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Integrating Climate and Soil Science: Opportunities in Drought Monitoring and Preparedness

Integrating Climate and Soil Science: Opportunities in Drought Monitoring and Preparedness. Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Environmental Science The University of Arizona. Presentation Overview.

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Integrating Climate and Soil Science: Opportunities in Drought Monitoring and Preparedness

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  1. Integrating Climate and Soil Science: Opportunities in Drought Monitoring and Preparedness Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Environmental Science The University of Arizona

  2. Presentation Overview • Applied soil and climate science: Soil Moisture and Drought • National Integrated Drought Information System • Examples of soil moisture monitoring and modeling products • Opportunities for collaboration

  3. Climate Science Extension • Develop extension programs and conduct applied research that address climate related issues of importance to Arizona and the desert Southwest • Work with stakeholders and natural and social scientists on program development • Facilitate partnerships between Arizona Cooperative Extension, University research community, and NOAA • Extension and research focus on supporting natural resource management through applied climate science • Wildfire management • Ecosystem processes and climate impacts • Water resources • Drought monitoring and preparedness • 70% Extension/30% Research

  4. Operational Drought Definitions • Meteorological: below-avg precip • Agricultural: insufficient soil moisture • Hydrological: impacts on water resources • Socio-economic: impacts on people and social systems http://drought.unl.edu/whatis/concept.htm

  5. Applied soil and climate science  Drought • Multi-agency national effort to coordinate drought monitoring and planning (NIDIS) • Soil moisture monitoring has been identified as a high priority need • NOAA has recognized importance of soil moisture as NIDIS lead agency

  6. National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) “A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.” - Western Governors’ Association, June 2004 http://www.westgov.org/wga/initiatives/drought/

  7. Current Operational Soil Moisture Monitoring/Modeling Efforts

  8. Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/scan/

  9. Subjective Field Observations http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/monitoring_and_data/topsoil.shtml

  10. NOAA-CPC Soil Moisture • Simple 1-layer hydrological model (van den Dool et al., 2003) • Tuned to runoff from several basins in OK (max water holding capacity: 760mm) • Model parameters are constant across US • Used extensively in precip and temp forecasts http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/

  11. Experimental Surface Water Monitor • Produced daily by University of Washington (Wood 2008) • VIC Macroscale Hydrologic Model, 0.25 degree grid • Soil properties (e.g. texture) from CONUS-SOIL (derived from STATSGO, Miller and White 1998) • Daily soil moisture percentiles calculated from retrospective analysis (1915-present) http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/index.shtml

  12. NOAA Experimental Soil Moisture Product • NOAA-NWS Colorado River Basin Forecast Center • National Weather Service Hydrology Lab Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) • Sacramento Heat Transfer Model (SAC-HT)/SAC-SMA Module • 4km grid cell based on precipitation estimates (multisensor precipitation product) http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/soil2/soil2.cgi

  13. VegDRI • Vegetation condition through near-real time remote sensing (NDVI) • Climate-vegetation index response conditioned on biophysical parameters (including available water content-STATSGO) http://drought.unl.edu/vegdri/VegDRI_Main.htm

  14. Palmer Drought Severity Index • Water balance equation based on precipitation and temperature • Calculated on climate division spatial scale • Very widely used across the U.S. • Especially sensitive to soil type through available water content; coarse soil parameterization in large divisions • Limited accounting of vertical soil water movement and runoff http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

  15. Applying PDSI in Climate Change Projections Hoerling & Eischeid 2007

  16. Standardize Precipitation Index • Precipitation based drought index • Standard deviation of total precipitation in different temporal windows • Represents short to long-term drought conditions at increasing window length • How does it compare to actual soil water movement/hydrological processes drought impacts? http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/prelim/drought/spi.html

  17. Shortcomings of current drought monitoring approaches • Sparse operational real-time soil moisture monitoring networks  ‘real’ data • Modeling products provide coarse spatial estimation of soil moisture  problem of over-interpretation • Difficult to determine which product is ‘better’ for different applications • Soils data are coarse and probably not well integrated into modeling approaches and monitoring interpretation  Is STATSGO good enough for these applications? What are we missing?

  18. Opportunities for collaboration: Climate and Soil Science • Better mapping of soil types and hydraulic properties  better soil moisture monitoring and modeling? Better drought monitoring tools?

  19. Opportunities for collaboration: Climate and Soil Science • Guidance in developing new monitoring networks (monitoring methods, equipment, siting, data collection, visualization, and interpretation) ?

  20. Opportunities for collaboration: Climate and Soil Science • Evaluating interactions between precipitation variability, soil properties and resultant soil moisture regimes • Interpreting soil moisture variability with respect to land management decision making and drought impacts Rasmussen, Crimmins, Schaap, & van Leeuwen 2008

  21. Opportunities for collaboration: Climate and Soil Science • Establishing role of soils in ecosystem sensitivity to climate change IPCC 2007 Weltzin et al. 2004

  22. Dev=2003-1989 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2005

  23. Summary • National-level focus on improving drought monitoring and preparedness • Improved soil moisture monitoring and modeling is high priority within NOAA/NIDIS • Emerging need for guidance in interpretation of soil moisture data • Supports growing efforts for climate change adaptation and planning • Opportune time for integrated soil-climate research

  24. Thanks! crimmins@u.arizona.edu http://cals.arizona.edu/climate

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