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The Coming of the Euro

The Coming of the Euro. J. Bradford DeLong U.C. Berkeley and NBER http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/ delong@econ.berkeley.edu. A Tale of Two Continents. The unified United States A market of continental size Economies of scale and mass production

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The Coming of the Euro

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  1. The Coming of the Euro J. Bradford DeLong U.C. Berkeley and NBER http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/ delong@econ.berkeley.edu

  2. A Tale of Two Continents • The unified United States • A market of continental size • Economies of scale and mass production • The “furnace where the future is being forged” • Divided Europe • Fewer economies of scale • Slower productivity growth

  3. Is Monetary Unification Really Such a Big Deal? • Probably not • Other differences between the United States and Europe • But perhaps… • National champions within Europe • Political goals to be served by monetary union • The Treaty of Maastricht

  4. Will the Euro Survive? • What will inflation be? • Who gets to borrow? • “Regional” recessions • Labor-market flexibility • Migration • Political unrest

  5. What Happens to the Dollar? • The reserve currency • The hegemon • “Exorbitant privilege” • Why Larry Summers doesn’t (yet) worry that the United States is a debtor nation

  6. The First Year of the Euro • Steady erosion of value • Pan-European monetary policy • A long-run reserve currency role? • The dollar, the yen, and the euro

  7. The First Year of the Euro

  8. The Dollar and the Yen

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