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Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity 17 February 2006

Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.de Jonathan Pershing, jpershing@wri.org. C. B. A. S. I. Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity 17 February 2006. www.basic-project.net. Content. 1. Introduction on options for international climate policy post 2012 (30 min)

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Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity 17 February 2006

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  1. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.de Jonathan Pershing, jpershing@wri.org C B A S I Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity17 February 2006 www.basic-project.net

  2. Content 1. Introduction on options for international climate policy post 2012 (30 min) 2. Interactive demonstration of the CAIT tool developed by WRI (30 min by J. Pershing) 3. Interactive demonstration of the EVOC model developed by Ecofys (30 min) 4. Interactive demonstration of the FAIR model developed by MNP/RIVM (30 min)

  3. Future international action on climate change network Collecting information • Activities • Institutions • Ideas Discussion forum www.fiacc.net Funded by • German Federal Environmental Agency • EU Commissions DG Environment

  4. Content 1. Introduction on options for international climate policy post 2012 • Interactive demonstration of the CAIT tool developed by WRI 3. Interactive demonstration of the EVOC model developed by Ecofys 4. Interactive demonstration of the FAIR model developed by MNP/RIVM

  5. Time scales of stabilization Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001

  6. Possible temperature trajectories Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001 EU climate target of 2°C above pre-industrial level • 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data; • 1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental; • 2000 to 2100, SRES projections

  7. Linking temperature to concentration Levels of CO2 concentration Preindustrial: 280 ppmCurrent: 360 ppm EU climate target Source: IPCC Syntheses Report, 2001

  8. Stabilization pathways Reference 550ppm 450ppm 400/350ppm Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only

  9. Approaches • Contraction and Convergence (C&C) • Common but Differentiated Convergence (CDC) • Multistage • South North Dialogue – Equity in the Greenhouse • Brazilian Proposal • Sectoral approaches • Triptych

  10. Contraction and Convergence • Contraction: Agreement on a global emission pathway (e.g. towards 450ppmv) • Convergence: Per capita emission converge until, e.g., 2050 Origin: Global Commons Institute www.gci.org.uk/briefings/ICE.pdf

  11. Common but differentiated convergence (CDC) • Three stages • No commitments • “No-Lose” targets • Convergence of per capita emission level to the same level in e.g. 40 years • Participation threshold: • (time dependent) globalaverage per capita emissions Höhne, den Elzen, Weiss: “Common but differentiated convergence” accepted at Climate Policy 2005

  12. Multistage approach • Participation in e.g. four stages: Reduction Moderate reduction Sustainable development policies and measures No commitments • Countries “graduate” to a next step, if threshold is passed, e.g. emissions/cap

  13. South North Dialogue • Thresholds: CO2/GDP, GHG/cap, emission growth, cumulative emissions, GDP/cap, HDI; show members of the groups • Adaptation commitment

  14. Brazilian Proposal • Emission reductions by Annex I countries proportional to contribution to temperature increase • Participation by Non-Annex I countries not defined • The only proposal still discussed under the UNFCCC, but its implementation unclear

  15. Sectoral approaches • Emission limits for particular sectors only • Emission limits as a function of production (e.g. tCO2/tSteel) • Common emission or energy efficiency standards on one sector globally

  16. Triptych National emission target

  17. Overview of tools Country level historical data Emission allocation Mitigation costs

  18. Content 1. Introduction on options for international climate policy post 2012 • Interactive demonstration of the CAIT tool developed by WRI 3. Interactive demonstration of the EVOC model developed by Ecofys 4. Interactive demonstration of the FAIR model developed by MNP/RIVM

  19. Content 1. Introduction on options for international climate policy post 2012 • Interactive demonstration of the CAIT tool developed by WRI 3. Interactive demonstration of the EVOC model developed by Ecofys 4. Interactive demonstration of the FAIR model developed by MNP/RIVM

  20. EVOC Tool Input • Historical emission data per country (hierarchy of emissions sources, all Kyoto gases, sectors) • Energy, population, GDP data from IEA • Future reference development (emissions, population, GDP) based on RIVM IMAGE implementation of the IPCC SRES scenarios Output • Emissions or emission allowances under various proposals for future international climate policy after 2012 • Contraction and convergence • Common but differentiated convergence • Multistage • Triptych • Proposal by the “South North Dialogue – Equity in the Greenhouse”

