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Erik.Ranheim@intertanko Manager Research and Projects

Erik.Ranheim@intertanko.com Manager Research and Projects Russian oil Export in Baltic Sea transits Stockholm 3 November 2005. Russian/CIS oil. Setting the Scene.

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Erik.Ranheim@intertanko Manager Research and Projects

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  1. Erik.Ranheim@intertanko.com Manager Research and Projects Russian oil Export in Baltic Sea transits Stockholm 3 November 2005

  2. Russian/CIS oil

  3. Setting the Scene I cannot forecast you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key? The key is Russian national interests. Sir Winston Churchill, 1939

  4. Setting the Scene • Scene 2004 • Russian oil prevented a 3rd oil crises • Safety record of tankers from FSU high • Europe completely dependent on Russian oil Change of Scene? • Scene 2005 • Russian oil export slowing – tension in the oil market • Safety record continue to be excellent - no new major tanker casualties • Increasing oil export from special projects (Primorks (soon peaking?), Sakhalin, Northern areas) and pipelines? • Overinvestment in ice-classed tonnage?

  5. Oil Export

  6. World increase in oil demand supplied by FSU and the rest mbd

  7. World largest crude oil exporters - mbd

  8. FSU crude oil and products export - mbd

  9. European crude oil import • mbd

  10. Sources of European oil import 1H05 – 12.9 mbd • 4.4 mbd • (The US 0.32 mbd from FSU 1H05) • Source: IEA

  11. Oil export from FSU 1H05 • Source: IEA

  12. Market effect (pipeline effect) • of one mbd transported various trades

  13. Safety Performance

  14. Tanker incidents • World wide and FSU related • Collisions, grounding, Hull & Machinery, Fire & Explosions, others

  15. Tanker incidents and pollutionBaltic, Black Sea, Bosporus, East Med

  16. Tanker trade by hull -1Q00-2Q05 • tankers above 50,000 dwt Black Sea Baltic Sea m dwt m dwt Source: Fearnleys/INTERTANKO

  17. Tanker trade by hull -1Q00-2Q05 • tankers above 50,000 dwt % Baltic Sea % Black Sea Source: Fearnleys

  18. Tanker trade by hull -1Q04-2Q05 • tankers above 50,000 dwt m dwt number Source: Fearnleys/INTERTANKO

  19. Baltic transits18,000-50,000 dwt-2004-2Q05 Dirty cargoes Clean cargoes Source: Riverlake/INTERTANKO

  20. Baltic transits18,000-50,000 dwt-2004-2Q05 • UK Continent 343 52% • Continent 115 17% • W Africa 55 8% • Mediterranean 34 5% • UK Med 25 4% • UK W Africa 5 1% • Others 87 13% • Total 666 100% Clean cargoes Source: Riverlake/INTERTANKO

  21. Tanker trade by hull -1Q00-2Q05 • tankers above 50,000 dwt from Murmansk area m tonnes 13 14 19 17 12 11 Source: Fearnleys

  22. Tanker trade by hull -1Q00-2Q05 • Aframax tanker – spot fixtures from Murmansk area • Movements 2004 53 • Movements 2005 39 • Movements total 92 • Russian ships: 48 (52%) • Average cargo size 99,377 tonnes • Average tanker size 109,078dwt • Average age 2004 2.6 years in 2004 • Average age 2005 4.1 years • All double hull tankers • + a limited number of small tankers carrying products (some 20/year) Source: Riverlake

  23. Oversupply of ice-class?

  24. Ice Class • Number of Aframaxes available and needed for Primorsk trade (including 1A/1B/1C tankers) Number Source: Riverlake, Geneva 2003/04 addition 17 handysize tankers available 1C tankers may have problems in January/February

  25. Conclusion

  26. Conclusion • Slower expansion in FSU oil export, but • Most Russian oil goes to Europe • Pipelines will in medium to long term take market shares • Safety record very good, trade served by modern tonnage • Many projects – uncertainty with regard to technical, geological, commercial as well as political factors

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