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Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Potential Forecast (Jan. 8-9)

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16 diapositives · 300 Views · Oct 13, 2014

Significant rainfall is expected across the Coast Range, Cascades, and valleys of Southwest Washington and Northwest Oregon from January 8 to January 9, 2023. Forecasts indicate 1 to 3 inches of rain in lower elevations and 4 to 6 inches in higher elevations. Major flooding is possible on several rivers, especially in the Portland Metro area and surrounding valleys. Winds may gust up to 65 mph, compounding the impact of heavy rainfall. Prepare for potential flooding and monitor updates for river forecasts.

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  1. NWS Briefing on Heavy Rainfall & Flooding Potential (Jan 8-9) January 5, 2008 weather.gov/portland

  2. Satellite Imagery Tues Wed

  3. Precipitable Water Imagery Green: 2 plus inches of precipitable water Purple: 1.5 inches of precipitable water

  4. Weather Graphics • Weather graphics at: - weather.gov/portland/emb.php

  5. River Forecasts

  6. Snowpack Snow-WaterContent Coast Range250 – 500%of normal Cascades125 – 300%of normal weather.gov/portland

  7. Snowpack Southwest Washington Pepper Creek SNOTEL Elevation: 2140’ Snow-Water: 15.5” Snow-Depth: 51.6” Sheep Canyon SNOTEL Elevation: 4030’ Snow-Water: 23.3” Snow-Depth: 82.8” Northwest Oregon Saddle Mountain SNOTEL Elevation: 3110’ Snow-Water: 20.2” Snow-Depth: 54.2” S Fork Bull Run SNOTEL Elevation: 2690’ Snow-Water: 14.0” Snow-Depth: 37.8” Seine Creek SNOTELOT Elevation: 2060’ Snow-Water 4.8” Snow-Depth 12.9” Jumpoff Joe SNOTELOT Elevation: 3520’ Snow-Water 10.5” Snow-Depth 34.6”

  8. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast 4 am TUE – 4 am WED 4 am WED – 4 am THU 1 – 3 inches Coast Range & Cascades 4 – 6 inches Coast Range & Cascades

  9. Coast Rivers Coast Rivers (Major Flooding Possible) Willapa, Naselle, and Grays in SW Washington Nehalem, Wilson, and Trask in NW Oregon weather.gov/portland

  10. SW Washington Interior Highest Stages since 1996 possible on the lower Cowlitz River weather.gov/portland

  11. Portland Metro &Willamette Valley Significant Flooding possible on all creeks and smaller rivers, including: Johnson CreekClackamas RiverSandy RiverTualatin RiverMolalla RiverPudding RiverSouth Yamhill RLuckiamute R weather.gov/portland

  12. Mainstem Willamette Between Bankfull and Flood Stageat several locations weather.gov/portland

  13. Summary • Coast/Coast Range/Willapa Hills: • Wind (Tues pm – Thurs am) • 35 mph gusts to 65 mph • Heavy rain (heaviest Tillamook County northward) • Tues night through Thursday midday • Tues night: 0.5 – 1.5 inches • Wed/Thurs: 4 - 8 inches • Freezing Levels: 8,000 – 9,000 feet • Temperature: (Tues-Thurs) • Lows: low to mid 40s • Highs: upper 40s to low 50s

  14. Summary • Valleys/Gorge/Lwr Columbia/Cowlitz County: • Heavy rain (heaviest Marion county northward) • Tues night through Thursday midday • Tues night: 0.25 – 1.0 inches • Wed/Thurs: 2 - 5 inches • Heaviest precipitation southwest WA • Freezing Levels: 8,000 – 9,000 feet • Temperature: (Tues-Thurs) • Lows: low to mid 40s • Highs: upper 40s to near 50

  15. Summary • Foothills/Cascades: • Heavy rain (heaviest Linn county northward) • Tues night through Thursday midday • Tues night: 0.25 – 1.0 inches • Wed/Thurs: 3 - 7 inches • Heaviest rainfall in southwest WA foothills • Freezing Levels: 8,000 – 9,000 feet • Temperature: (Tues-Thurs) • Lows: mid 30s to near 40 • Highs: 40s

  16. Questions? Graphics available at: http://weather.gov/portland/emb.php Presentations slideshow will be emailed to you shortly. weather.gov/portland