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You Make the Call!

You Make the Call!. SAWS Workshop Phoenix AZ April 10-11, 2007. Presentation Overview. Exercise Goal: promote awareness of communication effectiveness (not intended to be an in-depth case study).

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You Make the Call!

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  1. You Make the Call! SAWS Workshop Phoenix AZ April 10-11, 2007

  2. Presentation Overview • Exercise Goal: promote awareness of communication effectiveness (not intended to be an in-depth case study). • Point #1: Distractions abound; never assume important, but seemingly obvious, points are understood by customers. It’s possible that crucial meteorology forecasts cannot be communicated enough. • Point #2: Many different ways to get the message across--be sure to use the common ones as effectively as possible when addressing hazardous weather.

  3. Case Overview • PHX receives about one “fog day” per year on average. • PHX 5th busiest airport in the nation, negative impact on NAS is significant. • December 22, 2006 afternoon analysis - strong low pressure located over Great Lakes, affecting the entire Northeast U.S., with an upper low sweeping across the Southeast U.S.

  4. SW Trof cuts off and dives Southeast (12/22 12Z – 12/23 18Z)

  5. Great Lakes Low/SW Trof – 06Z 12/23

  6. December 22, 2006 – 2200Z

  7. December 22, 2006 – 2200Z

  8. December 22, 2006 – PHX • 1751Z 15007KT 10SM FEW080 SCT110 BKN160 BKN200 10/-04 A3002 • 1851Z VRB03KT 10SM -RA BKN060 OVC085 09/-03 A3001 RAB44 P0000 • 1951Z 28008KT 8SM -RA SCT045 OVC060 08/01 A3000 P0001 • 2051Z 31011KT 9SM -RA OVC060 08/01 A3001 RAE18B51 P0000 60001 • 2151Z 30005KT 8SM -RA SCT038 OVC050 07/03 A3001 P0004 • 2251Z 00000KT 7SM RA BKN045 OVC055 07/04 A3001 P0006 • 2351Z 18004KT 7SM -RA BKN039 OVC049 07/06 A3003 P0011 60022 • 0051Z 14004KT 8SM FEW049 BKN060 BKN070 OVC130 07/06 A3005 RAE43 P0004 • 0151Z 18006KT 10SM BKN070 OVC130 07/05 A3008 60004

  9. December 23, 2006 - PHX • 0051Z 14004KT 8SM FEW049 BKN060 BKN070 OVC130 07/06 A3005 RAE43 P0004 • 0151Z 18006KT 10SM BKN070 OVC130 07/05 A3008 60004 • 0251Z 32006KT 10SM SCT060 BKN130 07/04 A3010 60004 • 0351Z 22003KT 10SM FEW060 SCT200 05/04 A3010 • 0451Z 22003KT 10SM FEW060 SCT200 05/04 A3010

  10. GFS Forecast Soundings (12/23 00Z – 12Z)

  11. GFS MOS 12/23 00Z KPHX GFS MOS GUIDANCE 12/23/2006 0000 UTC DT /DEC 23 /DEC 24 /DEC 25 / HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 X/N 61 40 66 41 68 TMP 43 41 40 39 51 58 60 52 47 43 42 41 55 63 64 56 50 46 44 57 67 DPT 39 38 37 36 32 30 28 33 34 34 33 31 28 24 23 27 29 29 27 21 16 CLD OV CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL FW FW FW FW FW FW CL SC FW CL WDR 09 03 06 09 04 32 25 25 09 10 09 12 10 29 28 25 08 10 11 08 21 WSP 06 06 04 03 05 04 04 02 02 03 04 03 02 05 05 02 03 03 02 04 04 P06 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 P12 3 1 2 0 1 Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 0 0 0 0 0 T06 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 1 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 2 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 T12 0/ 0 0/ 1 0/ 0 0/ 2 0/ 0 POZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POS 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 1 3 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 1 4 6 0 0 TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R SNW 0 0 CIG 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

  12. Make the Call: Construct your 06Z TAF package 1st & 2ND 6-hour periods: 11:00 PM – 11:00 AM KPHX 230540Z 230606 VRB05KT P6SM SCT060 BKN130 FM0800 ???