  21. Delayed participation Contraction & Convergence Common but differentiated convergence IC Threshold GHG/cap GHG/cap DC LDC Time Time

  22. Results towards 550 ppmv CO2 GHG per capita Towards 550 ppmv CO2: Threshold: 30% above world average, Convergence level: 4.5 tCO2eq/cap A1B scenario Excl. LUCF CO2

  23. Results towards 550 ppmv CO2 GHG emissions Towards 550 ppmv CO2: Threshold: 30% above world average, Convergence level: 4.5 tCO2eq/cap A1B scenario Excl. LUCF CO2

  24. Results towards 450 ppmv CO2 GHG per capita Towards 450 ppmv CO2: Threshold: 10% below world average, Convergence level: 2.9 tCO2eq/cap A1B scenario Excl. LUCF CO2

  25. Results towards 450 ppmv CO2 GHG emissions Towards 450 ppmv CO2: Threshold: 10% below world average, Convergence level: 2.9 tCO2eq/cap A1B scenario Excl. LUCF CO2

  26. Multistage Four stage emission reduction agreement • No commitments • Sustainable development policies and measures • Moderate emission limitation targets • Absolute emission reduction targets (shared according to Triptych approach) Threshold: Emissions/cap, decreasing over time

  27. Towards 550 ppmv CO2 • Stage 3 • Entry at 6-10 tCO2eq./cap • 10%-15% below reference • Stage 4 • Entry at 9-12 tCO2eq./cap • 1-5% reduction per year

  28. Time of entry towards 550 ppmv CO2

  29. Towards 450 ppmv CO2 • Stage 3 • Entry at 3.5-4 tCO2eq./cap • ~30% below reference • Stage 4 • Entry at 5-5.5 tCO2eq./cap • ~5% reduction per year

  30. Time of entry towards 450 ppmv CO2

  31. Towards 400 ppmv CO2 • Stage 3 • Entry at 3.5 tCO2eq./cap • ~30% below reference • Stage 4 • Entry at 4 tCO2eq./cap • ~8% reduction per year

  32. Time of entry towards 400 ppmv CO2

  33. Stabilization pathways Reference 550ppm 450ppm 400/350ppm Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only

  34. Stabilization pathways +50% 550ppm +45% +30% +10% 450ppm -25% 400/350ppm -60% Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only

  35. Change 1990 to 2020 towards 450 ppm CO2 • Annex I: -10% to –30% below 1990 • No participation: South Asia and Africa. • Deviate from their reference: Latin America, Middle East, East Asia and Centrally planned Asia

  36. Change 1990 to 2050 towards 450 ppm CO2 • Annex I: -70% to -90% below 1990 • Substantial deviation from reference in all Non-Annex I regions

  37. Content 1. Introduction on options for international climate policy post 2012 • Interactive demonstration of the CAIT tool developed by WRI 3. Interactive demonstration of the EVOC model developed by Ecofys 4. Interactive demonstration of the FAIR model developed by MNP/RIVM

  38. Backup slides

  39. Change 1990 to 2020 towards 550 ppm CO2 • Annex I: -5% to –25% below 1990 • No participation: South Asia, Africa, Centrally Planned Asia or excess allowances under C&C or Triptych • Deviate from their reference: Latin America, Middle East and East Asia

  40. Change 1990 to 2050 towards 550 ppm CO2 • Annex I: -40% to -80% below 1990 • Deviate from reference: Most Non-Annex I regions, except South Asia • Triptych: more reductions for coal intensive countries under these parameters

  41. Stabilization pathways +50% 550ppm +45% +30% +10% 450ppm -25% 400/350ppm -60% Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only

  42. Stabilization pathways +50% 550ppm +45% +30% +10% 450ppm -25% 400/350ppm -60% Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only

  43. Change 1990 to 2020 towards 400 ppm CO2 • Annex I: -25% to -50% below 1990 • No participation: only a very few countries • Deviate from their reference: all Non-Annex I regions

  44. Change 1990 to 2050 towards 400 ppm CO2 • Annex I: -80% to -90% below 1990 • Substantial deviation from reference in all Non-Annex I regions

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