Central and Eastern Europe

1. Central and Eastern Europe Historical Overview & Current Developments

2. Introduction • Central and Eastern Europe: in the spotlight since 1991 • Especially this academic year: • December 2003: Russian Duma elections • March 2004: Russian Presidential Elections • May 2004: EU accession for 8 central European states  hence; the study of central and Eastern Europe is very relevant • From my own experience, it is also a constant frustration of eastern European diplomats: lack of knowledge of Eastern European history & culture

3. History & culture • CEECs have a very rich and varied culture and history you can learn a lot from it, e.g. That there are very divergent trends taking place in these countries • even though all part of SU or SU sphere of influence, still both history and current developments prove that these countries cannot all be looked at through the same spectre • in studying the post-Soviet region, one witnesses very divergent influences and developments, that were present both 200 yrs ago as well as now.

4. Structure of the course • In this introduction, I want to do two things: • first of all, I want to elaborate a bit on the history of this region and show how central and eastern Europe took the geographical, institutional and political shape it has today. • Secondly, I want to go into the recent developments in this area, which makes Central and Eastern Europe and even more interesting area to study.

5. 1. History • Before starting the historical overview, it is crucial to illuminate the divide between Central and Eastern Europe. • Some countries, most importantly Poland, the Baltic states and the former Czechoslovakia have been shifted back and forth between East and West througout history. They were part of different empires, (eg Ukraine Belarus part of Russian Empire), and e.g. The Baltic states were ‘annexed’ by the Soviet Union during the Second World War in 1940. The geopolitical picture of this region therefore differs considerably if you would look 200 yrs back or 80 yrs back or if you would look at it now. (elaborate with help of historical maps). • Currently the line is often drawn between (possibly) EU and non-EU countries to divide Europe in three belts: Western Europe (the current EU member states), Central Europe (mainly comprising the candidate member states - Poland, the Czech Republic, Sloavakia, the three Baltic states Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Hungary – Romania and Bulgaria are often perceived as ‘Southern Europe’. Thirdly, Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, and the Russian Federation, or more broadly, all the members of the CIS.)

6. Of course, this constellation will soon change, when the second belt dissolves into the first one, and central Europe disappears, redrawing the picture down to Western Europe (the EU) and Eastern Europe (the CIS). With this future prospect, it is not surprising why some policymakers and diplomats speak of their fear for newly emerging ‘dividing lines’ or polarisation. • There is no time here to cover the whole history of central and eastern europe. Therefore, I will highlight some defining moments in this history. Of course, you can always contact me later for an exhaustive booklist if you really want to get into it!

7. Historical highlights • 8th-11th C: slavic tribes ‘tribes’, Moscow and Novogord cities develop • 1240: Mongol invasion; many parts of what is now Russia are occupied by Ghengis Khan’s Golden Horde (until 1480) because of this, Russia is cut off from the West and remains for 2 centuries in a distinct Asian sphere of influence. (first moment when central and eastern europe diverged: russia cut off, no renaissance, Poland: many contacts with west) • 15-16th C: Renaissance sets in in central europe. Russia, still struggling with the Mongol presence in the 15th C and in the misses out on these cultural developments. Simultaneously in central europe, a power struggle is going on between the developing Habsburg empire and the Turkish invasions. Both Hungary and Croatia turn to the Habsburg empire for protection against the Ottomans  this also shows nascent affiliations between central european country and empire that will later develop.

8. Higlights Russian history • 1569: Polish-Lithuanian dynasty turns into P-L Commonwealth. Stretches out from Baltic to Black sea, including the Belarusian lands and Kiev. • 17th C: Central Europe becomes a battlefield in which Polish, Austrian and Hungarian armies fought against the Turks. After beating the Turks, Hungarian lands are subjected to Habsburg domination. • 17th C: at the same time Russian empire is developing fast (also:Siberia colonisat Russia gains a lot of territory eastwards) • from 18thC onwards: Russian empire also wanted to expand westward (and the Habsburgs eastward) - at the cost of Central Europe. e.g. Partition of Poland in 1773, 1793 and 1795, resulting in Poland disappearing (temporarily) from the map of Europe. • Ukraine and Belarus also became part of the Russian Empire and are considered to be the ‘little, younger brothers’ of Russia.

