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1.4 Demographic Change

1.4 Demographic Change. Is urbanisation a solution or a problem for improving sanitation ?. Learning objectives : to gain insights about the role of demography in sanitation planning and implementation. Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden. The Urban Sanitation Challenge.

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1.4 Demographic Change

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  1. 1.4 Demographic Change Is urbanisation a solution or a problem for improving sanitation? Learning objectives: to gain insights about the role of demography in sanitation planning and implementation Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

  2. The Urban Sanitation Challenge World population (in billions): 2000 2050 (estimate) Total 6 9.3 Rural3 Urban3 3 6 Thus, new housing on virgin land in new cities provides excellent opportunities for new sanitation options to fulfil the Millennium Development Goals for sanitation Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

  3. Population growth rates and the proportion living in informal settlements: means for the largest cities (%) % LA & C = Latin America and the Caribbean Source: UNDP & Unicef, 2003

  4. City council capacity to do its part Proportion of wastewater being effectively treated % Treated waste-water Source: UNDP & Unicef, 2003

  5. Evolution of the relationship between residents and utilities in Sweden subscriber customer partner 1970 1990 Time Supply of water Cannot treat all water at acceptable cost H2O-law All want to connect Price Envir. law All water can be cleaned Demand Simple treatment plants Chemical society Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

  6. Demographic patterns are decisive: The growth-infrastructure hypotheses Population transi-tion transi-tion Time Slow develop-ment of the infrastructure Lowering portion or even absolute decrease of infrastructure Rapid improvement Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

  7. How to manage sanitation arrangements? A key question is about control, not degree of centralisation. Two extremes: Turn-key management where a utility (private or public) provides the service and the residents just pay the bill Own-key management where single households or housing associations initiate, build and control, while they put to use available skills, materials, and other local resources WC & sewerage Dry urine-diverting toilet Septic tank Turn-keyOwn-key Dug latrine Aqua privy Jan-Olof Drangert. Linköping University, Sweden

  8. Example 1: Evolution of w&s in Kisumu town, Kenya Population 350,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 50,000 1900 1950 1963 2000 Own- key Indepen-dence Turn-key Source: Drangert et al., 2002

  9. Example 2: Evolution of w&s in Norrköping, Sweden Norrköping (thousands) Town area expansion Town area expansion Town area expansion First piped water Source: Drangert & Hallström, 2002

  10. Hypotheses on best management option Population transi-tion transi-tion Time Turn-key Turn-key Turn-key proportions own-key own-key own-key Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

  11. Economic development and W&S in Cranfield, UKNational GDP per person real with 0.88% and 2.15% per year trend lines Water Closets becoming popular in capital city Newly installed WCs discharging to ditches, Hagley Road Ordure is emptied anywhere at nightfall; The city’s first public wash house opened in Kent Street Mind where you tread, Sir, for the children have been here' One third of city using unimproved pit latrines First sewage farm acquired City trying to convert to bucket latrines as improvement 'One in three artisan families still had to share external toilet with neighbours' 45% households access bucket latrines (1 per 10 HHs) 15% using unimproved pit latrines; Over half houses get WCs - most still outside open 'drainage [in one slum court] is so vile that the air seems positively putrid' 20% lacking a WC Still shared toilets for slums Household toilets generally achieved 'Cost reflective tariffs' required for newly privatised providers (300 year sewer replacement cycle?) Source: Cranfield university, UK

  12. Evolution of indoor water taps in rural Sweden 10 Mil 90% 100% BUT, what about the impact of urbanisation? 63% 5 Mil 50% 70% 29% 17% 10% 1900 1950 2000 Gradual improvement towards full coverage Most rural people without tap indoor moved to town! Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

  13. Why do we often act as if we were only a few hundred million people on earth? • Small farmers understand and practise reuse, but urban residents do not • Ever more people live in big villages, towns and cities • Most farmers have had access to chemical fertilisers this far • Change comes with a cost • But, there is also a saving; better food security Local experience global understanding However: We still act as if we were a few hundred million people on earth! Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

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