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Development of Oil and Gas Emissions for the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)

Development of Oil and Gas Emissions for the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS). Amnon Bar-Ilan, John Grant and Ralph Morris ENVIRON International Corporation Zac Adelman University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill 3SAQS Workshop -- CSU Fort Collins, CO May 28, 2013. Purpose.

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Development of Oil and Gas Emissions for the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)

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  1. Development of Oil and Gas Emissions for the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Amnon Bar-Ilan, John Grant and Ralph Morris ENVIRON International Corporation Zac Adelman University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill 3SAQS Workshop -- CSU Fort Collins, CO May 28, 2013

  2. Purpose • To develop oil and gas emissions for the 2011 year and the WRAP Phase III Basins plus other areas in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming to support Photochemical Grid Model (PGM) modeling • To develop future year oil and gas emissions out to 2030 for PGM modeling • To improve oil and gas emissions for uncertain source categories • For example, fracing, completions and shale oil and gas • To improve oil and gas emissions for areas in CO, UT and WY outside of the WRAP Phase III Basins • For example, Paradox, Raton and Big Horn Basins

  3. 3SAQS Oil and Gas Emissions Approach • Near-Term – Develop 2011 and Future Year Oil and Gas (O&G) Emissions by Fall 2013 • Phase 1A: Estimate 2011 O&G Emissions Based on Readily Available Data (Sep 2013) • Phase 1B: Estimate Future Year 2012-2030 O&G Emissions Based on Readily Available Data (Nov 2013) • Longer-Term – Improve 2011 and Future Year O&G Emissions (Oct 2013 - Apr 2014) • Phase 2A: Surveys and Other O&G Inventory Refinements • Phase 2B: Refine 2011 O&G Emission Estimates • Phase 3: Refined Future Year 2012-2030 O&G Emissions and White Paper on Consideration for Improved FY Projections

  4. Phase 1A: 2011 O&G Emissions • Develop 2011 O&G emissions following Phase III methodology for: • D-J, Piceance, NSJ, Uinta, SWWY, PRB, Wind River Basins • Start with CO/UT/WY 2011 state data (“permitted”) • CO APENs data (includes Raton Basin except NM) • UT data unknown (includes Paradox Basin) • WY data reported complete (includes Big Horn Basin) • EPA data for Tribes (minor source reporting?) • Survey Based Sources starting with 2008 WestJump: • Develop 2008 to 2011 O&G activity scaling factors from IHS database: spuds, well count, gas, condensate and oil production • Controls analysis similar to WestJumpAQMS (“light”)

  5. Phase 1A: 2011 O&G Emissions (continued) • Colorado Phase III Basins (D-J, Piceance and NSJ) • Forecast survey-based categories from 2008 WestJump based on O&G growth with “light” controls analysis • Obtain 2011 APEN sources from CDPHE • Includes Raton Basin • Wyoming Phase III Basins (SWWY, Wind River and PRB) • Obtain 2011 O&G emissions from WDEQ that includes all sources • Includes Big Horn Basin

  6. Phase 1A: 2011 O&G Emissions (concluded) • Utah Phase III Basins (Uinta) • Obtain 2010 data from UT BLM Air Resource Management Strategy (ARMS) and evaluate data/surveys • Forecast survey-based categories from 2008 WJ • Obtain major and minor permitted source data from UDEQ and EPA (Tribal Data) (includes Paradox) • Develop SMOKE-ready O&G emission inputs • IDA files • Spatial surrogates • Speciation (existing Phase III based on 2006 surveys)

  7. Phase 1B: Estimate FY 2012-2030 O&G EI • Basin-level projections five surrogate parameters • Spuds, wells, oil, condensate and gas production • Develop three simple projection scenarios for each activity surrogate and Basin • Low Development: Continued decline to some “floor” level • High Development: Either continued growth or pick-up of growth following previous historic growth rate • Median Development: Either flat-lining or delayed growth after some number of years • Project cooperators will decide on which of the three scenarios to apply for each Basin for each parameter • Forecasts will be made for just one scenario

