State Characteristics: Domestic Migration - Overview

1. State Characteristics:Domestic Migration - Overview • State domestic out-migration* • State domestic in-migration* • State domestic migration flows*

2. State Characteristics:State Domestic Out-migration • Calculate a set of state out migration rates • Out-migration rate = # of exemptions leaving the state(tally?) / # of exemptions in the state (tally?) • If there are less than 30 exemptions for an ASRH combination, additional ages are included until the threshold of 30 exemptions is met • Expand to full ASRO distribution • Each ASRO cell within a collapsed category is assigned the rate of the category as a whole • Smooth the out-migration rates by age and perform final adjustment

3. State Characteristics:State Domestic In-migration • Calculate a set of state-to-state out-migration rates for each state • Out-migration rate = # of exemptions in state 1 in Y1 that were in state 2 at Y2 (tally?)/ total # of exemptions in state 1 at Y1 (tally?) • If there are less than 30 exemptions for an ASRH combination, additional ages are included until the threshold of 30 exemptions is met

4. State Characteristics:State Domestic In-migration (cont.) • Calculate a set of state-specific out-migrants for each state by IRS characteristics • Out-migrants = Out-migration rate for State 1-State 2 pair * state population for State 1 from previous vintage • Calculate state in-migrants • State in-migrants = Σ(state out migrants from each other state to destination state)

5. State Characteristics:State Domestic In-migration (cont.) • Sum all state in-migrant estimates • Calculate each state’s in-migration proportion of the all-state sum [#3] • State in-migration proportion = preliminary state in-migrants / Σ(preliminary state in-migrants) • Expand to full ASRO distribution • Each ASRO cell within a collapsed category is assigned the rate of the category as a whole • Smooth the in-migration proportions by age and perform final adjustment

6. State Characteristics:State Domestic Migration Flows • Calculate final estimates of out- and in-migrants by state (in the process of estimating the population) • State out-migrants = state out-migration rate * state population at the beginning of the time interval • State in-migrants = state in-proportion * ∑(state out-migrants)

7. State Characteristics:Summary • Calculate preliminary population estimates • Produce July 1, 2000 beginning population • Add births, subtract deaths, add net international migration, and add military movement • Add domestic in-migration and subtract domestic out-migration • Calculate proportions • Use proportions to distribute estimates • National ASRO • State age-sex

8. County Characteristics:Domestic Migration - Overview • County interstate migration* • State interstate out- and in-migration • County interstate out-migration • County interstate in-migration • County intrastate migration* • State intrastate migration • County intrastate out-migration • County intrastate in-migration * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

9. County Characteristics:State Interstate Out- and In-migration • Recalculate state-level in- and out-migrants using final out-rates and in-proportions from State Characteristics Estimates processing • State out-migrants = state out-migration rate * state population at the beginning of the time interval • State in-migrants = state in-proportion * ∑(state out-migrants)

10. County Characteristics:County Interstate Out-migration • Calculate county proportions of state interstate out-migration • Out-migration prop. = ∑(tally ?) / tally ? • By race-origin categories in IRS exemption data • No age or sex detail • Calculate final county interstate outs by multiplying proportions by state interstate out-migration data

11. County Characteristics:County Interstate In-migration • Calculate county proportions of state interstate in-migration • In-migration prop. = ∑(tally ?) / tally ? • By race-origin categories in IRS exemption data • No age or sex detail • Calculate final county interstate ins by multiplying proportions by state interstate in-migration data

12. County Characteristics:State Intrastate Migration • Calculate a set of state intrastate migration rates • Intrastate-migration rate = # of exemptions moving from one county to another (tally?)/ # of exemptions in the state (tally?) • If there are less than 30 exemptions for an ASRH combination, additional ages are included until the threshold of 30 exemptions is met

13. County Characteristics:State Intrastate Migration (cont.) • Expand to full ASRO distribution • Each ASRO cell within a collapsed category is assigned the rate of the category as a whole • Note: No age-smoothing • Calculate state intrastate migrants by ASRO • State intrastate migrants = state intrastate-migration rate * state population at the beginning of the time interval (previous vintage) • Note: Intrastate Outs = Intrastate Ins

14. County Characteristics:County Intrastate Out-migration • Calculate county proportions of intrastate out-migration • Out-migration prop. = ∑(tally ?) / tally ? • By race-origin categories in IRS exemption data • No age or sex detail • Calculate final county intrastate outs by multiplying proportions by state intrastate migration data

15. County Characteristics:County Intrastate In-migration • Calculate county proportions of intrastate in-migration • In-migration prop. = ∑(tally ?) / tally ? • By race-origin categories in IRS exemption data • No age or sex detail • Calculate final county intrastate ins by multiplying proportions by state intrastate migration data