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Civilian Casualties in the Colombian conflict: A New Approach to Human Security

Civilian Casualties in the Colombian conflict: A New Approach to Human Security. Jorge Restrepo, Michael Spagat Washington, DC August, 2004. Intro. Colombian conflict – left-wing guerrillas (FARC, ELN), right-wing illegal paramilitaries (AUC) and government forces

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Civilian Casualties in the Colombian conflict: A New Approach to Human Security

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  1. Civilian Casualties in the Colombian conflict: A New Approach to Human Security Jorge Restrepo, Michael Spagat Washington, DC August, 2004

  2. Intro • Colombian conflict – left-wing guerrillas (FARC, ELN), right-wing illegal paramilitaries (AUC) and government forces • We have a great dataset on the conflict – more than 21,000 events, actors, types of events, georeferencing, casualties, etc. • We focus on civilian casualties, analyzed by actor and event type

  3. Main Findings The main human security threats are (in order): • Paramilitary massacres in isolated rural areas (killings) • Guerrilla massacres in isolated rural areas (killings) • Guerrilla bombings in isolated rural areas and the five biggest cities (injuries)

  4. Total Civilian Killings and Injuries

  5. Casualties 1988-2003

  6. Portfolio of Attacks: Paramilitaries vs. Guerrillas

  7. Civilian Casualties in Attacks by Group

  8. Civilian Killings: Guerrilla Attacks

  9. Civilian Killings: Paramilitary Attacks

  10. Civilians Injured by Group

  11. Civilian Injuries: Guerrilla Attacks

  12. Civilians Killed Per Attack by Group

  13. Casualties by event type

  14. Civilians Injured per Attack by Group

  15. FARC vs. ELN casualties in attacks

  16. Civilian Casualties per Attack: FARC vs. ELN

  17. Civilians killed in massacres by the paramilitaries: CDF

  18. Civilians killed in massacres by the guerrillas: CDF

  19. Civilians injured in guerrilla bombings: CDF

  20. Conclusion • We can pinpoint the forms of civilian casualties in attacks with known authors with remarkable specificity. • More than 1/3 of them are accounted for by paramilitary and guerrilla massacres and guerrilla bombings in isolated rural areas. • Add in guerrilla bombings in the five biggest cities and we have almost 40% of the casualties.

  21. Conclusion • In other words rural security is the big problem but there is a serious urban terrorism issue as well. • Colombia is notably lacking in strong local security institutions, to a large extend due to the country’s sad history of abusive paramilitarism

  22. Conclusion • There are significant pockets of local wealth, in particular, big landowners and cattle farmers that must be tapped to support local security. • We will need more good micro data on conflict to fulfil a larger research programme.

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