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Redistricting Practicalities: Lessons from the Midwest Mapping Project

Redistricting Practicalities: Lessons from the Midwest Mapping Project. Michael P. McDonald Associate Professor, George Mason University Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution Consultant, 2000 Arizona Independent Redistricting Com’ish

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Redistricting Practicalities: Lessons from the Midwest Mapping Project

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  1. Redistricting Practicalities:Lessons from the Midwest Mapping Project Michael P. McDonald Associate Professor, George Mason University Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution Consultant, 2000 Arizona Independent Redistricting Com’ish Expert or Consulting Expert Witness in AK, AZ, CA, MI, & NY

  2. Census Geography Census Place: Springfield, IL Water: Lake Springfield Census Block Boundary

  3. A Circular District in Milwaukee Area

  4. Compactness Lessons • Three ways to measure district compactness: • Perimeter Lengths: Districts that follow straight-edge features like county lines • District Area: Circular districts with ragged edges • Center of Population: Districts that encompass urban areas • Compactness typically conflicts with respecting political boundaries, particularly municipalities, cities, towns, and other political subdivisions.

  5. Taking Geography Seriously • Where Democrats and Republicans live matters

  6. Census Geography Election Boundaries Water Census Block Boundary Ward Boundary

  7. Minnesota Partisanship

  8. Minnesota Congressional (8) Districts

  9. Minnesota House (134) Districts

  10. Illinois Partisanship

  11. Illinois Congressional (19) Districts

  12. Illinois House (118) Districts

  13. Respecting Counties Lines:Peoria and Tazewell Counties, Illinois

  14. Lessons from Political Geography • Democrats tend to be inefficiently concentrated in urban areas located along state borders from a partisan fairness standpoint. • BUT, the size of the districts relative to the size of a state’s urban areas matters. The smaller the district size, the worse Democrats do. • Weak evidence that respecting census place boundaries modestly mitigates this disadvantage by tying mid-sized urban areas together. • BUT, can inefficiently concentrate Democrats into large urban cities.

  15. Racial Communities • Finding: Minority communities are highly concentrated into Cleveland and Detroit area districts by rules respecting political boundaries. • A racial bloc voting analysis would need to be performed to determine if these are Voting Rights Act Section 2 violations

  16. Cleveland/Cuyahoga County Current Lower House Districts

  17. Cleveland/Cuyahoga County Current Lower House Districts

  18. Detroit/Wayne County Current Lower House Districts

  19. Detroit/Wayne County Current Lower House Districts

  20. Existing State Constitutional and Statutory Rules • Redistricting criteria are often in conflict • How to resolve conflicts is often a matter of interpretation

  21. Respect Political Subdivisions (WI 61st District)

  22. Franklin County, Ohio Respect Political Subdivisions

  23. Conclusions • One-size reform does not fit all districts, even within the same state • A politically blind process does not guarantee a politically fair outcome • Care should be taken in choosing criteria, as a set of criteria can be a gerrymander in sheep’s clothing.

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