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The Lockwood Analytic Method for Prediction (LAMP): 15 January 2002

The Lockwood Analytic Method for Prediction (LAMP): 15 January 2002. An Innovative Methodological Approach to the Problem of Predictive Analysis. Briefing Sequence. Background of LAMP Philosophical basis for LAMP The 12 Steps of the LAMP Process Limitations of the LAMP

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The Lockwood Analytic Method for Prediction (LAMP): 15 January 2002

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  1. The Lockwood Analytic Method for Prediction (LAMP): 15 January 2002 An Innovative Methodological Approach to the Problem of Predictive Analysis

  2. Briefing Sequence • Background of LAMP • Philosophical basis for LAMP • The 12 Steps of the LAMP Process • Limitations of the LAMP • Potential Applications for LAMP • Conclusions

  3. Background of LAMP • Developed by Dr. Jonathan Lockwood in 1992 while in DCI Exceptional Intelligence Analyst Program • Utilized by numerous graduate students in JMIC as core methodology in Masters Degree theses • Software exists in early prototype only • First published in Defense Intelligence Journal in Fall 1994

  4. Philosophical Basis of LAMP • THE FUTURE IS: • Not Predetermined • The Sum Total of All Interactions of Free Will • A Dynamic Spectrum of Constantly Changing Relative Probabilities

  5. The 12 Steps of LAMP • Determine the Predictive Issue • Specify the Actors Bearing on the Problem • Conduct in-depth study of perceptions and intentions of each actor • Specify courses of action for each actor • Determine the major scenarios • Calculate the number of alternate futures

  6. Linkages Within the LAMP Method

  7. The 12 Steps of LAMP (Continued) • Do pairwise comparison of alternate futures • Rank order the alternate futures • Analyze consequences of alternate futures • Determine focal events for alternate futures • Develop indicators for each focal event • Assess the potential for transposition between alternate futures

  8. The Concept of the Analytic Map

  9. Limitations of LAMP • Exponential explosion problem with alternate futures • Analyst can identify “most likely” future, but cannot assign a quantifiable probability of occurrence for each future • Little allowance for ambiguity

  10. Potential Applications for LAMP • Indications and Warning • Estimative Intelligence • Common analytical method for intelligence • Computerized analytic tool kit • Training • Interface between intelligence, academia and public policy communities • Tactical intelligence (?)

  11. Conclusions • LAMP does not grant the gift of prophecy • LAMP is not an infallible method • LAMP does provide a logical and powerful method for analyzing the future’s many possible paths

  12. WHAT ARE YOUR QUESTIONS?

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