definition: • The Bank of Italy defines as relevant products the markets for funds (sight and time deposits) and for credit (both short and long-term) • Other relevant markets concern traditional lending and deposit taking products e.g. leasing, factoring, asset management
Legal and Regulatory EnvironmentBank of Italy-Anti Trust Role • Geographic market definition: • Provinces are the basic geographic units for fund-raising markets and “Regions” for loan markets • For the other financial product markets geographic dimension is “national” • In-depth investigations are unlikely to be opened for operations involving firms with an aggregate share of less than 25 per cent of the relevant market
Legal and Regulatory EnvironmentDisclosures, Reps & Warranties • The Consolidated Law on Financial Intermediation requires a prospectus to be prepared and made public in respect of IPOs, public takeovers and any other price sensitive or extraordinary corporate transactions affecting listed companies • The Civil Code lays down that a party may be liable for damages by way of pre-contractual liability in case of unjustified withdrawal • A party who knows of, or should by using reasonable diligence know of, any reason for invalidating a proposed agreement and does not disclose is liable for the damages • Courts have interpreted more narrowly. In the absence of an extensive pre-acquisition due diligence and an comprehensive contractual representations and warranties buyer can remain unprotected against seller's lack of transparency
Agenda • Cross Border M&A Deals in Europe • Regulatory and legal issues • Credem – Top Mid-Size Italian Bank • Credem Valuation • Strategical Fit & Synergies • Transaction Structure • Final Remarks
Target Engaged: Credito Emiliano • Medium sized Italian bank • 14th banking group as market cap • 12th bank as asset under management ($40 bln) • 453 branches throughout Italy • $ 2.5 bln market cap
Agenda • Cross Border M&A Deals in Europe • Regulatory and legal issues • Credem – Top Mid-Size Italian Bank • Credem Valuation • Strategical Fit & Synergies • Transaction Structure • Final Remarks
Credem ValuationComparison with American and Italian Banks 8.81
Credem ValuationShortfalls of Multiples Valuation • Multiples Valuation is a comparison to other pure play banks • Credem is a combination of traditional commercial banking, Asset Management, and Investment Banking
Credem ValuationShortfalls of Multiples Valuation (con’t) • Credem’s revenue outlook is more attractive vs. Italian banking sector average • Net interest income should grow due to superior lending growth and resilient spreads • Non-interest income should be driven by AM (volumes and margins) and rapid growth of Investment Banking Division as well as higher traditional banking fees which are due to be raised Source: Cheuvreux
Credem ValuationSum of Parts Source: Divisional weights, P/E estimates from Cheuvreux analysts Current Share Price Sum of Parts Share Price
Agenda • Cross Border M&A Deals in Europe • Regulatory and legal issues • Credem – Top Mid-Size Italian Bank • Credem Valuation – Why Credem • Strategical Fit & Synergies • Transaction Structure • Final Remarks
A Perfect Deal at the Right Time • European banking industry is HOT although Italian economy is a turnaround play (recession since 4Q04) • Italian banking system is growing at an higher pace • Consumer credit is growing double digit • Highest savings rate among Western European countries • Banking industry is highly fragmented • On Jan 13th Mr. Maramotti who owns a controlling stake in Credem Holding passed away • The family could sell its stake in the banking business focusing only on fashion • Maramotti’s heirs are currently working in the Fashion business • Italian Central Bank is weakened by EU and Italian Courts judgments
Why Credem? – ABN Amro’s View • ABN Amro’s perspective • Will to expand in Italian Banking system • Enough capital base (capital increase in April 05) • Big players are costly from: • An economic standpoint (performance figures as industry) • A political standpoint (both left and right parties won’t accept a foreigner) • Smaller and “Popolari” Banks present law issues still unresolved • A small bank acquisition won’t allow ABN Amro to enter the industry with a sufficient scale
