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Frank Wechsung* and co-workers from phase I of GLOWA-Elbe

May 19 th 2005 Second GLOWA-Status Conference, Cologne. Challenges of global change for sustainable water use in the German Elbe basin. Frank Wechsung* and co-workers from phase I of GLOWA-Elbe. * Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Water related facts, trends & concepts

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Frank Wechsung* and co-workers from phase I of GLOWA-Elbe

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  1. May 19 th 2005 Second GLOWA-Status Conference, Cologne Challenges of global change for sustainable water use in the German Elbe basin Frank Wechsung* and co-workers from phase I of GLOWA-Elbe *Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

  2. Water related facts, trends & concepts Integrative Methodological Approach Global change scenarios Scenario impacts□ Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry □ Water availability in Spree-Havel Adjusting measures □Spree-Havel basin Overview

  3. 1. Water related facts, trends & concepts • Rural beside of metropolitan areas (Berlin, Prague, Hamburg, Leipzig, Dresden). • Water availability second lowest in Europe (680 m3/capita year). Fig. 1 The Elbe basin

  4. 1. Water related facts, trends & concepts • Mild climate (8.6°C) with low precipitation totals (616 mm) • Climatic water balance (P-Epot) just even. • Rich on surface water. • Territory share of the German part by East German states: 88% . Fig. 1 The Elbe basin

  5. 1. Water related facts, trends & concepts East-German transition (since 1989) • Welfare • Initial increase in per capita income from about 10 to 16 thousand €. • Investments in public infrastructure. • Deindustrialisation: > Net loss of 3 Mill. Working places. • Shrinking population:> Emigration,> Dropped birth rates from 1.6 to 0.77, recently climbing back to 1.3. • Water sector • Increase in water quality. • 12 000 ha lake surface for Lusatia. • High GDP share of primary sectors:> gas, energy & water supply and Agriculture. • Oversized water infrastructure. • Increasing water prices. • Decreasing water consumption per capita. Fig. 1 The Elbe basin

  6. Recent 50 year changes Temperature +1.1 °C  Precipitation -46 mm, Summer +50 mm, Winter 1. Water related facts, trends & concepts Climate Drying Fig. 1 The Elbe basin

  7. 1. Water related facts, trends & concepts • Policies for sustainable use of surface water: • Alleviation of landscape run off, increasing the residence time of surface water. • Further decrease of nutrient emissions from point and diffuse sources. GLOWA-Elbe: Applicability under global change and necessary specifications.

  8. Water related facts, trends & concepts Integrative Methodological Approach Global change scenarios Scenario impacts□ Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry □ Water availability in Spree-Havel Adjusting measures □Spree-Havel basin Overview

  9. 2. Integrative Methodological Approach- Distributed Mode • IMA-General: • Reference system to control research activities within a global change project. • IMA-Distributed Mode • Adjusting to specific needs • Directing • Harmonizing and • Synchronizing research.

  10. Unstrut Elbe Elbe German Spree-Havel Glowa-Elbe control Spreewald Berlin 2. Integrated Methodological Approach- Research Network Refinement • specific problem structures, • regional hot spots, • and the available knowledge. Water quality: N-Entry Water quantity: surface water regulation • Basic definitions: • topics & • scales. Harmonizing: scenarios, indicators. Crosschecking: simulations. Final integration: extra- and interpolations, aggregation.

  11. Water related facts, trends & concepts Integrative Methodological Approach Global change scenarios Scenario impacts□ Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry □ Water availability in Spree-Havel Adjusting measures □Spree-Havel basin Outlook Overview

  12. 3. Global change scenarios Climate How likely is further regional drying in the German Elbe basin ? Global ECHAM4-OPYC3 Europe REMO German Elbe

  13. From A1/ B2 SRES storylines • general economic growth • population change • operating margins of single sectors (tourism) and sector policies. and sub-sequently specific sector scenarios were formulated • Brown coal mining in Lusatia: • No alternative A1 policy • Finishing after 2035 in consistency with B2 • Agricultural policy: • ‚Partial liberalization‘ following A1 • ‚Fees on mineral N fertilizer‘ use following B2 3. Global change scenarios General socioeconomic development, perspectives for agriculture and brown coal mining

