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INSPECT AWARE Cooperation with WG4 & WG7

WG5: STATUS of activities. VERSUS MEC/ Rfdbk. INSPECT AWARE Cooperation with WG4 & WG7. COMMON PLOTS NWP Test suite. COSMO SMC meeting, 5-6 February 2019. Common Plot Activity 2018-2019. Guidelines prepared by WG5c and sent in Oct (WG5 web repository)

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INSPECT AWARE Cooperation with WG4 & WG7

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  1. WG5: STATUS of activities VERSUS MEC/Rfdbk INSPECT AWARE Cooperation with WG4 & WG7 COMMON PLOTS NWP Test suite COSMO SMC meeting, 5-6 February 2019

  2. Common Plot Activity 2018-2019 • Guidelines prepared by WG5c and sent in Oct (WG5 web repository) • Web page content with Annual Report for 2017-2018 (available on web, D.Boucouvala) • and Seasonal Common Plots for JJA-SON 2018 (available, A. Kirsanov) • Abort VERSUS as mandatory for Common Plots production. Still MCH stopped • participating until MEC/Rfdbk is implemented through PPCARMA • Keep the standard parameter scores for CM1 and CM2 to maintain long term • trends • Continue analysis with Wind Performance Rose for wind sp/dir (M.S.Tesini) • Include FSS plot analysis (N.Vela) COSMO SMC meeting, 5-6 February 2019

  3. Common Area 1: coarse resolution DWD (ICON-EU) RHM IMGW DWD (ICON-EU) MCH COMET NMA HNMS COSMO SMC meeting, 5-6 February 2019

  4. Common Area 2 COSMO SMC meeting, 5-6 February 2019

  5. Wind speed/dir evaluation Wind rose diagrams (by Maria Stefania Tesini) • New representation of wind speed/dir performance, novel diagram in which scores and type of errors of wind forecast are summarized according to directions • A number of stations from Common Area 1 are selected and scores have to be provided for them according to the directions given. Light:ws<10 knots Light-Moderate:10≤ ws < 20 Knots Moderate:20≤ ws < 30 Knots Strong: ≥30 Knots For each station, 10m-wind observations and corresponding data predicted by model are categorized in octants for wind direction and in classes for wind speed. COSMO SMC meeting, 5-6 February 2019

  6. PROCEDURE Model grid adaptation (LIBSIM) Area selection (LIBSIM) FSS calculation for each day for period 10-11/2018 (VAST) D0 and D1 (where possible) Calculation of percentage of FSSuseful for each combination of precipitation intensity/spatial area for October and November (dedicated software) Plot production (dedicated software) GRIDS/MODELS 0.03°: COSMO IT, COSMO 2I, COSMO D2, COSMO 1(?) 0.04°: COSMO PL (limited area) 0.07°: COSMO I5, COSMO GR. OBSERVATION Opera database (retrieved and processed in grib format by HNMS) Request for additonal FTEs for FSS (0.075FTEs?) Fraction Skill Score for Common Area 2(Naima Vela, Arpa-pt) COSMO SMC meeting, 5-6 February 2019

  7. Common Plot Activity – Status and Future • Remains as an activity to encourage all services to contribute to the minimum necessary verification practices to monitor COSMO model performance (trend since 2011) over same domain and periods – cost 0.73FTEs/year for COSMO • Common Verification Software (CSV) is about to change after successful completion of PP-CARMA project, a new WG6-SPRT CP proposal will be submitted once project is completed COSMO SMC meeting, 5-6 February 2019

  8. PP INSPECT Anastasia Bundel (1), Flora Gofa (2) (PP leaders) and Dmitry Alferov (1), Elena Astakhova (1), Petra Baumann (4), Dimitra Boukouvala (2),, Ulrich Damrath (3), Pierre Eckert (4), Alexander Kirsanov (1), Xavier Lapillonne (4), Joanna Linkowska (5), Chiara Marsigli (6), Andrea Montani (6), Anatoly Muraviev (1), Elena Oberto (7), Maria Stefania Tesini (6), Naima Vela (7), Andrzej Wyszogrodzki (5), and Mikhail Zaichenko (1), André Walser (4) • Final Technical report available on COSMO web • http://www.cosmo-model.org/content/model/documentation/techReports/docs/techReport37.pdf • Collaboration with MesoVICT international community is continuing. MesoVICT final meeting was announced during the recent monthly webconf (January ‘19). Necessity for a few WG5 people to participate if resources are available. • List of publications extracted from MesoVICT and possibly a final paper summarizing the main outcomes of MesoVICT • PP-INSPECT work to be continued partially by PP-AWARE (Task4) COSMO SMC meeting, 5-6 February 2019

  9. Collaboration in cross cutting issues (SP related): High Impact Weather evaluation: WG4, WG5, WG7 Basic Idea: Understanding the forecast quality in high impact weather situations. Important is also to verify such weather forecasts in a meaningful way to the end users by exploring metrics of the value of forecasts in decision making. Goal: Provide COSMO Community with an overview of forecast methods and forecast evaluation approaches that are linked with high impact weather (not necessarily considered extreme to all users). Joint session during GM2018: Formulated main approaches, interest for participation PP-AWARE(to be presented on 06.02.2019)

