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Forecasting Activities at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

Forecasting Activities at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. CPC International Desks Team Endalk Bekele, Vadlamani Kumar, Tom Di Liberto, Nicholas Novella, Miliaritiana Robjhon, and Wassila Thiaw Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Predictions.

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Forecasting Activities at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

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  1. Forecasting Activities at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center CPC International Desks Team Endalk Bekele, Vadlamani Kumar, Tom Di Liberto, Nicholas Novella, Miliaritiana Robjhon, and Wassila Thiaw Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Predictions

  2. The NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Predictions (NCWCP) New home of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740

  3. Training Coverage in Africa NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center Official US precipitation and temperature outlooks Decision Support Services Real time monitoring of the global climate system Official ENSO outlooks Capacity building

  4. CPC International Deskshttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ Expert Assessment Products • Daily Weather Forecasts • Week1 & 2 Outlooks • Seasonal Rainfall Outlooks • Hazards Outlooks • Monsoon Monitoring Analyses and Tools Capacity Building

  5. Assess state of MJO Week1 & Week2 Outlooks Process Assess Prediction Tools Construct forecasts Disseminate forecasts Discuss other sources of predictability

  6. The Madden Julian Oscillation Spring 2005 MJO Event • The MJO is a global scale wave that occurs in the tropics and results in changes in important atmospheric and oceanic features: rainfall and Sea surface temperature (SST) • Enhances predictability in parts of the tropics Courtesy of J. Gottschalck

  7. MJO composites of weekly rainfall probabilities for – MAM Chance for weekly rainfall to exceed the 67th percentile scaled with the mean probability. 1 5 2 6 3 7 High chance for rainfall to exceed the upper tercile 4 8

  8. Subseasonal Forecasting Week-1 Outlook

  9. Verification of the Week-1 Outlook

  10. Heidke skill scorefor Week-1 Outlook Verification of the Week-1 Outlook

  11. Seasonal Forecasting Much of the predictable part of seasonal climate comes as a result of anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in tropical ocean basins. Normal El NińoLa Nińa

  12. Global Precipitation Regressions Courtesy of Peitao Peng

  13. Early September CPC/IRI Consensus Probabilistic ENSO Forecast

  14. CFS v2 Standardized SST Anomaly Forecasts, OND 2012, Sep

  15. Correlation CFSv2 Oct-Dec P, Sep IC and observed rainfall

  16. Seasonal rainfall guidance for Africa OND 2012, Aug IC

  17. Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook SOND 2012, from Aug

  18. Future Plan • Verify and improve forecasts • Work with academia to transition research to operations • Explore opportunities for emerging climate applications

  19. Thank you

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