9. History highlights • Also in the 18th C, Peter the Great, tsar of Russia, tries to catch up with Europe by introducing some innovative reforms (elaborate a bit). Tsarina Catherine the Great continues his policy at the end of the 18th C, she’s also responsible for the Polish partitions. • 19th C: Marked by numerous wars (war Napoleon-Russia, Balkan wars, Krym war...) and revolutions (in Poland against Russian domination, in the Habsburg empire 1948  resulting in the dual monarchy of ‘Austro- Hungary’ in 1867 (and later annexes Bosnia- Hercegovina in 1908 (will a.o. Lead to WWI through assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo by Princip) • After WWI and the Russian Revolution of 1917: whole map of Europe shaken up; empires have collapsed independence everywhere in central Europe. For Belarus, Ukraine; very short, soon became part of the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics). For the others: interbellum, after WWII under Soviet influence

10. 1930s: collectivisation and dekulakisation, Stalin conducts cruel purges that leaves hundreds of thousands in labour camps or dead. • WWII: Baltic States and Part of Poland annexed through german-soviet agreement in Molotov-Von Ribbentrop pact. WWII very harsh on Central and Eastern Europe • 1945-1989: Eventually during and after WWII, most central European regimes succumb to Soviet influence. The three Baltic States become part of the Soviet Union, whereas communist regimes are installed in countries like Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Poland (divided in Yalta) • 1950s-60s Soviet ‘thaw’ instigated by Nikita Chrushchëv after the death of Stalin in 1953. Hungarian uprising in 1956. Didn’ t last: that same Chrushchëv surrects the Berlin Wall in 1961, thereby effectuating the Iron Curtain: the Cold War is full on again between East and West. Also the Prague Spring in 1968 is supressed violently by the Soviet Army.

11. 1980s Last Soviet secretary general Mikhail Sergeevich Gorbachëv introduces some reforms with irreversible consequences: perestroika and especially glasnost’ gives a.o. The Baltic states the opportunity to break free. (by publishing (because of glasnost) the papers of the Molotov-Von Ribbentrop pact, the invasion of the Baltic states was claimed to be illegal).  gave Baltic states a reason to demand independence • 1989: the ‘domino autumn’. after the fall of the Berlin wall on November 9 1989, the central european communist regimes (Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland) collapse one after another. The communists relinquish their power monopoly.

12. From 1990 onwards, the Soviet members states declare state sovereignty, Lithuania 11 March 1990 • putsch of 18 Aug 1991: independences confirmed afterwards Georgia 9 April 1991;Russia state sov 12 juni1991 Estonia 20 Aug 1991; Latvia 21 Aug 1991; Ukraine 24 Aug 1991; Belarus 25 aug 1991; Moldova 27 Aug 1991; Kyrgyzstan 31 Aug 1991;Uzbekistan 1 Sept 1991; Tajikistan 9 Sept 1991; Armenia 21 Sept 1991; Turkmenistan 27 Oct 1991; Kazakhstan 16 Dec 1991; • 25/12/1991: USSR ceases to exist. (on 8 December, 1991, CIS was founded by Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Other ex soviet states except the Baltic states join CIS later on). • I will now tackle some thematic issues in Central and Eastern Europe that surfaced over the past 12 years since 1991.