  10. PP-AWARE: Appraisal of "Challenging WeAther"FoREcasts Joint Project Proposal: WG5 &WG4 (collaboration with WG7) • The goal of the PP is to provide COSMO Community with an overview of forecast methods and forecast evaluation approaches that are linked to high impact weather (not necessarily considered extreme to all users). • Key forecast quality and verification aspects to consider in this project include: • How well high-impact weather is represented in the observations, including biases and random errors, and their sensitivity to observation density. • How well high-impact weather is represented in models, including systematic and stochastic errors, and their sensitivity to model resolution. • How well high-impact weather is represented in postprocessing. • The predictability, current predictive skill, and the user’s interpretation of forecast value in high-impact weather situations (observed and/or forecast). COSMO SMC meeting, 5-6 February 2019

  11. PP CARMA Common Area with Rfdbk/MEC Application COSMO SMC meeting, 5-6 February 2019

  12. PP CARMA • Goal • replace the existing VERSUS verification software environment with the MEC-Rfdbk software developed by DWD, as a Common Verification Software (CVS) to perform part of the verification activities in the consortium • main use of the new CVS - production of the Common Plot (CP) verification • EPS, conditional, spatial and other verification - with other available tools (VERSUS, VAST, etc.) in each service. • addresses the need to perform traditional point verification both for the surface and the upper air using conventional methods • centralized transfer and visualization of CP statistics on the COSMO wed server • Links to Support Activities - NWP Test Suite and Common Plot verification (SPRT) • Links to PP C2I Task 3 for the evaluation and comparison of COSMO and ICON-LAM forecasts • Start 12.2018 – End 02.2020 COSMO SMC meeting, 5-6 February 2019

  13. PP CARMA Design of the System COSMO SMC meeting, 5-6 February 2019

  14. PP CARMA Task 1. First Level Support Implementation and Training Start 12.2018 – End 04.2019 – ON-GOING 1.1 Documentation review (MEC-Rfdbk), analysis of new material required. Start 12.2018 – End 01.2019 - on-going 1.2 Documentation preparation for CP activity content (MEC-Rfdbk) Start 01.2019 – End 02.2019 - on-going 1.3 Preparation of a complete example set of data (one season, one model) to be used Start 01.2019 – End 02.2019 –will begin shortly 1.4 Training provided by DWD experts for first level support to the PST (Project Support Team) Start 03.2019 – End 03.2019 - Slight delay due to scheduling conflicts, but details have been already discussed;will take place between 09-11 April 2019 1.5 Implementation of the MEC-Rfdbk system @NMA and @HNMS (PST). Start 03.2019 – End 05.2019 1.6 Adaptation of scripts for the production of the CP requirements (Task 1.2) Start 05.2019 – End 06.2019 1.7 Setup of web interface with the use of Shiny R routines on COSMO server Start 05.2019 – End 06.2019 Contributors: A. Iriza-Burca (NMA), F. Gofa (HNMS), B. Maco (NMA), F. Fundel (DWD), R. Potthast (DWD), E. Bauernschubert (DWD), D. Boucouvala (HNMS), T. Andreadis (HNMS) Total Task 1: 0.780 FTEs COSMO SMC meeting, 5-6 February 2019

  15. PP CARMA Task 2. Second Level Implementation and support Start 05.2019 – End 10.2019 Contributors:PST and NMSs responsible person Total Task 2: 0.90 FTEs Task 3. Cross-validation of implementation Start 09.2019 – End 12.2019 Contributors: PST and NMSs responsible person Total Task 3: 1.25 FTEs Task 4. Implementation of CP activity content Start 10.2019 – End 12.2019 Contributors: PST and NMSs responsible person Total Task 4: 0.44 FTEs Task 5 Elaboration of guidelines for CARMA (MEC-Rfdbk) system use Start 12.2019 – End 02.2020 Contributors: A. Iriza-Burca (NMA), F. Gofa (HNMS) Total Task 5: 0.08 FTEs Task 0. Administrative Tasks Start 10.2018 – End 12.2019 Contributors: Amalia Iriza-Burca (NMA) Total Task 0: 0.2 FTEs Estimated resources (in FTE-years) needed in total: 3.450 FTEs (mostly in 2019) COSMO SMC meeting, 5-6 February 2019

  16. NWP METEOROLOGICAL TEST SUITE - UPDATE • Discussed in previous agenda point • forecast mode, SP 7km and 2.8km, MEC-Rfdbk(?) • hindcast mode, MEC-Rfdbk(to be initialized with 5.06 vs. 5.05) • All verification score outputs are available at • Important to add scores/geographic representation by country stratification http://www.cosmo-model.org/shiny/users/fdbk/ COSMO SMC meeting, 5-6 February 2019

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