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THE ITALIAN SITUATION

THE ITALIAN SITUATION. Bruxelles, February 19-20, 2004. Giorgio Boccato. For a long period Italy has shown ('80s and early '90s) one of the highest unemployment rates in Europe (mostly referred to young people) due to the entrance into the labour market of the generation born in 1960-1970

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THE ITALIAN SITUATION

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  1. THE ITALIAN SITUATION Bruxelles, February 19-20, 2004 Giorgio Boccato

  2. For a long period Italy has shown ('80s and early '90s) one of the highest unemployment rates in Europe (mostly referred to young people) due to the entrance into the labour market of the generation born in 1960-1970 (baby boom years)

  3. During the last 30 years the birth-rate has decreased: since 1993 the overall balance of the population is negative. Compared to a birth rate of 2,1 – 2,2 per family - necessary to maintain the population at a constant level - the average value foreseen for 2010 is 1,40 : from a maximum of 1,70 in the South (Campania) to a minimum of 1,20 in the North (Liguria)

  4. As a consequence the productive population presents: • A progressive reduction in numbers • A decreasing number of people entering the labour market • An ageing workforce

  5. The range between 20 and 64 year-old : • in 2000 was 35,8 million people • in 2020 it will decrease to 32,9 • The entrance flows into the labour market: • was 4,5 million people in 1990 – 95 and in 1995 – 2000; • which will be decreased to : • 3,0 millions in 2000 – 2005; • 2,8 – 2,7 millions in 2005 - 10, 2010 -15, 2015 - 20 • The percentage of over 65 out of the total population : • was 10% in 1960 (OCSE 10%); • was 16% mid ’90s (OCSE 12%); • will be 30% in 2030 (OCSE 20%).

  6. At the Lisbon (March 23 – 24th , 2000) and Stockholm (March 23 – 24th , 2001) summits the EU has stated the following employment target rates: • in 2005: • men: 67 % • women : 57 % • in 2010 : • men : 70 % • women : 60 % • as referred to the range of 55 – 64 year old people (men and women): 50 %

  7. In the ‘90s in Italy • The employment rate of the male population over 55 has strongly decreased (early retirement) • Only between 2000 an 2001 the trend turned into a positive growth • As far concerning women over 55, the participation in the labour market has always shown a positive trend • Forecasts for 2005: • Men: 40 % (it was 28% in 2001) • Women: 46 % (it was 37% in 1999 and 41% in 2001)

  8. The North- East of Italy in the last century • (Veneto, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Trentino-Alto Adige) • has been particularly affected by the demographic change • The main part of the population is between 30 and 49 year-old (baby boom); • people under 20 has decreased in 30 years of 40% • today the number of 1 year old children and 72 year old people is the same • people over 90 were 8,000 in 1981 - 25,000 in 1991 - 50,000 in 2001; • the expectation of life will increase between 1995 and 2020: • for men from 74 to 79 years • for women from 81 to 86 years • which will give rise to an increase of the pension expenditure of more then 4 billion euros.

  9. As referring to the Region of Veneto: • The birth-rate has constantly decreased from 1981 to 1984, being one of the lowest rate in Italy • Only nowadays it is showing a slight growing: • from 1,13 in 1994 has reached 1,22 in 2002 • due to : • the fact that as an average women have the first child at 24 year old (changing at national level from an average of 24 year old in 1980 to 29 in 2000); • the increased welfare; • the highest rate of immigrants (foreign women have more children then the local ones)

  10. In the Region of Veneto in 2002 • the population is: 4.512.000 inhabitants • employed people are: 1.987.000 • The unemployment rate is the lowest in Italy, and is still • decreasing: • 3,7 % in 2000 • 3,5 % in 2001 • 3,4 % in 2002 • (2,2 % men and 5,2 % women)

  11. During the last years, as an average, having 1% enhance in GDP, the employment rate increased 0,5% • (due to the development of the tertiary industry and services to people – e.g. looking after children and aged population, etc) demanding more people then the industry itself • The growing demand of working force: • has cancelled male unemployment • has strongly increased the female employment • A further increase in women employment rate (as following the trend shown in 1994 – 2001) would cancel the term housewife from our dictionary within 2021 !

  12. Immigration has been particularly exploited in our Region in the last years to satisfy the labour offer • Due to the last regulations (the so-called “Bossi – Fini” Law) • in Veneto there will be about 200.000 immigrants • (4,4 % of the population) • (mainly employed in low qualified positions) • but not sufficient to satisfy the demand • And again, the contribution by the young generation will be not enough (due to the low birth-rate)

  13. Due to the situation as explained above, • in Veneto, more then in the rest of Italy, • it isextremely important the issue of • recovering “ageing workforce” • and its- mostly tacit – “competencies”

  14. Aiming at: • getting advantages from the opportunities and contributions • which the ageing workforce is able to offer to the society and to • enterprises; • facing problems related to the ageing of people; • promoting and supporting a society for all ages .

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