13. The Challenge of reforms in the past decade (1991 - now) • All the states in central Europe and the post-Soviet area have faced the enormous challenge of conducting rapid reforms aimed at becoming a market economy, state building, democratisation, the development of civil society etc. This is such a huge task that one cannot expect to fulfill it in a decade. • Nevertheless, some states performed remarkably better in this transition than others. Different studies and reports (like those of Nations in transit, Freedom House) show that corruption levels in countries like Ukraine, Belarus, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are high, whereas levels of liberalisation and democratisation there are deemed low.

14. 1. Democratisation, Civil Society and Minority Rights • Most of the candidate EU member states have made serious work of these topics, albeit sometimes under pressure of meeting the EU acquis communautaire standards that not only demand to live up to economic but also democratic standards. • A good example of this is Hungary and its innovative legislation on minority rights, intended in the first place to serve as an example for the neighbouring countries and to protect the rights of Hungarians minorities living abroad, but simultaneously this legislation is to the advantage of the Roma minorities who are all too often taunted and discriminated in Central and Eastern Europe.

15. A less successful example is Belarus, often dubbed the ‘forgotten heart of Europe’, as well as ‘an old theme park of communism’ or the ‘black hole of Europe’. Virtually no reforms have been pulled through in this republic, especially Alyaksandr Lukashenka became president in 1994. • Before 1994, a national identity based on the Polish – Lithuanian heritage began to develop slowly but steadily. When Lukashenka became president this was put to a stop. Intent on reinstating the good old Soviet times, Luka organised two referenda that resulted the reinstatement of aSoviet type of flag, coat of arms, the Soviet anthem etc.

16. Civil society was virtually being outlawed, as well as free press. Opposition leaders are constantly being persecuted and locked up. Some journalists have disappeared; the few newspapers that still dare to write articles critical of the government are being shut down. Foreign ngos are the constant subject of financial controls and are often closed down as well. Needless to say that this country has not made the progress that the candidate member states have made on the level of democratisation and civil society.

17. 2. Divergent foreign policies: Central Europe Immediately after the collapse of communism, the Baltic states, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia made a clear European choice. There are three main reason that are often stated to explain their unambiguous choice: • Economic: linking itself with the European Union’s market economies eases trade and lowers taxes & tariffs • Political: the political side shouldn’t be underestimated as well. Although the political dialogue with other countries is weak, the EU is currently working hard to obtain an internal political stronger common position on foreign policy and political priorities, eg through a constitution etc. (also new neighbourhood initiative) • Linked with the political motivation is the third ‘reason’, that is cultural-historical aspect. Speeches and discussions of both EU policymakers and the politicians of the candidate member states have been full of rethorics stating a ‘return to Europe’ and a ‘common history’ etc etc. Mostly, this refers to the times preceding the inclusion of central European lands by the Russian empire, or to Austro-Hungary etc.

18. A direct consequence of their ‘return to Europe’, is that these countries turn their back to the Post-Soviet area, especially Russia. There’s still good political relations with the neighbouring Belarus and especially Ukraine. Poland is one of the main champions of Ukraine joining the EU.It also tries to mediate for Blearus who is in a difficult position. But Russia is mainly seen as the country whose influence they want to escape forever by joining the EU. (they probably link it too much to the former USSR) Hence the already mentioned fear for new ‘dividing lines’ between Western and Eastern Europe! Nevertheless, this also shouldn’t be overstated: trade figures between Russia and the candidate member states are still very high and the pipelines for Russian gas and oil exports that are now running through Ukraine and Belarus are planned to be replaced by a Polish deal.

19. The Outsider States • These, namely Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus, that lie between the future EU and Russia, have not done so well in the transition and they suffer still from serious problems and lack of reforms. • Moreover, they fall out of the boat of enlargement (Ukraine really wants to become member) and will be new neighbours, with new disadvantages (eg visa needed for Poland) • Reforms in Ukraine were performed inadequately and insufficiently and corruption levels are extremely high. The reputation of the Ukrainian president has been seriously discredited and damaged since various scandals surfaced since 2000, most importantly the murder of a journalist which president Kuchma is supposed to have commisioned.

