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Danish Travel Account - Use of mirror statistics

Danish Travel Account - Use of mirror statistics Selma Mulalic Danish Travel Account - Use of mirror statistics International trade in services Travel account: Main sources Asymmetries The treatment of transactions involving tour operators resident in third countries

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Danish Travel Account - Use of mirror statistics

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  1. Danish Travel Account - Use of mirror statistics Selma Mulalic

  2. Danish Travel Account - Use of mirror statistics • International trade in services • Travel account: • Main sources • Asymmetries • The treatment of transactions involving tour operators resident in third countries

  3. International trade in services • Part of BOP Statistics • BOP Division in Statistics Denmark • Balance of Payments Manual • Manual on Statistics of international trade in services

  4. Main sources • Survey on trade in services • Travel surveys • Other sources

  5. Survey on trade in services • Settlements statistics terminated by end 2004 • Survey on trade in services from July / third quarter 2004

  6. Sample – based on settlements statistics • Sample: App. 1.600 respondents (CVR-units) • One part found by using a cut-off method • After the cut-off sample was found – a stratified sample was drawn from the remaining part of the population Totalsample Population Cut off sample Stratified sample

  7. Travel account Travel covers primarily the goods and services acquired from an economy by travellers during visits of less than one year to that economy.

  8. Sources

  9. Main sources • Survey of trade in services • Frontier surveys • Surveys at accommodation establishments • Household survey

  10. Asymmetries Asymmetry data / Mirror statistics

  11. Asymmetries • TG-Travel: - Asymmetries on Travel - Asymmetries on Night Stays - Asymmetries on Number of Travellers • EU-25, USA, Japan • 3 years

  12. Asymmetries • Asymmetry data is supplemented by: - Structure of the collection system - Description of the surveys - Main problems in the implementation

  13. Asymmetries • Important item on the agenda of each TG-Travel meeting • UK – Spain Travel asymmetry • Bilateral talks on bilateral asymmetry

  14. Asymmetries • Asymmetry data is a very useful information • Overview on global Intra – EU bilateral Travel asymmetries • Year to year development in bilateral asymmetries

  15. Asymmetries • Asymmetry data could be used for more practical purposes • Error detection • Confirm figures • In automatic balancing system

  16. Asymmetries = 0

  17. Asymmetries Asymmetries Asymmetries max 10% = 0

  18. Asymmetries Asymmetries Asymmetries max 10% = 0 min 25%

  19. Asymmetries • Asymmetry data can be viewed is an overall picture of other countries’ reports, and gives us an impression whether there is room (or need) for alterations • But it is almost impossible to use mirror statistics directly

  20. Asymmetries • Why ? - Structure of the collection system - Estimation methods - Different approaches to the same issues - High variance, measurement errors…

  21. Asymmetries • Why ? - Structure of the collection system - Estimation methods - Different approaches to the same issues - High variance, measurement errors…

  22. Asymmetries • Tour operators resident in third countries • Expenditure related to use of second homes abroad • Durable and valuable goods • Same-day travel • …

  23. The treatment of transactions involving tour operators resident in third countries • Two approaches: 1. Merchanting (net) approach 2. Invoice (gross) approach

  24. The treatment of transactions involving tour operators resident in third countries A B DK 120 100

  25. The treatment of transactions involving tour operators resident in third countries • Merchanting (net) approach Country A A B DK Country B 120 100 Country A

  26. Invoice (gross) approach The treatment of transactions involving tour operators resident in third countries Country A Country B A B DK Country DK 120 100 Country DK

  27. Goods and services 1. Merchanting 2. Durable and valuable goods (Travel) 3. Invoices which include both goods and services 4. Illegal activities 5. Customized software (Computer services)

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