  13. December 23, 2006 - PHX • 0551Z 32006KT 10SM SCT060 BKN130 07/04 A3010 60004 • 0651Z 22003KT 10SM FEW060 SCT200 05/04 A3010 • 0751Z 21003KT 5SM BR FEW060 SCT200 05/04 A3011 • 0851Z 00000KT 5SM BR SCT250 04/04 A3012 • 0951Z 08006KT 5SM BR FEW250 04/04 A3011 • 1051Z 24003KT 7SM FEW250 04/04 A3010

  14. How did you do? Something like this would’ve verified well and communicated the hazard clearly: KPHX 230540 230606 27005KT P6SM SCT060 BKN130 FM0800 VRB05KT 5SM BR SCT250 FM1200 …

  15. 0830Z–1100Z 11-3.9 micron IR

  16. Make the Call: Construct your 12Z TAF package 1st & 2ND 6-hour periods: 5:00 AM – 5:00 PM

  17. December 23, 2006 • 1151Z 24003KT 6SM BR FEW250 04/03 A3012 70026 • 1225Z 24004KT 2 1/2SM R07L/1200V1400FT BR BKN130 03/02 A3015 • 1233Z 23003KT 1 3/4SM R07L/1200V1400FT BR BKN130 02/02 A3014 • 1246Z 22003KT 1/4SM R07L/1000V1200FT FG BKN009 02/02 A3015 • 1300Z 22004KT 0SM R07L/1000V1600FT FG VV000 02/02 A3016

  18. December 23, 2006 - PHX • 1341Z 00000KT 1/8SM R07L/1400VP6000FT FG VV001 02/01 A3017 • 1357Z 09004KT 1/16SM R07L/2000VP6000FT FG VV001 02/02 A3018 • 1414Z 07006KT 1/2SM R07L/2200VP6000FT FG BKN002 OVC007 02/02 A3018 • 1425Z 08006KT 3SM R07L/3000VP6000FT BR FEW007 SCT020 SCT130 02/02 A3018 • 1434Z 07006KT 5SM BR FEW015 SCT025 SCT250 03/02 A3018 FG BANKS ALQDS • 1451Z 00000KT 8SM FEW015 SCT250 03/03 A3019 FG BANKS ALQDS

  19. 1500Z–1900Z Visible Imagery

  20. December 23, 2006 - PHX • 1551Z 10005KT 8SM VCFG FEW006 03/03 A3022 VIS SE 2 FG BANK SE-S T00330033 • 1620Z 12006KT 4SM R07L/2200VP6000FT BR BKN001 03/03 A3023 VIS SE-S 1/4 PRFG E-S FG SCT000 • 1625Z 12006KT 2 1/2SM R07L/2200V3500FT BR BKN001 03/03 A3024 VIS E-S 1/16 PRFG NE-S FG BKN001 • 1648Z 11007KT 1SM R07L/2200V3500FT BR BKN001 03/03 A3024 BR ALQDS FG BKN001 • 1728Z 10005KT 3SM BR SCT001 04/04 A3025 BR ALQDS FG SCT001 CIG SCT001 V BKN • 1738Z 08005KT 6SM VCFG FEW004 04/04 A3025 VIS SE 2 PRFG SE-S • 1851Z 10006KT 8SM FEW005 BKN250 08/05 A3024 SLP240 FG BANK DSNT SE-S T00780050 • 2051Z 08006KT 10SM FEW200 BKN250 11/05 A3020 HZ ALQDS T01060050 58020

  21. Hindsight TAF TAF KPHX 231120Z 231212 22003KT 2SM BR BKN130 FM1300 22003KT 0SM FG VV000 FM1500 08006KT 5SM BR FEW010 SCT025 TEMPO 1617 1SM BR BKN001 FM1800 09006KT P6SM BKN250=

