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Long-Term Precipitation Trends and Forecasting Models for Hungary's Southeastern Region

This document discusses annual precipitation trends in Southeastern Hungary, analyzing long-term data and the tendency of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in the southern part of Hungary. It includes insights into apple ripening models and the effects of root depth on available water resources. Additionally, it addresses probabilistic forecasting methods, including the evaluation of forecast accuracy and user needs. The document emphasizes the importance of continuous adaptation of forecasts using the latest climate data, ultimately aiming to provide valuable climatic information to users.

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Long-Term Precipitation Trends and Forecasting Models for Hungary's Southeastern Region

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  1. Meteorological stations within the system

  2. Annual precipitation sum

  3. Long time series of annual precipitation sum in SE of Hungary

  4. Tendency of the PDSI on the South part of Hungary

  5. Apple model (early ripen)

  6. Apple model (late ripen)

  7. Model of stone fruits

  8. Root depth and available water (1)

  9. Root depth and available water (2)

  10. Influence of cultivation and irrigation method

  11. Address • //kanna1.met.hu

  12. First page

  13. Catégories Forecast Probabilistic Forecast

  14. Catégories Forecast • How to define the categories? • Number • Categories Limits • Needs of user? • How to evaluate the forecasted probabilities for each category? • Frequency/Probability , Climatological Probabilities, Conditionnal probabilities, Confidence Indice • Statistical Models • Numerical Models • How to transform the forecast in « readable and comprehensive » form for the user?

  15. Seasonnal Forecasting Process in Africa - RCOF (1) • Dissemination • Dissemination of products by the NMHS, and interpretation to the benefit of users including national adaptation of regional products. • Update of the forecasts (Monthly base) : • Continuous adaptation of the forecasts to the last available information on the climate system and its evolutions (notably update of the SST). • Evaluation of Forecasts : • Quality of rainfall forecasts (technical evaluation) and use of the Forecasts (Users’ point of view evaluation – interest and value).

  16. Predictability • Actors and Associated Scales

  17. Thank you for your attention

  18. ! www.cred.be

  19. The informatical system of HMS

  20. www.knmi.nl/samenw/eca/

  21. www.knmi.nl/samenw/eca/

  22. www.knmi.nl/samenw/eca/

  23. www.knmi.nl/samenw/eca/

  24. www.knmi.nl/samenw/eca/

  25. www.knmi.nl/samenw/eca/

  26. Caribbean workshop, Jamaica 2001 (Peterson et al., 2002, JGR)

  27. Long time series of annual precipitation sum in SE of Hungary

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