“How to Solve Urban Transportation Problems Through Innovation”

1. “How to Solve Urban Transportation Problems Through Innovation” J. Edward Anderson, Ph.D., P. E. Managing Director PRT International, LLC Former Professor of Mechanical Engineering University of Minnesota & Boston University www.prtnz.com, advancedtransit.org

2. We call our solution to Urban Transportation Problems “An Intelligent Transportation Network System” “ITNS” generically it has been called Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)

4. Here is what I will discuss: • Urban Transportation problems • Approach to solution • The Design Process • Criteria for solution • How to meet the criteria • Some tradeoff issues and conclusions • Capacity and Control • Safety, Reliability, and Life-Cycle Cost • How the system is used • Significant activity around the world • Cost comparisons with conventional rail • Land savings • Energy savings • Benefits • Our next steps • Why is PRT being implemented first overseas?

5. Problems with Urban Transportation • The high and rising price of oil. • 2006: 4.9 each hour killed, 294 each hour injured, NHSB. • People who cannot or should not drive – lack of equity. • Excessive congestion. • Local, regional, international air pollution. Effects on the climate. • Excessive sprawl. • Road rage. • Large subsidies for transit. • 60% of transportation budget for 3% of trips

6. Approach to Solution: Be aware of prior work on old and new systems. Begin with no commitment to any existing transit system or to any particular technology. Determine to design a system that will address all of the problems listed.

7. Design Process • Study urban transportation as an interdisciplinary issue. • Identify the Problems. • Understand all factors that influence ridership. • Understand all factors that determine cost. • Engage in detailed site-specific planning studies. • Conduct courses in transport planning and technology. • Clarify concepts, give presentations, and receive feedback. • Conduct conferences, visit work of others. • Develop design criteria. • Identify technical issues. • Analyze and resolve technical issues. • Only now engage in detailed design. • Practice ”15Rules of Engineering Design,” www.prtnz.com.

8. Criteria for Design A better system must be • Time competitive with the auto • Operational with renewable energy sources • Low in energy use • Low in air and noise pollution • Safe, secure, reliable, and comfortable • Easy to use • Low in land and material use • Available at all times to everyone.

9. More Design Criteria • Adequate in capacity • Visually acceptable • All weather • Compliant with Americans with Disabilities Act • Expandable in area coverage • Operable at competitive speeds • Designed for minimum cost & maximum ridership • An unattractive target for terrorists.

10. Key Transit Concept: Cost per passenger-mile = Cost/year  Passenger-miles/year Problem: Develop system-significant equation for cost per passenger-mile to clarify the system characteristics that minimize it. “Optimization of Transit System Characteristics,” www.prtnz.com.

11. Conclusion: The characteristics of a system that minimize costalso maximize ridership and define the systemwenow call An Intelligent Transportation Network System (ITNS)

12. Guideway weight reduction 20:1 Large manually driven vehicles. Small fully automated vehicles!

14. Fleet Cost = Cost/Vehicle Capacity  People-Carrying Capacity Suppose 15 vehicles each averaging 10 mph provide a given people-carrying capacity. Then 6 vehicles averaging 25 mph provide same capacity.

15. The average speed is highest if there are no intermediate stops, which are not necessary if stops are off-line just like on a freeway. Conclusions: Guideway cost is minimized by using minimum weight vehicles. Vehicle fleet cost is minimized by using off-line stations. This combination makes a major breakthrough!

16. Off-Line Stations are The Key Breakthrough! Off-Line Stations are The Key Breakthrough! • Nonstop trips • High average speed • Minimum fleet size & cost • High throughput • Small vehicles • Small, low-cost guideway Now interesting things happen: • Vehicles run only on demand, not on a schedule • Service is always available, the wait is short to none • Close station spacing does not decrease average speed • Stations can be sized to demand • You ride with chosen companions or alone All lead to high ridership and low cost. Transit Systems Theory, www.advancedtransit.org

17. Consider 3 of 45 Tradeoff IssuesFor the whole list see http://faculty.washington.edu/jbs/itrans/

18. Issue: Suspension • Air cushion • Magnetic (maglev) • Sled runners • Wheels “Maglev vs. Wheeled PRT”, www.prtnz.com

19. Issue: Propulsion • Rotary motors • internal combustion, electric, steam • Air • Cables • Linear electric motors • induction (LIM), synchronous (LSM) • Issues: Guideway size & cost, control flexibility, maintenance. “Safe Design of PRT,” www.prtnz.com

20. Issue: Supported vs. Hanging Vehicles • Visual Impact • Cost of posts & Foundations • Natural Frequency • Ease of Switching • Rider Security • All-Weather Operation • Torsion in Curves “Supported vs. Hanging Vehicles”, www.prtnz.com

22. U-Frame • Vertical Chassis • Wheeled support

23. Covers shield from • Sun • EM Radiation • Winter night sky • Snow & ice • Covers • Minimize Air Drag • Permit maintenance • Permit appearance totto be customized “An Intelligent Transportation Network System,” www.prtnz.com

24. Shear Plate Battery VFD VFD LIM

25. The Guideway is a covered steel truss structure designed for 90-ft spans. The foundations, posts, and guideway can be installed in front of a store in a day or two.Businesses are not disrupted. See “Structural Properties of a PRT Guideway,” for calculations of stress, deflection, critical speed, the 32 design criteria, and how they are met.

