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2008 Real Estate Forum - Residential Market – Kootenai County

2008 Real Estate Forum - Residential Market – Kootenai County . KOOTENAI COUNTY HOUSING MARKET IN 2007. Back to the Future. The Rise and Fall of the Housing Market. It’s A Long Flight to the Train Station. BACK TO THE FUTURE –. Residential History: 2001-. 2003

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2008 Real Estate Forum - Residential Market – Kootenai County

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  1. 2008 Real Estate Forum -Residential Market – Kootenai County

  2. KOOTENAI COUNTY HOUSING MARKET IN 2007 • Back to the Future • The Rise and Fall of the Housing Market • It’s A Long Flight to the Train Station

  3. BACK TO THE FUTURE –

  4. Residential History: 2001- • 2003 • median incomes and wealth higher • strong immigration • household growth and housing investment • finding affordable housing. • record breaking year • 2000 • home price inflation • net worth income growth • affordability remained in check • home sales, • homeownership • residential construction • all set new records in 1999 • 2001 • uncertainty of the economy • rising home prices • housing affordability remains the greatest concern • 30 percent of their income on housing • housing sector strong • prices and rose faster than inflation • homeownership set yet another record • falling interest rates • 2002 • emerging from recession • housing sector continues resilience •  rock-solid home prices •  historically low mortgage interest rates •  build home equity at astounding rates. • gains realized better houses. • added mortgage debt

  5. Residential: History2001- • 2005 • difficult for first-time buyers • rising tide of housing wealth • consumer spending boost • low mortgage interest rates, • house price gains • near-record cash-out refinances and • record home equity borrowing • construction far exceeds long run demand • 2004 • Construction activity strong • The housing boom • finance crisis in 1998 • economic recession in 2001, • job losses in 2002–3. • low interest rates • home prices and sales climb • home values generate wealth • sustain consumer spending • records again in 2004 • homeownership posted an all-time high • 2006 • affordability problems • higher prices • rising interest rates • price appreciation slowed • investor demand plummeted sales • single-family starts drop off • 2007 • subprime default rates • vacant homes for sale, and • buyers waiting on the sidelines to see • if prices drift lower • threat of recession- back to 2001

  6. By THE NUMBERS

  7. 135,000 1620

  8. Kootenai Residential “Diversity” (2007 Sales) Single Family Waterfront Home Single Family Home < 1.0 acres Condo/townhouse 71% 7% 3% Single Family Waterfront Secondary Single Family Home on Acreage Other 1% 7% 9%

  9. Average “Sold”/Median PriceThe Past…2001 - 2007

  10. Active vs. Sold by Price Range 06’ = 3125 07’ =2691 2707

  11. Residential: 1 mil + Market

  12. Kootenai County – Residential 2007 $246,000

  13. 2007 .… year (s) of Turbulence

  14. The Factors - 2007 Interest rates - 6.3% to 6.6 to 6.2 Sub Prime lending issues GDP 2.1 % to 4.9% to -0.1% Consumer Price Index -2.1% to 6.0% to 4.4% Unemployment 4.5% to 4.8%

  15. THE “NATIONAL” SCENE …OVERALL PICTURE GLUM, NO RELIEF IN SIGHT 12 YEAR LOW FOR HOME SALES…. EXISTING HOME SALES… 5TH HIGHEST ON RECORD…. WAITING FOR RATE CUTS… DECLINE IN EXISTING HOME PRICES…. RATES DOWN…. CONSUMERS WAITING FOR RIGHT TIME… REFINANCE ACTIVITY UP…. UMEMPLOYMENT AT 2 YEAR HIGH…. PENDING HOME SALES INDEX DOWN…. RECESSION…???

  16. Sales Data 2006 vs. 2007

  17. KEY INDICATORS OF THE HOUSING MARKET BUYER/SELLER RATIOS AVERAGE TIME ON MARKET HOME BUYER ACTIVITY ASKING VS. SALES PRICE MULTIPLE OFFERS ANNUAL PRICE APPRECIATION HOUSING AVAILABILITY

  18. Key Points to Take Home • ALL -Pay attention to the data where it and what is actually doing . . .not just what the media is saying. We have multiple markets. • Sellers – time on market, inventory, list to sale %, buyer activity • Buyers – inventories, days on market, mortgage apps, prices rise, list to sale % • REALTOR’S ® And lender must be much, much closer. Develop a team of experts

  19. KOOTENAI COUNTY HOUSING MARKET IN 2007 • Back to the Future • The Rise and Fall of the Housing Market • It’s A Long Flight to the Train Station

  20. The light at the end of the tunnel….

  21. FOR MORE DETAILS AND SPECIFIC KOOTENAI COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREA STATISTICS, and THE NATIONAL HOUSING MARKETS GO TO WWW.CDAREALTORS.COM or www.jchs.harvard.edu Have a great day….

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