Bank of Italy: The Real Obstacle • Italian Central Bank should/could: • Authorize any merger in the banking industry • Authorize any increase over the 5% ownership threshold • Valuate banks on the basis of capital adequacy, risks, holdings, internal control systems • Valuate any antitrust issue concerning banking companies • More on 1993’s banking law
Recent Deals and Bank of Italy • BBVA’s bid on BNL • Announced on in March 2005 • 2nd largest Spanish bank willing to acquire 7th Italian bank in which it has held a controlling stake for years • Deal failed upon the higher offer of Unipol • Bank of Italy has placed an high acceptance threshold • Bank of Italy is rumored to have helped Unipol and its allies on their bid
Recent Deals and Bank of Italy • ABN Amro’s bid on Antonveneta • Announced in March 2005 • Fairly priced 100% cash offer (sweetened later on) • Tender bid failed (only 2.88% NTV’s shareholders tendered their shares) • Bank of Italy encouraged and approved a worst offer from Banca Popolare Italiana • Court & Parliament are watching and scrutinizing the deal closely
Interloper analysis • Credem could be targeted by • Unicredito Italiano • HSBC • Banca Montepaschi • Italian local entrepreneurs • Barclay’s, Lehman Brothers & others interested in the Asset Mgmt business
Interloper Analysis - Unicredito • Unicredito Italiano • Now busy with HVB’s deal but… • Credem would have a strategic fit • Maramotti in UC’s Board • Market share in Centre/North Italy • Pioneer and EuroSGR integration (1st Italian Asset Manager) • UC is willing to acquire well managed companies
Interloper Analysis: HSBC & MPS • HSBC • Not successful tentative to launch an Asset Management business in Italy • Long term relationships with Credem (listed after Euromobiliare acquisition) • Banca Montepaschi • Strategically stalled • 5th banking Italian banking group • “environmentally” fitting with Credem
Interloper analysis: Italian entrepreneurs and other foreign banks • Local Entrepreneurs • Italian Central regions have a specific, more laid back, way to live • Italian industry is fragmented and local bank relationships are a competitive advantage • Emilia is rich and unite enough to engender an “industrial” bidder (with the favor of next Italian government) • Barclay’s & Lehman • Both willing to expand its AM business in Europe (Deutsche Bank and GLG deals) • Financially sound • Low expertise in the Italian commercial banking: should sell the branches (deal becomes complex)
Agenda • Cross Border M&A Deals in Europe • Regulatory and legal issues • Credem – Top Mid-Size Italian Bank • Credem Valuation • Strategical Fit & Synergies • Transaction Structure • Final Remarks
Strong Fit with ABN Amro Strategy Increase ABN Amro’s Consumer, Retail, Small Business, Mid-Market and Mortgage Business footprint in Europe Profitable franchise with high quality customer base complementing Asset & Wealth Management Strategy Value creating opportunity strengthening & leveraging ABN Amro commercial banking expertise inside and outside Italy
ABN Amro's strategic agenda: accelerate growth and build scale in mid-market segments Italian economy is mainly characterized by small/medium businesses - whose main source of financing is bank loans allowing for cross sell of consumer banking products, as well as Asset & Wealth Management. Product Innovation Top Private Clients Owners of Companies “Sweet Spot” Provider of Scale Distribution Mass Affluent Mid-Market Companies Mass Retail Small Business Consumer Clients Commercial Clients
55 56 246 128 119 20 140 263 1,032 296 1,069 389 947 1,390 4,082 2,118 1,444 1,253 2,415 6,524 17,131 4,892 12,966 23,838 4.2 7.5 15.5 8.2 5.6 4.5 11.1 37.6 65.2 19.3 50.7 87.2 Italian mid-market has significant untapped potential • High savings rate • Pension reform • Increased penetration rate in retail segment • Increased demand for more sophisticated products and longer debt maturities in SME segment CAGR of Consumer loans and mortgages Key growth drivers Consumer Loans 13% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% Italy Spain UK France Germany Consumer Loans CAGR 04 - 07 Mortgages CAGR 04 - 07 Mortgages Size(1) (EUR bln) Pen./PerCapita % of GDP Source: Countries Central Banks, brokers research report, and Datamonitor report (1)Size of the consumer loans market in 2003 and mortgage market in 2002 respectively