  14. Water related facts, trends & concepts Integrated Methodological Approach Global change scenarios Scenario impacts□ Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry□ Water availability in Spree-Havel Adjusting measures □Spree-Havel basin Outlook Overview

  15. 1 Problem 1 Scenario 3 Impact 2 Indicators & criteria • Farms Nitrogen surpluss • not altered by climate change, significantly decreased ‘only’ by Nitrogen fee • Nitrogen entry to the Elbe • decreased only when Nitrogen surplus was reduced 4. 1. Scenario impacts: Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry to the basin • Water quality Climate • 2025-2016 vs. 1990-2000 ∆(P-Epot): -27 mm Frames of development • Status ex (Business as usual) • Partial liberalisation • Nitrogen fee

  16. 4. 1. Scenario impacts: Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry to the basin 184 Subbasins, 5 year mode 112 districts, yearly mode 11651 hydrotops, daily mode

  17. at the same order as STAR 32 impact on EtandRun off 4. 1. Scenario impacts: Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry to the basin

  18. Water related facts, trends & concepts Integrative Methodological Approach Global change scenarios Scenario impacts□ Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry□Water availability in Spree-Havel Adjusting measures □Spree-Havel basin Overview

  19. 1 WBALMO400 water users14 reservoirs170 local balances Problem 1 Scenario 3 Impact 2 Indicators & criteria • the minimum of 8m3/s could not be guaranteed anymore during the summer of a dry year • Inflow to Berlin 4. 2. Scenario impacts: Water availability in Spree-Havel • Water availability in Spree-Havel Climate • 2020-2050 vs. 1990-2000 ∆P: - 29 mm ∆T: + 0.5°K Frame of development: • business as usual • duration increased by about 6 month, extra demand of 1000 t calc hydrate for neutralization treatment • Flooding of misused coal pits

  20. Water related facts, trends & concepts Integrated Methodological Approach Global change scenarios Scenario impacts□ Agricultural land use and nitrogen entry □ Water availability in Spree-Havel Adjusting measures□Spree-Havel basin Overview

  21. 1 Problem 1 Scenario 2 Indicators & criteria 5. Adjusting measures in the Spree-Havel basin • Water availability in Spree-Havel • Climate: • Frame of development: • Management alternatives at the upper Spree region: • SRES A1 • SRES B2 • Basis • Accelerated flooding • Reduced ditches • Water imports from the Oderbasin at Spreewald hight • Water import from the Oder at Berlin hight • Recent • STAR100 • Net benefit discounted at 2% for water supply, fish farming, water treatment &tourism at the new lake sites • Water availability for industry and ecosystems • Inflow for Spreewald and Berlin

  22. 1 Scenario 2 Indicators & criteria 3 Impact 1 Scenario 4 Evaluation 2 Indicators & criteria 3 Impact 4 Evaluation 5. Adjusting measures in the Spree-Havel basin Of course, sensitive to suggested discount rate !

  23. Project I: Integration und -coordinationIntegrative Methodological Approach GLOWA-Elbe (IMA) Project advisory board Project II: Regionalisation of Global Change Frame of Development GlobalChange Project III: Surface Water Availability Project IV: Surface Water Quality Management-options Run off regulation Nutrient entry Management level Eco-hydrological Indicators Socio-economic Indicators Eco-hydrological Indicators Socio-economic Indicators Impact- analysis Multi-criteria analysis Cost-efficiency analysis Evaluation Project V: Cross conflict field scenario analysis Regional actors, decision bodies Conclusion IMA feasible concept for distributed global change research. • Climate drying might continue. • Severe water shortages at Berlin after 2030 during the summer month. • Adaptation: • Accelerated flooding of abandoned coal pits, • Earlier introduction of water saving technologies, • Longer Mining (?). • Nitrogen entry to the Elbe river and finally to the North Sea is robust to climate change. • Management strategies that reduce the nitrogen surplus of agricultural land are needed. Vattenfall Europe (for water availability) and Agriculture (for water quality) are key regional actors for matching sustainability standards and adjusting to global change !

  24. WWW.GLOWA-Elbe.de Thank You For Your Attention!

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