  22. Key Impacts • East Coast traffic already airborne before ZAB ARTCC TMU personnel arrived • ZAB diverted 23 aircraft to alternate airports (Cost per diversion to airline: narrow-body ~ $22K - $29K, wide-body ~ $89K - $182K1) • 68 local departure delays (PHX ATCT) 1 “Improving Airline Profitability Through Better Estimated Times of Arrival and Terminal Area Flight Information: a Benefit Analysis of PASSUR” (http://www.passur.com/pst/report_findings01.htm)

  23. Repeat performance, 12/24?? • 2151Z 11003KT 10SM FEW200 SCT250 12/04 A3019 HZ ALQDS • 2251Z 12004KT 10SM FEW250 13/04 A3020 HZ ALQDS • 2351Z 00000KT 10SM FEW250 14/04 A3019 • 0051Z 09003KT 10SM FEW250 12/05 A3021 • 0151Z 11003KT 10SM SCT250 11/05 A3021 • 0251Z 10004KT 10SM SCT250 10/05 A3022 • 0351Z 10006KT 10SM FEW250 09/05 A3022 • 0451Z 09006KT 9SM FEW250 08/05 A3024 • 0551Z 09007KT 7SM FEW250 07/05 A3024 • 0651Z 11008KT 8SM FEW250 07/05 A3024

  24. 12/23 12Z GFS 12-24 hr. Forecast

  25. Morning of 12/24 • 0751Z 09006KT 8SM FEW250 07/04 A3022 • 0851Z 10003KT 8SM FEW250 06/04 A3024 • 0951Z 09006KT 8SM FEW250 06/04 A3025 • 1051Z 11003KT 8SM FEW250 05/03 A3025

  26. AFD Aviation Section: What Will Happen? Why? NAS Customer Considerations: What Should You Emphasize?

  27. (EXTRACTED FROM FXUS65 KPSR 240355) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 355 AM MST SUN DEC 24 2007 …NO FOG EVENT EXPECTED THIS MORNING… DRY AIR IS SPREADING OVER AZ FROM THE NORTH AND WILL DISCOURAGE THE FORMATION OF FOG THIS MORNING. PATCHES OF LIGHT GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE PHX METRO AREA BEFORE 10 AM…BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN BETTER THAN 3SM AT PHOENIX-SKY HARBOR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND OTHER LOCAL AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LOW CIGS/HZ ARE NOT EXPECTED AND SLANT-WISE VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED FOR VISUAL FLIGHT APPROACHES. SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. (http://aviationweather.gov/testbed/afd/)

  28. Sky Harbor KPHX 12/24 • 1151Z 15003KT 8SM FEW250 05/03 A3024 • 1251Z 10005KT 8SM FEW250 04/03 A3024 • 1351Z 07007KT 10SM FEW200 04/02 A3026 • 1451Z 10004KT 10SM FEW200 SCT250 04/02 A3027 • 1551Z 08004KT 10SM FEW200 SCT250 05/02 A3029 • 1651Z 00000KT 8SM FEW200 BKN250 07/03 A3030 • 1751Z 10004KT 10SM FEW200 BKN250 10/03 A3031 • 1851Z 00000KT 10SM FEW200 SCT250 12/03 A3029

  29. Other Locations • KIWA (Chandler-Williams Apt.) – 5SM at midnight, but no vis restriction below 7SM after 1 am MST. • KDVT (Deer Valley Municipal) – 5SM at midnight, but no vis restriction blw 7SM after 1 am MST.

  30. Learning Points • Distractions abound--never assume important, but seemingly obvious, points are understood. Crucial meteorology forecasts may never be communicated enough. • Many different ways to get the message across; be sure to use the common ones as effectively as possible when addressing hazardous weather.

  31. Questions? Comments? matthew.lorentson@noaa.gov

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