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Cattle Outlook - October 2014 Insights on Cattle Market Trends

This report provides an overview of the cattle market as of October 2014, highlighting key trends and data. U.S. per capita meat consumption has reached its lowest level since 1991. The U.S. calf population is down 1.0%, with the smallest calf crop recorded since 1948. Year-to-date cattle and cow slaughter are down 6.4% and 14.1% respectively, alongside a 10.6% decrease in female slaughter. Weekly prices for steers show a positive outlook, with data indicating robust futures in the beef sector. Insights are based on USDA and other market sources.

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Cattle Outlook - October 2014 Insights on Cattle Market Trends

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  1. Cattle Outlook (title) Cattle Outlook Ron Plain October 14, 2014

  2. Source: USDA/ERS

  3. 2014 per capita meat consumption the lowest since 1991 Source: USDA/ERS

  4. U.S. Calf, 1945-2014 2014: 33.6 million head, down 1.0% Smallest calf crop since 1948 Source: USDA/NASS

  5. U.S. Beef Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Production, monthly Source: USDA/ERS

  6. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down 6.4% Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

  7. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

  8. Year-to-date cow slaughter is down 14.1% Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

  9. Year-to-date heifer slaughter is down 8.2% Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

  10. Female Share of SlaughterU.S. Federally Inspected Cattle Slaughter Year-to-date female slaughter is down 10.6% Source: USDA/AMS

  11. Cattle On Feed Sept 1 cattle on feed: down 0.8%

  12. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

  13. Cost of Gain is roughly $70/cwt Source: LMIC

  14. U.S. Commercial Beef Production Million Pounds ----- % Change ----- 2013-142014-15. - 4.9% - 5.8% . - 5.1% + 1.3% . - 6.4% - 0.9% . - 4.7% - 1.4% . - 5.3% - 2.3% *forecast

  15. 5 Area Slaughter Steer PricesChoice Steers Per Live Hundredweight *forecast

  16. Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price, Monthly Average 2000-2014 Thru Feb 2016 all cattle futures contracts are above $156 per cwt

  17. OKC 750-800# Feeder Steer Price, Monthly Average 2000-2014 Thru Sep 2015 all feeder cattle futures contracts are above $230 per cwt

  18. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

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