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Randy Mullett Vice President - Government Relations & Public Affairs, Con-way Inc. FHWA Talking Freight Webinar Feb

Riding the U.S. and Global Economic Rebound - Opportunities and Challenges. Randy Mullett Vice President - Government Relations & Public Affairs, Con-way Inc. FHWA Talking Freight Webinar February 16, 2011 . Con-way Today – who we are.

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Randy Mullett Vice President - Government Relations & Public Affairs, Con-way Inc. FHWA Talking Freight Webinar Feb

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  1. Riding the U.S. and Global Economic Rebound - Opportunities and Challenges Randy Mullett Vice President - Government Relations & Public Affairs, Con-way Inc. FHWA Talking Freight Webinar February 16, 2011

  2. Con-way Today – who we are • $5.0 Billion Industry Leader in Freight Transportation and Logistics • Con-way Freight • Con-way Truckload • Menlo Worldwide Logistics • 30,000 employees worldwide • Over 500 operating locations • 11,500 trucks, 35,000 trailers, 20 million sq ft warehouse space globally • 150,000 customer pickups and deliveries daily in N. America • Nearly one billion miles annually moving freight on USA highways • Consume 150 million gallons of diesel fuel annually

  3. Trucking / Intermodal Statistics • Over 500,000 trucking companies in the US • 97% have fewer than 20 trucks • Pay 40% of HTF total and drive 13% of the miles • 70% of all goods (by weight) in the US move by truck • 83% by value • 97% of all consumer goods • Future modal shares are expected to stay fairly constant • Over 80% of US communities are served only by truck • Shipments traveling >500 miles only 13.4% of the truck freight market • If rail intermodal capacity doubled by 2020, market share will be only 1.8% vs. today’s 1.5% if capacity stayed constant

  4. A Framework to Remember We can not separate economic growth from the growth of transport resources and infrastructure.

  5. Motor Carrier Trends Demand

  6. ATA’s For-Hire Tonnage Index Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100 Through December 2010 In 2010 Truck Tonnage was up 5.7% Source: ATA

  7. ATA’s For-Hire TL Loads Index Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100 Through November 2010 Source: ATA

  8. Total Business Inventories-to-Sales Ratio (Includes retail, wholesale, and manufacturing; Through November 2010) Sources: Department of Commerce and ATA

  9. Loads Jan - Nov 2010 Compared with Same Period in 2009 Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report

  10. Motor Carrier Trends Supply

  11. Trucking Failures Failures only includes fleets with at least five trucks Source: Avondale Partners, LLC

  12. U.S. Class 8 Truck Sales Monthly Retail Sales; Through December 2010 • Annual Figures • 2005: 253k • 2006: 284k • 2007: 151k • 2008: 133k • : 95k • : 106k Source: Wards

  13. For-Hire TL Supply vs Demand 2005 = 100 TL Loads Index TL Tractor Count Index Oversupply Through November 2010 Source: ATA

  14. Long-Run Freight Transportation Outlook

  15. Growth in TonnageTotal Increase from 2009 to 2021 Rail Intermodal Air Trucking Waterborne Rail Carload Pipeline Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2021

  16. Distribution of Tonnage by Mode: 2009 vs 2021 2009 2021 Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2021

  17. Crude Oil Prices WTI, US$ per Barrel Source: IHS Global Insight

  18. On-HighwayDieselPrices Price Per Gallon Source: Energy Information Administration

  19. Why does it matter? • Freight in all modes will increase (26% by 2020) with resulting capacity constraints • Energy and sustainability concerns will increase. • Rates will increase. Delays will occur. Economy will be affected. • Supply chain disruptions will result in “near sourcing” • Feds, States, and Communities will rediscover that freight and freight infrastructure are the underpinnings of economic development.

  20. Challenges • CSA • Hours of Service Rules • Fuel / Energy / Sustainability • International Competitiveness • Livability • Physical Capacity / Productivity

  21. Railroad, Airline, Trucking, and Private BusinessTotal Factor Productivity 1987–2008

  22. Politics: Potential opportunity? • Underlying issues that existed during our freight capacity “crisis” are unchanged • Changes in Congress • No Tax Increase Pledge • No Earmarks • Tea Party Influence • State Responsibility

  23. Remember ECONOMIC GROWTH cannot be separated from TRANSPORT GROWTH.

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