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Navigating Demographic Shifts: The Future of Global Economies and Societies (2013)

This document analyzes shifting demographics from 1991 to 2013, focusing on the implications of an aging population and a burgeoning young workforce. It presents critical statistics such as the GINI index, urbanization trends, and projections for global population growth up to 2050. Key areas addressed include challenges in resource management, the necessity for innovative ecosystems, and strategies for sustainable economic and social development. The report emphasizes the importance of investments in education, housing, and community support to foster inclusive growth and ensure no one is left behind.

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Navigating Demographic Shifts: The Future of Global Economies and Societies (2013)

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Mark Florman June 2013

  2. The World

  3. The World in 1991 46%

  4. The World in 2013 GINI index 22% Source: World Bank

  5. Shifting Demographics

  6. Old vs. Young Old - Indebted35% of WG Young – No Debt 65% of WG

  7. 2013 – Where are all the <30s? Source: US Census Bureau

  8. World Urbanisation 2012: 50% 2030: 60% Source: Global Trends 2030, National Intelligence Council

  9. World Population Growth 18% 13% 7 BILLION 70% 2012 15% 18% 9.3 BILLION Source: United Nations Population Fund 67% 2050 Least Developed Countries Less Developed Countries More Developed Countries

  10. Global Middle Class Consumption • 2000 • 65% Old World • 2050 • 20% Old World

  11. Demographic Facts • Japan & Germany:World’s Oldest Populations • European Elderly:58m more by 2050 • European workforce ratio: 1/2 approaches

  12. Resources Land Water Minerals

  13. How Springboard Economy Springboard Society

  14. Migration Old World Shortages STEM Young New WorldSurpluses STEM Young

  15. Europe • Unprecedentedgrowth in productivity requiredfrom investing in Physical Capital Knowledge Capital HumanCapital

  16. New Flat World • Connected & communicating • Constant fight over resources • Working old & poor • Instability & anger • Online education • Sustainable energy

  17. Springboard Economy • Schools: STEM & business • Angel & Venture • Innovation ecosystems • Productivity • Apprenticeships

  18. Springboard Society • No one left behind • Business responsibility • Social impact industry • Back to work • One million jobs • Slavery (CSJ)

  19. UK Statistics 16% 53 MILLION 45% 39% 2013 30% 36% 63 MILLION Source: HM Treasury Source: Office of National Statistics 34% 2060 0-35 years old 36-65 years old Public Sector net debt as a % of GDP 66+ years old

  20. Current State of the UK • Living beyond our means • Overtaxed • Mortgaged the future • Inward Facing • Short termist • Lack of innovation • Need growth of 3% p.a.

  21. Long Term Solution • Promote innovation investments • Environment for flexible talent development • Encourage entrepreneurship • Shape disruptive technologies • Foster ecosystems

  22. Short Term Spending Review • HMT will make £11.5bn overall savings from Government departments year 2015/16. • NHS budget to help fund investment in social care. • Investments in long-term capital infrastructure. • Will announce sums allocated to Local Enterprise Partnerships.

  23. UK Housing

  24. Facts on UK Housing • 1.8 million households on waiting lists • 60,000 households made homeless per year • 4.6 million homes needed in next 20 years • 2,000 housing associations • Demographics and new household formation increases pressure • Income-housing cost ratio worsening • Impact of universal credit on credit quality of HA’s

  25. Homes & Communities • Communities that support each other • Innovation in work/home environments • Socially inclusive societies • Early intervention to support families

  26. Invest in Communities • Construction & housing key catalyst to UK GDP • Private investment via social impact investing • Tax relief for social enterprises • Support new social enterprises • Private equity & venture capital • Static communities • Innovation in Elderly & Social Care

  27. Invest in Markets • Measure and value social impact... ERR • Form a development service company to aggregate development plans • Aggregation of assets, income streams and risks • Migrate £50bn of bank finance towards bond market (currently £7.5bn) • Co-op housing – borrow against unfettered assets • Regulator to consider treatment of grants (as assets)

  28. Thank you

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