Statistical / empirical models

1. Statistical / empirical models • Model ‘validation’ • should obtain biomass/NDVI measurements over wide range of conditions • R2 quoted relates only to conditions under which model was developed • i.e. no information on NDVI values outside of range measured (0.11 to 0.18 in e.g. shown)

2. ‘Physically-based’ models • e.g. Simple population growth • Require: • model of population Q over time t • Theory: • in a ‘closed’ community, population change given by: • increase due to births • decrease due to deaths • over some given time period t

3. ‘Physically-based’ models • population change given by: • increase due to births • decrease due to deaths [1]

4. ‘Physically-based’ models • Assume that for period t • rate of births per head of population is B • rate of deathsper head of population is D • We can write: • Implicit assumption that B,D are constant over time t [2]

5. ‘Physically-based’ models • If model parameters, B,D, constant and ignoring age/sex distribution and environmental factors (food, disease etc) Then ...

6. [3]

7. ‘Physically-based’ models • As time period considered decreases, can write eqn [3] as a differential equation: • i.e. rate of change of population with time equal to birth-rate minus death-rate multiplied by current population • Solution is ...

8. ‘Physically-based’ models • Consider the following: • what does Q0 mean? • does the model work if the population is small? • What happens if B>D (and vice-versa)? • How might you ‘calibrate’ the model parameters? [hint - think logarithmically]

9. ‘Physically-based’ models Q B > D Q0 B < D t

10. Other Distinctions • Another distinction • Analytical / Numerical

11. Other Distinctions • Analytical • resolution of statement of model as combination of mathematical variables and ‘analytical functions’ • i.e. “something we can actually write down” • e.g. biomass = a + b*NDVI • e.g.

12. Other Distinctions • Numerical • solution to model statement found e.g. by calculating various model components over discrete intervals • e.g. for integration / differentiation

13. Which type of model to use? • Statistical • advantages • simple to formulate • generally quick to calculate • require little / no knowledge of underlying (e.g. physical) principles • (often) easy to invert • as have simple analytical formulation

14. Which type of model to use? • Statistical • disadvantages • may only be appropriate to limited range of parameter • may only be applicable under limited observation conditions • validity in extrapolation difficult to justify • does not improve general understanding of process

15. Which type of model to use? • Physical/Theoretical/Mechanistic • advantages • if based on fundamental principles, applicable to wide range of conditions • use of numerical solutions (& fast computers) allow great flexibility in modelling complexity • may help to understand process • e.g. examine role of different assumptions

16. Which type of model to use? • Physical/Theoretical/Mechanistic • disadvantages • more complex models require more time to calculate • get a bigger computer! • Supposition of knowledge of all important processes and variables as well as mathematical formulation for process • often difficult to obtain analytical solution • often tricky to invert

17. Summary • Empirical (regression) vs theoretical (understanding) • uncertainties • validation • Computerised Environmetal Modelling: A Practical Introduction Using Excel, Jack Hardisty, D. M. Taylor, S. E. Metcalfe, 1993 (Wiley) • Computer Simulation in Physical Geography, M. J. Kirkby, P. S. Naden, T. P. Burt, D. P. Butcher, 1993 (Wiley)

18. ‘Physically-based’ models • e.g. Simple population growth • Require: • model of population Q over time t • Theory: • in a ‘closed’ community, population change given by: • increase due to births • decrease due to deaths • over some given time period t

19. ‘Physically-based’ models • population change given by: • increase due to births • decrease due to deaths [1]

20. ‘Physically-based’ models • Assume that for period t • rate of births per head of population is B • rate of deathsper head of population is D • We can write: • Implicit assumption that B,D are constant over time t [2]

21. ‘Physically-based’ models • If model parameters, B,D, constant and ignoring age/sex distribution and environmental factors (food, disease etc) Then ...

22. [3]

23. ‘Physically-based’ models • As time period considered decreases, can write eqn [3] as a differential equation: • i.e. rate of change of population with time equal to birth-rate minus death-rate multiplied by current population • Solution is ...

24. ‘Physically-based’ models • Consider the following: • what does Q0 mean? • does the model work if the population is small? • What happens if B>D (and vice-versa)? • How might you ‘calibrate’ the model parameters? [hint - think logarithmically]

25. ‘Physically-based’ models Q B > D Q0 B < D t

26. Other Distinctions • Another distinction • Analytical / Numerical

27. Other Distinctions • Analytical • resolution of statement of model as combination of mathematical variables and ‘analytical functions’ • i.e. “something we can actually write down” • e.g. biomass = a + b*NDVI • e.g.

28. Other Distinctions • Numerical • solution to model statement found e.g. by calculating various model components over discrete intervals • e.g. for integration / differentiation

29. Which type of model to use? • Statistical • advantages • simple to formulate • generally quick to calculate • require little / no knowledge of underlying (e.g. physical) principles • (often) easy to invert • as have simple analytical formulation

30. Which type of model to use? • Statistical • disadvantages • may only be appropriate to limited range of parameter • may only be applicable under limited observation conditions • validity in extrapolation difficult to justify • does not improve general understanding of process

31. Which type of model to use? • Physical/Theoretical/Mechanistic • advantages • if based on fundamental principles, applicable to wide range of conditions • use of numerical solutions (& fast computers) allow great flexibility in modelling complexity • may help to understand process • e.g. examine role of different assumptions

32. Which type of model to use? • Physical/Theoretical/Mechanistic • disadvantages • more complex models require more time to calculate • get a bigger computer! • Supposition of knowledge of all important processes and variables as well as mathematical formulation for process • often difficult to obtain analytical solution • often tricky to invert

33. Summary • Empirical (regression) vs theoretical (understanding) • uncertainties • validation • Computerised Environmetal Modelling: A Practical Introduction Using Excel, Jack Hardisty, D. M. Taylor, S. E. Metcalfe, 1993 (Wiley) • Computer Simulation in Physical Geography, M. J. Kirkby, P. S. Naden, T. P. Burt, D. P. Butcher, 1993 (Wiley)