20. Moreover, Ukraine proffers a ‘multi-vector foreign policy’, meaning by this that it wants to establish contacts with different areas and organisations; In practice, this means that Ukraine sends out very ambiguous signs of on the one hand wanting to join the European Union, and other hand being a member of the CIS and signing just last week an agreement joining a ‘common economic space’ of the CIS. • This kind of contradictory actions make it not surprising that the European Union is not convinced by Ukraine ‘first and foremost’ ambition to join the European Union and is reluctant even to grant associate membership and demands serious reforms (and probably also clearer foreign policy choices) from Ukraine.

21. As for Belarus, it performs even worse than Ukraine in levels of corruption and inability to pull through the essential reforms , democratization and state building. The continued state-led economy resulted in a heavy, unhealthy dependence on Russia, especially for energy resources. • On top of that, in 1996 Belarus initiated a process of rapprochement with Russia that resulted in a Union State in 1999. The union implies subsidies and cheap energy prices for Belarus, whereas for the Russian president, the maintaining of a union with Belarus lends him a stronger political position (because of the many people in favour of this union). However, since Putin became president, the Russia side is increasingly growing weary of

22. the Belarusian ‘freeriding’and demands for reduced prices of goods and would rather see Belarus incorporated to become the 90th subject of the Russian Federation.The last weeks, there has also been talk of halting the cheap energy prices for Belarus. Because of its enormous dependence on Russian subsidies, this could seriously unsettle the Belarusian economy. • It shows that the Soviet heritage here has not been completely digested or put behind. On of the most burning issues in the other post-Soviet countries, being their national identity, is as already said being completely ignored in Belarus and almost doesn’t exist anymore. A couple of months ago, the last school were all the education was exclusively in Belarusian was shut down on orders of the president.

23. This shows the effect of more than 200 hundred years of Russian and Soviet ‘occupation on a country. Belarus sticks to a sort of Russian-Soviet heritage and remains in a sort of stagnation. • This also proves that historical developments can over the centuries produce a lasting effect on the current state of affairs in some countries of Central and Eastern Europe.

24. The CIS • A last topic I want to touch upon is the Commonwealth of independent states, which has developed slowly but steadily since 1991. At first it seemed intent on becoming the Eastern European answer to the European Union, but the last years have demonstrated that the organisation is an empty box and that it mainly exists on papers. • Many scholars also agree on the fact that the bi-annual meeting of the leaders of the CIS is more of a talking shop in which president Putin maintains his bilateral relations with the other members. The CIS is often perceived as the economic (and military) backyard of Russia. Even Russian scholars do not deny this.

25. Also, the CIS clearly has become some kind of common denominator for an endless string of subregional initiatives, like the Eurasian Economic Community (May 2001: Eurasian Economic Community Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, the Common Economic Zone (2003: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan), the GUUAM (1996 Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Moldova), the Shanghai five (1996: China, Russia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan ), etc. Some countries are members of different subregional organisations at the same time. This only confirms the empty shell that the CIS is. • Nevertheless, it is an important instrument for Russia to formalise the relations with its ‘near abroad’, in which most countries are economically heavily dependent on Russia. This situation does not seem prone to change any time soon in the near future. • The CIS in the end is not an institutional answer to the European Union, and very few people believe it ever will be.

26. Conclusion • Through this introductory course, I tried to give you a small overview of the history and recent developments in Central and Eastern Europe. Of course one cannot capture the history and current politics of such a vast area over such a vast period over time, so this was mainly meant as a little taste of what is and has been going on in that region. Still, I tried to illustrate with a few examples how the turbulent and at times tragic history of this region still affects the countries in htier policy choices and their propensity to reforms. • In any case, with the upcoming Duma and Presidential elections in Russia and the major part of Central Europe joining the European Union, this year promises to be very challenging for those who want to study and analyse Central and Eastern Europe.