1 / 18

Collaborating on the Development of Warn-On-Forecast

Collaborating on the Development of Warn-On-Forecast. Mike Foster / David Andra WFO Norman OK Feb. 18, 2010. Norman Forecast Office. Storm Prediction Center. National Severe Storms Laboratory. Collaboration. Radar Operations Center. OU. ESRL/GSD. Warning Decision Training Branch.

whilemina-dejesus
Télécharger la présentation

Collaborating on the Development of Warn-On-Forecast

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Collaborating on the Development of Warn-On-Forecast Mike Foster / David Andra WFO Norman OK Feb. 18, 2010

  2. Norman Forecast Office Storm Prediction Center National Severe Storms Laboratory Collaboration Radar Operations Center OU ESRL/GSD Warning Decision Training Branch 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 | | | | | | 20xx > JDOP Science/Technology Operations Early algorithms JointHWT Pre-STORM WDSS OK Mesonet DOPLIGHT PAR CASA VFlo REFRACT VORTEX2 ProbWarn Warn-On- Forecast WDSS II JPOL IHOP VORTEX NEXRAD IOT&E II MAPS COPS QED Pre-AWIPS MARD Risk Reduction AWIPS MAR NSSL/SPC

  3. 2008 EWP Participants • Visiting Forecasters/Evaluators (26) • NWS Regions: Alaska, Central, Western, Southern, Western • Environment Canada • Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia • Cognizant Scientists (30) • NSSL, OU, CIMMS, WDTB, WFO-OUN, U. Mass, U. VA • WAS*IS: Dr. Eve Gruntfest • Weekly Coordinators • IT Coordinator • Plus other IT help from NWC • Operations Coordinator • EWP Team Leaders

  4. OUN WRF • Convective initiation and mode • 4 km grid – ARW core • Initialize every hour – eight hour forecast • LAPS initialization – hot start radar • OUN WRF 20 km - boundary conditions

  5. LOCAL WRF MODEL 18Z April 7 2008 Forecast for 23Z

  6. 450 PM

  7. 2 of 5 Warn on Forecast in 2020: What might it look like? Radar and Initial Forecast at 2100 CST Radar at 2130 CST: Accurate Forecast Forecast looks on track, storm circulation (hook echo) is tracking along centerline of highest tornadic probabilities An ensemble of storm-scale NWP models predict the path of a potentially tornadic supercell during the next 1 hour. The ensemble is used to create a probabilistic tornado hazard forecast grid. Most Likely Tornado Path Most Likely Tornado Path Developing thunderstorm 30% 30% 50% 50% 70% 70% T=2200 CST T=2200 CST T=2150 T=2150 T=2140 T=2140 T=2130 T=2130 T=2120 CST T=2120 CST Courtesy Lou Wicker, NSSL NSSL Warn on Forecast Briefing March 5, 2007

  8. Alternative Warning and Forecast Formats • High temporal- and spatial-resolution probabilistic hazard grids

  9. WoF Challenges • best approaches to radar data qc and assimilation into models • determining how WoFinformation will be used in NWS operations and communicatedto the public • storm-scale process understanding, predictability, and parameterization improvements • WoF project priorities, timing, evaluation and implementation strategies

  10. Some assumptions… • WoF will evolve into operations • Not a turn key system • May be regional or local differences in implementation • There will remain a detection component • An alert notification will inform of high impact phenomena • Science and technology will continue to expand the number of observations, analyses and forecasts

  11. …and some more… • Data volume and complexity will grow • Dual pol, Phased array , CASA • Ensemble regional, local andstorm scale models • New forecast and warning formats and dissemination • Hazard probability envelopes • Graphical • Text • More frequent updates possible • Techniques will require calibration • Techniques will require bias removal

  12. …and more • Role of the human expert will change • Today’s warning forecaster processes inputs and makes warning decision • The same process tomorrow will mean many inputs not considered • Manage the process • Review • Assess • Correct • Many others…

  13. Things the WFO can do now…

  14. Radar data quality control • Review and assess radar data in real time • Review and assess storm scale analysis in real time

  15. Information use in operations and communication to users • A proving ground for operations • Dedicated WFO position(s) during event operations • Post-event reviews of information and actions • HWT

  16. Information use in operations and communication to users • A proving ground for information • Graphicasts • Significant weather advisories • Warning decision updates • Interact with users groups; EMs, Schools, medical groups, local decision makers, SSWIM

  17. Evaluation and implementation strategies • Evaluate suitability of storm scale forecasts • Risk reduction of phased implementation

More Related