Detailed comparison for Credem vs other mid-size Italian Banks: Non-performing loans (NPL) ratio • Asset quality is outstanding • Sound risk management and prudent lending approach • Credem has territorial presence in some of the wealthiest regions in Italy
Revenue/Profit Breakdown for Credem • Well Balanced Businesses Mix • Credem one of the least exposed banks in Italian market to interest income as a result of AM/WM strategy
Comparison of ROE for Credem vs other Italian medium-size banks
10.1% 667.1% 1 1.0% 1091.8% 2969.0% Total: 1,000 branches Focus area: 697 branches 39 1.5% 983.1% 12 1.3% 200.9% 353.3% 10.2% 61.0% 893.6% 21.4% 755.5% 271.8% 20.8% 285.5% 938.4% Antonveneta vs. Credem: geographical fit in case ABN Amro will be able to close Antonveneta deal Credem Antonveneta
ABN AMRO has successfully integrated and grown mid-market franchises in Brazil and North America Michigan National Corporation (NA) Sudameris (Brazil) 16 April 2003 22 November 2000 Announcement date 27 October 2003 Completion date 02 April 2001 Transaction size BRL 2.19 bln (95% stake) or ~ EUR 600 mln USD 2.75 bln (100% stake) Announced synergies BRL 300 mln pa; as of 2005 USD 100 mln pa; from 3rd year onwards Cost synergies USD 100 mln pa; 25% target cost base BRL 300 mln pa; 30% target cost base Revenue synergies Not communicated (internal targets) Not communicated (internal targets) Realization of synergies Sudameris integrated ahead of schedule • MNC integrated ahead of schedule Cost synergies Total amount of synergies exceeding forecasts by 30%, with over-delivery in years 1 (+50%) and 2 (+16%) Synergies ahead of 2004 target, and clearly on course to realize the announced 2005 target of BRL 300mn Revenue synergies • Incremental sales in fee-based products • Additional benefits from leveraging LaSalle’s commercial banking coverage model, product suite, credit portfolio and risk management to MNC client base • Incremental contribution from enhanced portfolio management (credits/investments) • Additional benefits from cross-selling and applying best practice client coverage management across the client bases
Efficiency benefits from leveraging economies of scale (incl. general admin.) and IT related costs • Wholesale product suite, risk and credit portfolio management • Transaction Banking • Implementation of new servicing model => enhancement of the multi-channel approach • Total estimated restructuring charge: EUR 100M • Lower financing costs as a result of ABN Amro Credit Rating Millions EUR NPV of cost savings for year 2005 Basic Assumptions for Eurozone: ABN Amro WAAC for Credem based on Equity financing 15.90% 15% 322 20% 429 ABN Amro Beta 1.7 25% 536 Risk free rate 3.29% Cost saving synergies fully realized in 2005-9 Risk premium rate 7.00% Synergies – ABN Amro + Credem
Synergies Target Earnings (FYE 2005) EUR 1 bln After Tax Synergy EUR 430 mln Interest Expense (6% for debt) EUR 180 mln Incremental Net Income EUR 1.25 bln Pick-Up/Dilution Analysis Pre-Acquisition EPS Post Acquisition EPS EUR 3.3 bln= EUR 1.99EUR 3.3 bln + EUR 1.25 bln= EUR 2.74 1,662,420,000 1,662,420,000 P/E 10.5 (not changed – to be conservative) Implied share price EUR 28.77 Current stock price EUR 20.62
Conservative estimates: revenue upside not included in EPS calculations • Leverage ABN Amro’s: • Servicing model from affluent / private banking clients • Wholesale product capabilities • International presence • Expertise in asset management and derivatives • Global consumer finance capabilities • Offer of standard banking services in Italy to ABN Amro’s international clients through Credem network
Agenda • Cross Border M&A Deals in Europe • Regulatory and legal issues • Credem – Top Mid-Size Italian Bank • Credem Valuation • Strategical Fit & Synergies • Transaction Structure • Final Remarks
Credem Offer: summary terms • Voluntary tender offer • Tender for all 275.5 mln shares currently outstanding not already owned by ABN AMRO • Offer subject to conditions precedent such as regulatory approvals, no frustrating actions and no material adverse change to Credem’s business • Total maximum consideration EUR 2.87 bln for 100% of total shares, EUR 10.4 per Credem share • 19.34% premium to last price(8.81/share); 23.93% premium to average official price over last 6 months(8.5/share) Offer structure Credem price