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Post-Election Review: The Nation and the States

Post-Election Review: The Nation and the States. Jared Bernstein CBPP bernstein@cbpp.org 12/3/12. An Election that Broadly Supported a Role for Gov’t. Obama vs Rom/Ryan: Very different vision of fiscal policy and role of gov’t in economy. States: FL rejects TABOR, tax caps

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Post-Election Review: The Nation and the States

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  1. Post-Election Review:The Nation and the States Jared Bernstein CBPP bernstein@cbpp.org 12/3/12

  2. An Election that Broadly Supported a Role for Gov’t • Obama vs Rom/Ryan: Very different vision of fiscal policy and role of gov’t in economy. • States: • FL rejects TABOR, tax caps • NH rejects no income tax amendment • MI slams an amendment requiring a two-thirds vote in to pass any tax increase. • CA passes tax measures rather than face educ cuts • (TX Texas Republican party: “Mass deportation of these individuals [undocumented workers] would neither be equitable or practical.”)

  3. Not All Sweetness and Light, of course… • House R’s still support their budget, austerity, gridlock, entitlement cuts, etc. • Everyone seems willing to cut NDD way back • State and local aid constitutes 42% of the federal budget outside of Medicare, Social Security, defense, and interest payments • Shared goal for greater spending cuts than tax increases • State Medicaid expansions in doubt • Little concern re still-weak 2013 economy (though POTUS opening cliff offer strong on this!)

  4. NDD Cuts Hit States

  5. State Budgets: Improving, Yes; Out of Woods, No

  6. Housing Market Improving, Even in Hardest Hit States

  7. So, What Happens Now? • Fiscal Cliff • But, is this really America’s biggest problem? • How about poverty, inequality, growth, mobility, opportunity?

  8. Stabilizing the Debt/GDP Ain’t Out of Our Reach

  9. The Safety Net Worked!

  10. Safety Net, cont…

  11. Source: CBO

  12. Source: CBO

  13. Family Income Growth: Full Employment

  14. CBO’s Potential GDP Slows Sharply

  15. This Can Be Changed • Immigration reform to boost labor supply • Long-term decline prime-aged, male employment rates • Underinvestment! • Human capital • Capital services • Public goods

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