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The validation of three Human Reliability Quantification techniques -THERP, HEART, and JHEDI

2. This page left blank intentionally. 3. Human Reliability Assessment (HRA). Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) deals with the assessment of human error potential in a system and usually occurs within a quantitative risk assessment framework.. 4. 3 Basic Functions of Human Reliability Assessment.

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The validation of three Human Reliability Quantification techniques -THERP, HEART, and JHEDI

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    1. 1 The validation of three Human Reliability Quantification techniques -THERP, HEART, and JHEDI Written by Barry Kirwan Presented by Alena VanWinkle

    2. 2

    3. 3 Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) deals with the assessment of human error potential in a system and usually occurs within a quantitative risk assessment framework.

    4. 4 3 Basic Functions of Human Reliability Assessment The identification of human errors The prediction of their likelihood The reduction of their likelihood if required

    5. 5 Why Validate an HRA? If HRA’s could identify performance problems and also improve performance during the prediction process this would be a powerful tool used in solving human performance problems!

    6. 6 Kirwan’s series of papers, in this presentation, is concerned primarily with the valid prediction of the likelihood or probability of human errors (known as quantification) in the form of : H.E.P. Human Error Probabilities HEP = number of errors occurred number of opportunities for error

    7. 7 The Central Tenet of HRA

    8. 8 If the HEP is not accurate, or is optimistic……

    9. 9 The validation of HRA techniques relies implicitly on the collection of real HEP data.

    10. 10 CORE-DATA Is one such collection of real HEP data that can be utilized for validation purposes.

    11. 11 If an HRA technique is found valid by its author. It must be validated accurate and reliable by many different assessors on different occasions.

    12. 12 While there are several HRAs There has been very few validations

    13. 13 Human Reliability Assessors guide.

    14. 14 In all three reviews it was clear… There is insufficient validations of techniques to draw firm conclusions on the techniques’ predictive accuracy and consistency.

    15. 15 HRA techniques fall generally into two categories Those that use a database. (e.g. THERP, JHEDI, HEART) Those that use expert opinions. (e.g. APJ, PC, SLIM, IDM)

    16. 16 Data based HRAs Use a collection of generic error probabilities.

    17. 17 Quasi-data-base HEPs are then formed. Via the assessors manipulation and interrogations of real incident data and expert judgments.

    18. 18 Expert based HRAs Uses expert judgments of particular scenarios and PSFs to render information into HEPs

    19. 19 Part 1

    20. 20 THERP Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction

    21. 21

    22. 22 HEART Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique

    23. 23

    24. 24 JHEDI Justification of Human Error Data Information

    25. 25

    26. 26 This study as a whole is attempting to answer three major Validation questions

    27. 27

    28. 28 The way in which these questions are addressed in the study, and the answers to them, are dealt with in the following presentations!

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