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The Goldilocks Economy: Washington County's Balanced Growth and Future Outlook

Washington County, Utah, has experienced a golden era of economic growth, characterized by moderate and steady increases in nonfarm jobs. With a low unemployment rate and broad-based expansion, the county's economy appears to be recovering towards pre-bubble levels. However, potential risks remain, including overheating and external economic pressures. This analysis discusses recent job growth data, dwelling unit permits, and economic indicators that suggest Washington County is on a path of "just right" growth into 2014.

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The Goldilocks Economy: Washington County's Balanced Growth and Future Outlook

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  1. Washington County2014 Economic Summit Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist Utah Department of Workforce Services

  2. The Goldilocks Economy

  3. . . .And the Three Bears

  4. Once Upon a Time . . . There was a golden little economy in southwest Utah named Washington County.

  5. Washington County started on its trip through the new millennium with beautiful, moderate growth. . .

  6. As all smart economies know, the best measure of the business cycle is the year-to-year change in nonfarm jobs. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

  7. Two years of 10-percent or more growth Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

  8. A full-year of roughly 10-percent job loss Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

  9. “Too hot” goes hand in hand with

  10. “too cold.”

  11. Two Years of 5-to-6-percent expansion Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

  12. United States, Utah and Washington County all show gains near their long-term averages Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  13. Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry September 2012-September 2013 Not the fastest, but moderate-and-steady wins the economic race Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.

  14. Almost back to peak *Preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

  15. Almost back to peak *Preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

  16. Almost back to peak *Preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

  17. Total jobs up 2,335 *Preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

  18. Relatively broad-based expansion *Preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

  19. Washington County Employment Share by Industry Significantly lower in 2012. Significantly higher in 2012. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

  20. Just barely reaching pre-bubble levels *Preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

  21. Washington County New Hires Hires improving since mid-2009

  22. At 4.6 percent, the county’s unemployment rate is the lowest since June 2008 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  23. Beware of “spin”

  24. Number of “discouraged” workers has steadily declined Lower labor force participation rates primarily caused lower labor force participation among young workers. One month does not a trend make.

  25. When available, 2013 figures should show stronger growth. However, don’t expect growth rates to consistently reach the levels of the past two decades. Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

  26. Almost three full years of expansion.

  27. Washington County Dwelling Unit Permits Back to pre-bubble level Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

  28. Percent Change in Washington County Dwelling Unit Permits Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

  29. Washington County New Nonresidential Building Permit Valuation Nonresidential permitting typically lags residential. Millions of $ Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.

  30. Home prices started appreciating in late 2011 Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.

  31. “Bubble” gains had evaporated by 2011. Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.

  32. Homes have become somewhat less affordable as prices have increased. Source: National Association of Homebuilders; Wells Fargo Bank.

  33. Home Sales Up 28 percent in third quarter 2013 Average Wage Up 3 percent in the third quarter of 2013 Real GDP Up 3.2 Percent in 2012 New Car Sales Up 2.5 percent for third quarter 2013; 36 percent in second quarter. Unemployment First-time claims for unemployment insurance down 10 percent in 2013 Total Personal Income Up 4.8 percent in 2012

  34. The Three Bears Risksfor the economy.

  35. Papa Bear • Continued stimulus during an expansionary phase could cause overheating. • Hints of “bubble” speculation in the stock market. Investors may be too “bullish.” • Recent indications that the “Fed” will reduce bond buying.

  36. Mama Bear • Continued national budget/deficit chaos could reduce expansion. • Businesses/individuals may be afraid to invest. • Burgeoning debt reduces resources available for other uses.

  37. Baby Bear • Poor performance of the global economy. • OR • We didn’t learn our lesson about speculation. • OR • Economic effects of healthcare reform.

  38. “Bullish” on the economy

  39. Washington County should continue to experience “just right” growth through 2014.

  40. Signals Current economic indicators show no sign of deterioration in the economy

  41. Website: jobs.utah.gov/wiclick on “Browse data” then “County and statewide information”

  42. Blog: economyutah.blogspot.comSelect “Southwest” tab

  43. County e-Profiles: Historical data interactive, downloadable

  44. Economic Snapshots:Frequent updates on data presented today

  45. Local Insights: Quarterly economic update and in-depth studies

  46. Contact information available in Summit materials Lecia Parks Langston Senior Economist, Utah Department of Workforce Services 435-688-3115 lecialangston@utah.gov

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