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The 2003 Wake-up Call: Predictable?

O 3 > 100 ppb on 6 consecutive days. Estimated up to 700 extra deaths attributable to air pollution (O 3 and PM10) in UK during this period. 2pm, 6 th Aug, 2003. “Normal” airmass flow. 1400. 40. 35. 1200. Isoprene (ppt). 30. Temperature (C). 1000. 25. 800. 20. 600. 15.

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The 2003 Wake-up Call: Predictable?

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  1. O3 > 100 ppb on 6 consecutive days Estimated up to 700 extra deaths attributable to air pollution (O3 and PM10) in UK during this period 2pm, 6th Aug, 2003 “Normal” airmass flow 1400 40 35 1200 Isoprene (ppt) 30 Temperature (C) 1000 25 800 20 600 15 Stagnant airmass flow 400 10 200 5 0 0 4-Aug 2-Aug 6-Aug 8-Aug 27-Jul 29-Jul 31-Jul 12-Aug 16-Aug 10-Aug 14-Aug 18-Aug 20-Aug 22-Aug 24-Aug 26-Aug 28-Aug 30-Aug Compiled from UK ozone network data The 2003 Wake-up Call: Predictable? Isoprene c/o Ally Lewis Thanks to M Pilling, T Kurosu, K Chance, R Martin, R Sokhi, A Lewis

  2. NAEI NOX emissions as NO2, 2002 Edinburgh, 56N Length of day [hours] Cloud cover [%], ISCCP August 83-04 Denver, 40N Day of Year 70 100 30 Resolution of new satellite data allows study UK AQ from space GOME NO2 @ 1x1o Data from OMI even better (not shown) SCIA NO2 @ 0.4x0.4o, Aug 2004 Aug 1997 GOME and SCIA NO2 c/o R. Martin Challenges...

  3. “Expect harmful levels of ozone and PM2.5 over the next couple of days; please keep small children and animals inside. Transatlantic pollution represents 20% of today’s UK surface ozone.” 2010 General public only interested in pollution levels at 1.8m above surface • Numerical Chemical Weather Prediction (NCWP): PM, O3, NOx • Guiding AQ and Climate Policy: PM, O3, NOx? • Some addtn science: surface fluxes, aerosol-chemistry processes, dynamics Currently no strong commitment to PM2.5(!) (Current instruments probably not accurate enough to monitor AQ standards)

  4. Relating HCHO to BVOC emissions VOC hours hours HCHO h, OH OH BVOC fluxes for a “hot, sunny” day Monoterpenes OMI HCHO 2 1016 [molec cm-2] <0.3 Isoprene Stewart et al, 2003 BOE: 0.5-1 ppb isoprene = 1-5x1012 molec cm-2 s-1 (cf. SE USA 5-7x1012 molec cm-2 s-1) The increasing role of BVOCs: constraints from OMI HCHO? Data c/o T. Kurosu NO + RO2 NO2 + RO, Aug 2003 Isoprene HCHO c/o Jenny Stanton NO2 production ppb h-1

  5. MISRSurface PM2.5 = ModelSurface [PM2.5] x MISR AOT Model AOT UK PM: primary and secondary sources 2003 roadside PM10 • Unclear what PM characteristics affect health • Secondary PM is formed from: • Oxidation of organic compounds • Oxidation of SO2 • Difficult to estimate in inventories – need models and data • Liu et al MISR work relevant? • Assume dominant aerosol type in column • Also strong regional contributions to PM: • Saharan desert dust • Sea salt aerosol • Secondary organic PM More formal (general) model/data melding probably necessary

  6. 2) Unified heterogeneous chemistry scheme 1) UM mesoscale CTM AQ-climate links UKMO Unified Model Chem-Clim Model AQ Model Current Development in Modelling UK AQ • UK currently using MODELS 3 (MM5 + CMAQ) for AQ Global vs urban chemistry? Subgrid scale processes? • Similar equations for data assimilation and inverse modelling • J(x) = ½(yo – H(x))T(E+F)-1(yo-H(x)) +½(x-xb)TB-1(x-xb) • Multi-species analyses – inter-species error covariance? • Radiance versus retrieved products? • Limit of linearization of non-linear oxidant chemistry? Final Thoughts...

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