  8. Phase 1B: FY 2012-2030 O&G EI (concluded) • “Light” controls analysis like WestJump to account for changes in O&G emissions due to regulations • For example, State-specific regulations; EPA Subpart OOOO; EPA NSPS for spark-ignited engines; EPA off-road diesel Tier standards • SMOKE-ready inputs for one FY from 2012-2030

  9. Phase 1A and 1B Scope of Work Task 1 – IHS Database Analysis: Extract historical O&G production data from HIS database for all Basins Task 2 – Permit Data Analysis: Obtain and analyze permit data on O&G emissions from CO, WY and UT Task 3– Controls Analysis: Analyze 2011 controls on O&G sources Task 4 – Develop 2011 Emissions: Generate 2011 O&G emissions Task 5 – Emissions Processing: Generate SMOKE-ready 2011 O&G emissions Task 6– FY Projections: Develop FY growth for O&G activity Task 7– FY Controls Analysis: Develop control factors 2012-2030 Task 8:– FY Emissions Development: Develop 2012-2030 O&G emissions for one growth scenario Task 9 – FY Emissions Processing: Develop SMOKE-ready emissions for one FY from 2012-2030

  10. Phase 2A: Surveys and Inventory Refinements • Survey Methodology: • Surveys targeted for information for specific uncertain targeted source categories • Target a few large operators that dominate a Basin • Surveys may be equipment type and/or well type rather than Basin-specific • Survey to be populated with defaults prior to distribution • Operator outreach would be performed

  11. Phase 2A: Surveys/Refinements (continued) • Survey Targeted Source Categories: • Source categories not included in WRAP Phase III • For example, fracing/completion engines, produced water, compressor seals, etc. • Gas composition analysis • by well type, venting and flashing • Source categories with high degree of uncertainty • For example, well blowdowns, well workover rigs, initial well completions, etc.

  12. Phase 2A: Surveys/Refinements (concluded) • O&G Inventory Refinements: • Develop VOC speciation profiles for glycol dehydrators from state permit data (GLYCalc runs) • Obtain GLYCalc speciated output from state • Check availability of inventory data for pipelines currently missing in inventory • Optional Task: Develop survey-based Raton and Paradox Basin O&G emissions • Option 1: Survey for unpermitted sources • Option 2: No survey, analysis of existing data • Option 3: Use EPA default tool

  13. Phase 2B: Refined 2011 O&G Emissions • Incorporate information from Phase 2A into Phase 1A 2011 O&G emissions • Update Williston and Great Plains Basins with O&G emissions from BLM Montana/Dakotas study • Update O&G in Basins in Three-State area not included in WRAP Phase III study or Phase 1A 2011 O&G inventory • Raton and Paradox Basins

  14. Phase 3: Refined FY 2012-2030 O&G Projections • Develop White Paper on approaches for making refined FY projections to be worked out with Cooperators before implementing any refinements in the projections • Refine Phase 3 Technical Approach • Future year projections using refined 2011 O&G emission estimates developed in Phase 2B • Incorporate information from surveys including updates to Phase 1B control factors • Update targeted source categories and regions

  15. Phase 3: Refined FY Projections (concluded) • Refined O&G activity surrogate projections • By Basin by category unit-level • Incorporate data from BLM on resource availability • Review available BLM RFDs/AQTSDs on FY O&G • Review trends forecasts for five surrogates (IHS) • Review other available information on limits of production/wells/drilling • For example, reservoir capacity, regulations, etc. • Industry funded studies, states, USGS, etc. • For well count projections, same split as current well type • Develop growth rates for potential new plays • For example Niobrara (D-J) and Mancos (SSJ) Shale Oil

  16. Schedule for Task 2013-5 2011 & FY O&G EI Assumes a July 1, 2013 start date Phase 1A: 2011 O&G EI – Sep 2013 Phase 1B: 2012-2030 FY O&G EI – Nov 2013 Phase 2A: Surveys/Refinements – Dec 2013 Phase 2B: Refined 2011 O&G EI – Mar 2014 Phase 3: Refined 2012-2030 FY O&G EI – Apr 2014

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