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Life-Cycle of Tropical Storm Erin (2007)

Life-Cycle of Tropical Storm Erin (2007). Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., and Lance F. Bosart University at Albany, State University of New York Albany, NY *with contributions from Roger Edwards, SPC 9th Annual Northeast Regional Operational Workshop 8 November 2007. Motivation.

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Life-Cycle of Tropical Storm Erin (2007)

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  1. Life-Cycle ofTropical Storm Erin (2007) Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., and Lance F. Bosart University at Albany, State University of New York Albany, NY *with contributions from Roger Edwards, SPC 9th Annual Northeast Regional Operational Workshop 8 November 2007

  2. Motivation • Widespread post-landfall rainfall and wind associated with Tropical Storm (TS) Erin during 16–23 August 2007

  3. Goals • Overview large-scale environment • Examine aspects of TS Erin life-cycle in more detail: • Incipient development to landfall along TX coast • Widespread TX rains/reintensification over OK • “PRE” over WI • KY rains and VA/NC MCS

  4. Goals • Overview large-scale environment • Examine aspects of TS Erin life-cycle in more detail: • Incipient development to landfall along TX coast • Widespread TX rains/reintensification over OK • “PRE” over WI • KY rains and VA/NC MCS

  5. Data Sources • 2.5 NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis from ESRL • 1.0 NCEP–GFS final analysis from NCAR • Soundings from University of Wyoming • Standard surface data from UAlbany • OK Mesonet data from OK Climo Survey • Radar imagery from NCAR and SPC • Precipitation analyses from NPVU • Trajectories from NOAA HYSPLIT model

  6. 250 hPa  (dam) mean and anomaly and vector wind (standard barbs) mean 9–23 August 2007 21 19 23 17 Erin track 15 13 2.5 NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis

  7. 250 hPa  (dam) mean and anomaly and vector wind (standard barbs) mean 9–23 August 2007 PRE 00–12Z/19 intense rains 06Z/21–18Z/21 reintensification 00–06Z/19 21 19 23 MCS 21Z/21–06Z/22 intense rains 12Z/16–18Z/18 17 landfall 06Z/16 15 13 2.5 NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis

  8. reintensification over Oklahoma, and Wisconsin PRE North Carolina/Virginia MCS Kentucky rains landfall DT  (K) 850–DT shear (m s1) and CI (K) Time/Date (UTC) 1.0 GFS Final Analyses Azimuth average of DT  (K), 850 hPa–DT wind shear (m s1), and CI (K)

  9. Incipient development–landfall0000 UTC 8–1200 UTC 16 Aug 2007

  10. DT  (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa  (10-4 s-1) x L=“Erin” X=DT disturbance =DT trough 1200 UTC 7 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses

  11. DT  (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa  (10-4 s-1) x L L=“Erin” X=DT disturbance =DT trough 1200 UTC 8 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses

  12. DT  (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa  (10-4 s-1) x x L L=“Erin” X=DT disturbance =DT trough 1200 UTC 9 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses

  13. DT  (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa  (10-4 s-1) x x x L L=“Erin” X=DT disturbance =DT trough 1200 UTC 10 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses

  14. DT  (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa  (10-4 s-1) x x L L=“Erin” X=DT disturbance =DT trough 1200 UTC 11 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses

  15. DT  (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa  (10-4 s-1) x x L L=“Erin” X=DT disturbance =DT trough 1200 UTC 12 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses

  16. DT  (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa  (10-4 s-1) x x L L=“Erin” X=DT disturbance =DT trough 1200 UTC 13 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses

  17. DT  (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa  (10-4 s-1) x L L=“Erin” X=DT disturbance =DT trough 1200 UTC 14 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses

  18. DT  (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa  (10-4 s-1) x x L x L=“Erin” X=DT disturbance =DT trough 1200 UTC 15 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses

  19. DT  (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa  (10-4 s-1) x x L x L=“Erin” X=DT disturbance =DT trough 1200 UTC 16 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses

  20. TX rains andOK reintensification0000 UTC 17–0000 UTC 20 Aug 2007

  21. DT  (K) and vector wind (knots), and 925–850 hPa  (10-4 s-1) Source: NPVU Erin 1200 UTC 17 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses

  22. DT  (K) and vector wind (knots), and 925–850 hPa  (10-4 s-1) Source: NPVU Erin 1200 UTC 18 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses

  23. DT  (K) and vector wind (knots), and 925–850 hPa  (10-4 s-1) Source: NPVU Erin 1200 UTC 19 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses

  24. 12Z/16 Source: NCAR image archive

  25. 18Z/16 Source: NCAR image archive

  26. 00Z/17 Source: NCAR image archive

  27. 1000 J kg-1 FWD 200 J kg-1 DRT 00Z/17 Source: NCAR image archive

  28. 06Z/17 Source: NCAR image archive

  29. 12Z/17 Source: NCAR image archive

  30. 18Z/17 Source: NCAR image archive

  31. 00Z/18 Source: NCAR image archive

  32. 00Z/18 FWD MAF 00Z/18 1800 J kg-1 130 J kg-1 Source: NCAR image archive

  33. 06Z/18 Source: NCAR image archive

  34. 12Z/18 Source: NCAR image archive

  35. 18Z/18 Source: NCAR image archive

  36. 00Z/19 Source: NCAR image archive

  37. OUN FWD 1800 J kg-1 00Z/19 1300 J kg-1 Source: NCAR image archive

  38. 06Z/19 Source: NCAR image archive

  39. 12Z/19 Source: NCAR image archive

  40. Surface  and 12Z/19 baroclinic zone Erin L

  41. X  (105 s1),  (K), and vector wind (knots)

  42. 0400–1300 UTC 19 August 2007 BREF and OK Mesonet Observations Source: Roger Edwards, NOAA/NWS/SPC

  43. L L 0500–1300Z/19 Source: Roger Edwards, NOAA/NWS/SPC

  44. Wisconsin “PRE”0000–1200 UTC 19 August

  45. 06Z/19 PRE Erin Source: NCAR image archive

  46. Surface  and 06Z/19 PRE baroclinic zone Erin L

  47. 24 h Total Precipitation (in.) ending 12Z/19 PRE Erin Source: NPVU

  48. 24 h Total Precipitation (in.) ending 12Z/19 PRE Erin OAX 12Z/19 SGF 00Z/19 Source: NPVU

  49. 700  (dam), 1000–500 , 850–500 wind (knots), and Precipitable Water (mm) L 1200 UTC 16 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses

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