26. This system won competitions in Chicago, SeaTac & Cincinnati www.skyloop.org • U-shaped door permits easy entry. • The vehicle interior is wide enough to permit wheelchair entry. • Back seat is therefore wide enough to accommodate three adults. • There is room for wheelchair + attendant, or bicycle, • or baby stroller, or luggage, and two fold-down seats in front.

27. Renewable Energy can be used! • Solar panels on the guideway covers can produce 400 kW per mile. • During the peak period the system needs 200 kW per mile. • Excess solar or wind energy can be stored in • Batteries • Compressed air • Flywheels • Hydrogen • Pump-storage

28. Conventional vs. ITNS

29. A settlement 20 km west of Stockholm, Sweden.

30. How do we keep vehicles from crashing? ”PRT Control,” “Longitudinal Control of a Vehicle,” “Failure Modes and Effects Analysis,” www.prtnz.com Computers routinely land airplanes on aircraft-carrier decks. Our computers respond to and correct speed and position two hundred times per second. Instruments used today to measure position and speed are much more accurate than we need. Wayside zone controllers monitor vehicle motion. Code has been developed to control any number of vehicles in networks of any size or configuration. “Some History of PRT Simulation Programs” www.prtnz.com “Simulation of the Operation of PRT Systems,” www.prtnz.com

31. High Capacity with Small Vehicles? Surface-level rail: 6 min between trains in rush period At capacity: 400 people per train or 400×10 = 4000 people per hour ITNS: 2 sec average between cars in rush period At capacity: 3 people per car or 3×1800 = 5,400 people per hour ITNS capacity/Rail capacity = 5,400/4000 = 1.35:1 The common belief that small vehicles mean small capacity is a myth! “PRT: Matching Capacity to Demand,” www.prtnz.com “The Capacity of High-Capacity PRT Systems”, www.prtnz.com.

32. In 1973 the UMTA (now FTA) Administrator Frank Herringer told a Congressional Committee:“High-Capacity PRT can carry as many people as rapid rail for a quarter the cost.” The page of the Congressional Record that contains this statement is reproduced on page 11 of the paper “Intelligent Transportation Network System,” which can be downloaded from www.prtnz.com.

33. Experimental Proof!

36. System Reliability & Safety ”Safe Design of PRT System,”“Failure Modes & Effects Analysis,” www.prtnz.com Vehicle has few moving parts. Switch has no moving track parts. Motors have no moving parts. Motors, sensors, and power supply are redundant. The computers are Dual Redundant. Fault-tolerant hardware and software. We use an exclusive guideway. Result: Chance of injury is close to zero!

37. Measure and Calculate System Dependability “Dependability as a Measure of On-Time Performance of PRT Systems,” www.prtnz.com Dependability = (1 - Person-Hours of Delay due to Failures  Person-Hours of Operation)×100 Calculations show > 99.97% independent of system size! The method permits Dependability to be both calculated in advance and measured in real time as a basis for contract specification.

38. Problem: Find MTBF of each Component that Minimizes System Life Cycle Cost subject to given Dependability. Solution: Lagrangian constrained minimization problem solved in paper "Life-Cycle Costs and Reliability Allocation in Automated Transit,“ www.prtnz.com

39. Using the New System

40. Buy a Prepaid Card.Find destination number from Information Kiosk.

41. Accessible to wheelchair

42. Ride nonstop to destination!

43. Personal Security is Excellent The stations are well lit. There is no waiting during off-peak hours. The stations are monitored by closed-circuit video. The stations & vehicles have two-way communications with central control. The stations use motion sensors to detect loiterers. The ride is private.

44. Significant Recent PRT Activity following Chicago City of SeaTac, Washington – 1990’s Series of studies in Sweden – 1990’s European Union: “PRT contributes significantly to transport policy and all related policy objectives. “ 2006 Report. www.advancedtransit.org BAA - Heathrow International Airport To be operating in spring 2009! Posco Vectus test in Uppsala, Sweden Santa Cruz, California State of New Jersey PRT Study released in April 2007 www.advancedtransit.org, www.prtnz.com MASDAR, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

45. ULTra Bristol University, UK www.atsltd.co.uk Heathrow

46. Vectus PRT by Posco, South Korea Vectus Posco Steel Co. www.vectusprt.com Uppsala

47. Cost Comparisons

48. A transit mode first introduced in 1888. “Light” rail tranit

49. Minneapolis Rail Cost and Trip DataData source: www.metrotransit.org • Annualize capital cost: • 7% of $715,300,000 = $50,070,000 • Annual operating cost: $19,850,000 • Total annual cost: $69,920,000 • Annual number of trips: 7,267,000 • Break-even fare = $69,920,000/7,267,000 = $9.62 • Average fare = $0.99 • Subsidy per trip = $8.63 • Fares cover 10.3% of the total costs. See also www.archive.org