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What We Know (and Don’t Know) about the Effects of Oil and Gas Development on Water Quality

What We Know (and Don’t Know) about the Effects of Oil and Gas Development on Water Quality. Prof. Joe Ryan University of Colorado Boulder Environmental Engineering Air Water Gas Sustainability Research Network www.airwatergas.org. Martz Conference, June 5-6, 2014. receptor. source.

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What We Know (and Don’t Know) about the Effects of Oil and Gas Development on Water Quality

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  1. What We Know (and Don’t Know) about the Effects of Oil and Gas Development on Water Quality Prof. Joe RyanUniversity of Colorado Boulder Environmental EngineeringAirWaterGasSustainability Research Network www.airwatergas.org Martz Conference, June 5-6, 2014

  2. receptor source pathway? source

  3. http://www.propublica.org/article/epa-chemicals- found-in-wyo.-drinking-water-might-be-from-fracking-825

  4. Is water quality at risk? source receptor pathway

  5. source (a release of a hazardous compound) receptor pathway

  6. source (release of a hazardous compound) receptor (humans using groundwater supply) pathway

  7. source (release of a hazardous compound) receptor (humans using groundwater supply) • pathway • (transport of • hazardous compound • to receptor)

  8. source receptor pathway potential risk

  9. Possible and Probable Pathways • Surface spills • possible surface water contamination • possible groundwater contamination • remediation – sometimes prompt, sometimes not • Weld County, July 2010-June 2011 • 77 spills involving benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes • 84% remediated by May 2012

  10. Possible and Probable Pathways • Probability of surface spills • Pspill: probability of a spill – 0.1 to 0.5 • frequency of spills (all known and reported?) • number of sites (active or total?) • ffluids spilled : fraction of fluid spilled – 0.0001 to 1 • reported volume of spills

  11. Possible and Probable Pathways • Subsurface releases • possible groundwater contamination • scenarios • well casing integrity • abandoned wells • existing faults and fractures • etc. • groundwater flow and transport modeling • EPA • AWG SRN • groundwater sampling

  12. Osborn et al., 2011. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.108(20), 8172-8176

  13. www.niobraranews.net/geology/

  14. Possible and Probable Pathways • Probability of subsurface release by well failure • Pwellfailure : probability of casing failure – 10-8 to 0.02 • what is failure? • how to measure failure? • ffluids released : fraction of fluid released – 10-6 to 0.1 • what is the severity of the failure?

  15. Possible and Probable Pathways • Probability of subsurface release by fractures • Pfractures: probability of fractures as pathway – 10-6to 0.1 • need more data, field and modeling!

  16. “Will I be able to drink the water from my well?”

  17. “Will I be able to drink the water from my well?” “The probability that your well will be contaminated is somewhere between 0.55 and 10,350 in a million.”

  18. “Will I be able to drink the water from my well?” “Maybe.”

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